13,930 research outputs found
Compound sequential change-point detection in parallel data streams
We consider sequential change-point detection in parallel data streams, where each stream has its own change point. Once a change is detected in a data stream, this stream is deactivated permanently. The goal is to maximize the normal operation of the pre-change streams, while controlling the proportion of post-change streams among the active streams at all time points. Taking a Bayesian formulation, we develop a compound decision framework for this problem. A procedure is proposed that is uniformly optimal among all sequential procedures which control the expected proportion of post-change streams at all time points. We also investigate the asymptotic behavior of the proposed method when the number of data streams grows large. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the use and performance of the proposed method
The Viability and Potential Consequences of IoT-Based Ransomware
With the increased threat of ransomware and the substantial growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) market, there is significant motivation for attackers to carry out IoT-based ransomware campaigns. In this thesis, the viability of such malware is tested.
As part of this work, various techniques that could be used by ransomware developers to attack commercial IoT devices were explored. First, methods that attackers could use to communicate with the victim were examined, such that a ransom note was able to be reliably sent to a victim. Next, the viability of using "bricking" as a method of ransom was evaluated, such that devices could be remotely disabled unless the victim makes a payment to the attacker. Research was then performed to ascertain whether it was possible to remotely gain persistence on IoT devices, which would improve the efficacy of existing ransomware methods, and provide opportunities for more advanced ransomware to be created. Finally, after successfully identifying a number of persistence techniques, the viability of privacy-invasion based ransomware was analysed.
For each assessed technique, proofs of concept were developed. A range of devices -- with various intended purposes, such as routers, cameras and phones -- were used to test the viability of these proofs of concept. To test communication hijacking, devices' "channels of communication" -- such as web services and embedded screens -- were identified, then hijacked to display custom ransom notes. During the analysis of bricking-based ransomware, a working proof of concept was created, which was then able to remotely brick five IoT devices. After analysing the storage design of an assortment of IoT devices, six different persistence techniques were identified, which were then successfully tested on four devices, such that malicious filesystem modifications would be retained after the device was rebooted. When researching privacy-invasion based ransomware, several methods were created to extract information from data sources that can be commonly found on IoT devices, such as nearby WiFi signals, images from cameras, or audio from microphones. These were successfully implemented in a test environment such that ransomable data could be extracted, processed, and stored for later use to blackmail the victim.
Overall, IoT-based ransomware has not only been shown to be viable but also highly damaging to both IoT devices and their users. While the use of IoT-ransomware is still very uncommon "in the wild", the techniques demonstrated within this work highlight an urgent need to improve the security of IoT devices to avoid the risk of IoT-based ransomware causing havoc in our society. Finally, during the development of these proofs of concept, a number of potential countermeasures were identified, which can be used to limit the effectiveness of the attacking techniques discovered in this PhD research
The construct validity of the main student selection tests for medical studies in Germany
Standardized ability tests that are associated with intelligence are often used
for student selection. In Germany two different admission procedures to select
students for medical studies are used simultaneously; the TMS and the HAM-Nat.
Due to this simultaneous use of both a detailed analysis of the construct validity
is mandatory. Therefore, the aim of the study is the construct validation of both
selection procedures by using data of 4,528 participants (Mage = 20.42, SD = 2.74)
who took part in a preparation study under low stakes conditions. This study
compares different model specifications within the correlational structure of
intelligence factors as well as analysis the g-factor consistency of the admission
tests. Results reveal that all subtests are correlated substantially. Furthermore,
confirmatory factor analyses demonstrate that both admission tests (and their
subtests) are related to g as well as to a further test-specific-factor. Therefore,
from a psychometric point of view, the simultaneous use of both student selection
procedures appears to be legitimate
Annual SHOT Report 2018
SHOT is affiliated to the Royal College of PathologistsAll NHS organisations must move away from a blame culture towards a just and learning culture. All clinical and laboratory staff should be encouraged to become familiar with human factors and ergonomics concepts. All transfusion decisions must be made after carefully assessing the risks and benefits of transfusion therapy. Collaboration and co-ordination among staff is vital
CFLIT: Coexisting Federated Learning and Information Transfer
Future wireless networks are expected to support diverse mobile services,
including artificial intelligence (AI) services and ubiquitous data
transmissions. Federated learning (FL), as a revolutionary learning approach,
enables collaborative AI model training across distributed mobile edge devices.
By exploiting the superposition property of multiple-access channels,
over-the-air computation allows concurrent model uploading from massive devices
over the same radio resources, and thus significantly reduces the communication
cost of FL. In this paper, we study the coexistence of over-the-air FL and
traditional information transfer (IT) in a mobile edge network. We propose a
coexisting federated learning and information transfer (CFLIT) communication
framework, where the FL and IT devices share the wireless spectrum in an OFDM
system. Under this framework, we aim to maximize the IT data rate and guarantee
a given FL convergence performance by optimizing the long-term radio resource
allocation. A key challenge that limits the spectrum efficiency of the
coexisting system lies in the large overhead incurred by frequent communication
between the server and edge devices for FL model aggregation. To address the
challenge, we rigorously analyze the impact of the computation-to-communication
ratio on the convergence of over-the-air FL in wireless fading channels. The
analysis reveals the existence of an optimal computation-to-communication ratio
that minimizes the amount of radio resources needed for over-the-air FL to
converge to a given error tolerance. Based on the analysis, we propose a
low-complexity online algorithm to jointly optimize the radio resource
allocation for both the FL devices and IT devices. Extensive numerical
simulations verify the superior performance of the proposed design for the
coexistence of FL and IT devices in wireless cellular systems.Comment: The paper has been accepted for publication by IEEE Transactions on
Wireless Communications (March 2023
A study of uncertainty quantification in overparametrized high-dimensional models
Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy
machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to
yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural
networks. Several methods, ranging from temperature scaling to different
Bayesian treatments of neural networks, have been proposed to mitigate
overconfidence, most often supported by the numerical observation that they
yield better calibrated uncertainty measures. In this work, we provide a sharp
comparison between popular uncertainty measures for binary classification in a
mathematically tractable model for overparametrized neural networks: the random
features model. We discuss a trade-off between classification accuracy and
calibration, unveiling a double descent like behavior in the calibration curve
of optimally regularized estimators as a function of overparametrization. This
is in contrast with the empirical Bayes method, which we show to be well
calibrated in our setting despite the higher generalization error and
overparametrization
Consent and the Construction of the Volunteer: Institutional Settings of Experimental Research on Human Beings in Britain during the Cold War
This study challenges the primacy of consent in the history of human experimentation and argues that privileging the cultural frameworks adds nuance to our understanding of the construction of the volunteer in the period 1945 to 1970. Historians and bio-ethicists have argued that medical ethics codes have marked out the parameters of using people as subjects in medical scientific research and that the consent of the subjects was fundamental to their status as volunteers. However, the temporality of the creation of medical ethics codes means that they need to be understood within their historical context. That medical ethics codes arose from a specific historical context rather than a concerted and conscious determination to safeguard the well-being of subjects needs to be acknowledged. The British context of human experimentation is under-researched and there has been even less focus