5,577 research outputs found

    On the Generation of Realistic and Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Algorithmic Recourse

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    This recent widespread deployment of machine learning algorithms presents many new challenges. Machine learning algorithms are usually opaque and can be particularly difficult to interpret. When humans are involved, algorithmic and automated decisions can negatively impact people’s lives. Therefore, end users would like to be insured against potential harm. One popular way to achieve this is to provide end users access to algorithmic recourse, which gives end users negatively affected by algorithmic decisions the opportunity to reverse unfavorable decisions, e.g., from a loan denial to a loan acceptance. In this thesis, we design recourse algorithms to meet various end user needs. First, we propose methods for the generation of realistic recourses. We use generative models to suggest recourses likely to occur under the data distribution. To this end, we shift the recourse action from the input space to the generative model’s latent space, allowing to generate counterfactuals that lie in regions with data support. Second, we observe that small changes applied to the recourses prescribed to end users likely invalidate the suggested recourse after being nosily implemented in practice. Motivated by this observation, we design methods for the generation of robust recourses and for assessing the robustness of recourse algorithms to data deletion requests. Third, the lack of a commonly used code-base for counterfactual explanation and algorithmic recourse algorithms and the vast array of evaluation measures in literature make it difficult to compare the per formance of different algorithms. To solve this problem, we provide an open source benchmarking library that streamlines the evaluation process and can be used for benchmarking, rapidly developing new methods, and setting up new experiments. In summary, our work contributes to a more reliable interaction of end users and machine learned models by covering fundamental aspects of the recourse process and suggests new solutions towards generating realistic and robust counterfactual explanations for algorithmic recourse

    Meta-learning algorithms and applications

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    Meta-learning in the broader context concerns how an agent learns about their own learning, allowing them to improve their learning process. Learning how to learn is not only beneficial for humans, but it has also shown vast benefits for improving how machines learn. In the context of machine learning, meta-learning enables models to improve their learning process by selecting suitable meta-parameters that influence the learning. For deep learning specifically, the meta-parameters typically describe details of the training of the model but can also include description of the model itself - the architecture. Meta-learning is usually done with specific goals in mind, for example trying to improve ability to generalize or learn new concepts from only a few examples. Meta-learning can be powerful, but it comes with a key downside: it is often computationally costly. If the costs would be alleviated, meta-learning could be more accessible to developers of new artificial intelligence models, allowing them to achieve greater goals or save resources. As a result, one key focus of our research is on significantly improving the efficiency of meta-learning. We develop two approaches: EvoGrad and PASHA, both of which significantly improve meta-learning efficiency in two common scenarios. EvoGrad allows us to efficiently optimize the value of a large number of differentiable meta-parameters, while PASHA enables us to efficiently optimize any type of meta-parameters but fewer in number. Meta-learning is a tool that can be applied to solve various problems. Most commonly it is applied for learning new concepts from only a small number of examples (few-shot learning), but other applications exist too. To showcase the practical impact that meta-learning can make in the context of neural networks, we use meta-learning as a novel solution for two selected problems: more accurate uncertainty quantification (calibration) and general-purpose few-shot learning. Both are practically important problems and using meta-learning approaches we can obtain better solutions than the ones obtained using existing approaches. Calibration is important for safety-critical applications of neural networks, while general-purpose few-shot learning tests model's ability to generalize few-shot learning abilities across diverse tasks such as recognition, segmentation and keypoint estimation. More efficient algorithms as well as novel applications enable the field of meta-learning to make more significant impact on the broader area of deep learning and potentially solve problems that were too challenging before. Ultimately both of them allow us to better utilize the opportunities that artificial intelligence presents

    Statistical analysis of grouped text documents

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    L'argomento di questa tesi sono i modelli statistici per l'analisi dei dati testuali, con particolare attenzione ai contesti in cui i campioni di testo sono raggruppati. Quando si ha a che fare con dati testuali, il primo problema è quello di elaborarli, per renderli compatibili dal punto di vista computazionale e metodologico con i metodi matematici e statistici prodotti e continuamente sviluppati dalla comunità scientifica. Per questo motivo, la tesi passa in rassegna i metodi esistenti per la rappresentazione analitica e l'elaborazione di campioni di dati testuali, compresi i "Vector Space Models", le "rappresentazioni distribuite" di parole e documenti e i "contextualized embeddings". Questa rassegna comporta la standardizzazione di una notazione che, anche all'interno dello stesso approccio di rappresentazione, appare molto eterogenea in letteratura. Vengono poi esplorati due domini di applicazione: i social media e il turismo culturale. Per quanto riguarda il primo, viene proposto uno studio sull'autodescrizione di gruppi diversi di individui sulla piattaforma StockTwits, dove i mercati finanziari sono gli argomenti dominanti. La metodologia proposta ha integrato diversi tipi di dati, sia testuali che variabili categoriche. Questo studio ha agevolato la comprensione sul modo in cui le persone si presentano online e ha trovato stutture di comportamento ricorrenti all'interno di gruppi di utenti. Per quanto riguarda il turismo culturale, la tesi approfondisce uno studio condotto nell'ambito del progetto "Data Science for Brescia - Arts and Cultural Places", in cui è stato addestrato un modello linguistico per classificare le recensioni online scritte in italiano in quattro aree semantiche distinte relative alle attrazioni culturali della città di Brescia. Il modello proposto permette di identificare le attrazioni nei documenti di testo, anche quando non sono esplicitamente menzionate nei metadati del documento, aprendo così la possibilità di espandere il database relativo a queste attrazioni culturali con nuove fonti, come piattaforme di social media, forum e altri spazi online. Infine, la tesi presenta uno studio metodologico che esamina la specificità di gruppo delle parole, analizzando diversi stimatori di specificità di gruppo proposti in letteratura. Lo studio ha preso in considerazione documenti testuali raggruppati con variabile di "outcome" e variabile di gruppo. Il suo contributo consiste nella proposta di modellare il corpus di documenti come una distribuzione multivariata, consentendo la simulazione di corpora di documenti di testo con caratteristiche predefinite. La simulazione ha fornito preziose indicazioni sulla relazione tra gruppi di documenti e parole. Inoltre, tutti i risultati possono essere liberamente esplorati attraverso un'applicazione web, i cui componenti sono altresì descritti in questo manoscritto. In conclusione, questa tesi è stata concepita come una raccolta di studi, ognuno dei quali suggerisce percorsi di ricerca futuri per affrontare le sfide dell'analisi dei dati testuali raggruppati.The topic of this thesis is statistical models for the analysis of textual data, emphasizing contexts in which text samples are grouped. When dealing with text data, the first issue is to process it, making it computationally and methodologically compatible with the existing mathematical and statistical methods produced and continually developed by the scientific community. Therefore, the thesis firstly reviews existing methods for analytically representing and processing textual datasets, including Vector Space Models, distributed representations of words and documents, and contextualized embeddings. It realizes this review by standardizing a notation that, even within the same representation approach, appears highly heterogeneous in the literature. Then, two domains of application are explored: social media and cultural tourism. About the former, a study is proposed about self-presentation among diverse groups of individuals on the StockTwits platform, where finance and stock markets are the dominant topics. The methodology proposed integrated various types of data, including textual and categorical data. This study revealed insights into how people present themselves online and found recurring patterns within groups of users. About the latter, the thesis delves into a study conducted as part of the "Data Science for Brescia - Arts and Cultural Places" Project, where a language model was trained to classify Italian-written online reviews into four distinct semantic areas related to cultural attractions in the Italian city of Brescia. The model proposed allows for the identification of attractions in text documents, even when not explicitly mentioned in document metadata, thus opening possibilities for expanding the database related to these cultural attractions with new sources, such as social media platforms, forums, and other online spaces. Lastly, the thesis presents a methodological study examining the group-specificity of words, analyzing various group-specificity estimators proposed in the literature. The study considered grouped text documents with both outcome and group variables. Its contribution consists of the proposal of modeling the corpus of documents as a multivariate distribution, enabling the simulation of corpora of text documents with predefined characteristics. The simulation provided valuable insights into the relationship between groups of documents and words. Furthermore, all its results can be freely explored through a web application, whose components are also described in this manuscript. In conclusion, this thesis has been conceived as a collection of papers. It aimed to contribute to the field with both applications and methodological proposals, and each study presented here suggests paths for future research to address the challenges in the analysis of grouped textual data

    Classical and quantum algorithms for scaling problems

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    This thesis is concerned with scaling problems, which have a plethora of connections to different areas of mathematics, physics and computer science. Although many structural aspects of these problems are understood by now, we only know how to solve them efficiently in special cases.We give new algorithms for non-commutative scaling problems with complexity guarantees that match the prior state of the art. To this end, we extend the well-known (self-concordance based) interior-point method (IPM) framework to Riemannian manifolds, motivated by its success in the commutative setting. Moreover, the IPM framework does not obviously suffer from the same obstructions to efficiency as previous methods. It also yields the first high-precision algorithms for other natural geometric problems in non-positive curvature.For the (commutative) problems of matrix scaling and balancing, we show that quantum algorithms can outperform the (already very efficient) state-of-the-art classical algorithms. Their time complexity can be sublinear in the input size; in certain parameter regimes they are also optimal, whereas in others we show no quantum speedup over the classical methods is possible. Along the way, we provide improvements over the long-standing state of the art for searching for all marked elements in a list, and computing the sum of a list of numbers.We identify a new application in the context of tensor networks for quantum many-body physics. We define a computable canonical form for uniform projected entangled pair states (as the solution to a scaling problem), circumventing previously known undecidability results. We also show, by characterizing the invariant polynomials, that the canonical form is determined by evaluating the tensor network contractions on networks of bounded size

    Quantifying Equity Risk Premia: Financial Economic Theory and High-Dimensional Statistical Methods

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    The overarching question of this dissertation is how to quantify the unobservable risk premium of a stock when its return distribution varies over time. The first chapter, titled “Theory-based versus machine learning-implied stock risk premia”, starts with a comparison of two competing strands of the literature. The approach advocated by Martin and Wagner (2019) relies on financial economic theory to derive a closed-form approximation of conditional risk premia using information embedded in the prices of European options. The other approach, exemplified by the study of Gu et al. (2020), draws on the flexibility of machine learning methods and vast amounts of historical data to determine the unknown functional form. The goal of this study is to determine which of the two approaches produces more accurate measurements of stock risk premia. In addition, we present a novel hybrid approach that employs machine learning to overcome the approximation errors induced by the theory-based approach. We find that our hybrid approach is competitive especially at longer investment horizons. The second chapter, titled “The uncertainty principle in asset pricing”, introduces a representation of the conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in which the betas and the equity premium are jointly characterized by the information embedded in option prices. A unique feature of our model is that its implied components represent valid measurements of their physical counterparts without the need for any further risk adjustment. Moreover, because the model’s time-varying parameters are directly observable, the model can be tested without any of the complications that typically arise from statistical estimation. One of the main empirical findings is that the well-known flat relationship between average predicted and realized excess returns of beta-sorted portfolios can be explained by the uncertainty governing market excess returns. In the third chapter, titled “Multi-task learning in cross-sectional regressions”, we challenge the way in which cross-sectional regressions are used to test factor models with time-varying loadings. More specifically, we extend the procedure by Fama and MacBeth (1973) by systematically selecting stock characteristics using a combination of l1- and l2-regularization, known as the multi-task Lasso, and addressing the bias that is induced by selection via repeated sample splitting. In the empirical part of this chapter, we apply our testing procedure to the option-implied CAPM from chapter two, and find that, while variants of the momentum effect lead to a rejection of the model, the implied beta is by far the most important predictor of cross-sectional return variation

    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volume

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    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volum

    Low- and high-resource opinion summarization

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    Customer reviews play a vital role in the online purchasing decisions we make. The reviews express user opinions that are useful for setting realistic expectations and uncovering important details about products. However, some products receive hundreds or even thousands of reviews, making them time-consuming to read. Moreover, many reviews contain uninformative content, such as irrelevant personal experiences. Automatic summarization offers an alternative – short text summaries capturing the essential information expressed in reviews. Automatically produced summaries can reflect overall or particular opinions and be tailored to user preferences. Besides being presented on major e-commerce platforms, home assistants can also vocalize them. This approach can improve user satisfaction by assisting in making faster and better decisions. Modern summarization approaches are based on neural networks, often requiring thousands of annotated samples for training. However, human-written summaries for products are expensive to produce because annotators need to read many reviews. This has led to annotated data scarcity where only a few datasets are available. Data scarcity is the central theme of our works, and we propose a number of approaches to alleviate the problem. The thesis consists of two parts where we discuss low- and high-resource data settings. In the first part, we propose self-supervised learning methods applied to customer reviews and few-shot methods for learning from small annotated datasets. Customer reviews without summaries are available in large quantities, contain a breadth of in-domain specifics, and provide a powerful training signal. We show that reviews can be used for learning summarizers via a self-supervised objective. Further, we address two main challenges associated with learning from small annotated datasets. First, large models rapidly overfit on small datasets leading to poor generalization. Second, it is not possible to learn a wide range of in-domain specifics (e.g., product aspects and usage) from a handful of gold samples. This leads to subtle semantic mistakes in generated summaries, such as ‘great dead on arrival battery.’ We address the first challenge by explicitly modeling summary properties (e.g., content coverage and sentiment alignment). Furthermore, we leverage small modules – adapters – that are more robust to overfitting. As we show, despite their size, these modules can be used to store in-domain knowledge to reduce semantic mistakes. Lastly, we propose a simple method for learning personalized summarizers based on aspects, such as ‘price,’ ‘battery life,’ and ‘resolution.’ This task is harder to learn, and we present a few-shot method for training a query-based summarizer on small annotated datasets. In the second part, we focus on the high-resource setting and present a large dataset with summaries collected from various online resources. The dataset has more than 33,000 humanwritten summaries, where each is linked up to thousands of reviews. This, however, makes it challenging to apply an ‘expensive’ deep encoder due to memory and computational costs. To address this problem, we propose selecting small subsets of informative reviews. Only these subsets are encoded by the deep encoder and subsequently summarized. We show that the selector and summarizer can be trained end-to-end via amortized inference and policy gradient methods

    Bayesian Nonlinear Tensor Regression with Functional Fused Elastic Net Prior

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    Tensor regression methods have been widely used to predict a scalar response from covariates in the form of a multiway array. In many applications, the regions of tensor covariates used for prediction are often spatially connected with unknown shapes and discontinuous jumps on the boundaries. Moreover, the relationship between the response and the tensor covariates can be nonlinear. In this article, we develop a nonlinear Bayesian tensor additive regression model to accommodate such spatial structure. A functional fused elastic net prior is proposed over the additive component functions to comprehensively model the nonlinearity and spatial smoothness, detect the discontinuous jumps, and simultaneously identify the active regions. The great flexibility and interpretability of the proposed method against the alternatives are demonstrated by a simulation study and an analysis on facial feature data

    Increasing trust in new data sources: crowdsourcing image classification for ecology

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    Crowdsourcing methods facilitate the production of scientific information by non-experts. This form of citizen science (CS) is becoming a key source of complementary data in many fields to inform data-driven decisions and study challenging problems. However, concerns about the validity of these data often constrain their utility. In this paper, we focus on the use of citizen science data in addressing complex challenges in environmental conservation. We consider this issue from three perspectives. First, we present a literature scan of papers that have employed Bayesian models with citizen science in ecology. Second, we compare several popular majority vote algorithms and introduce a Bayesian item response model that estimates and accounts for participants' abilities after adjusting for the difficulty of the images they have classified. The model also enables participants to be clustered into groups based on ability. Third, we apply the model in a case study involving the classification of corals from underwater images from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that the model achieved superior results in general and, for difficult tasks, a weighted consensus method that uses only groups of experts and experienced participants produced better performance measures. Moreover, we found that participants learn as they have more classification opportunities, which substantially increases their abilities over time. Overall, the paper demonstrates the feasibility of CS for answering complex and challenging ecological questions when these data are appropriately analysed. This serves as motivation for future work to increase the efficacy and trustworthiness of this emerging source of data.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure

    Semiparametric posterior corrections

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    We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional nonparametric posterior, we target the functional of interest by transforming the entire distribution with a Bayesian bootstrap correction. We provide conditions for the resulting one-step posterior\textit{one-step posterior} to possess calibrated frequentist properties and specialize the results for several canonical examples: the integrated squared density, the mean of a missing-at-random outcome, and the average causal treatment effect on the treated. The procedure is computationally attractive, requiring only a simple, efficient post-processing step that can be attached onto any arbitrary posterior sampling algorithm. Using the ACIC 2016 causal data analysis competition, we illustrate that our approach can outperform the existing state-of-the-art through the propagation of Bayesian uncertainty.Comment: 53 page
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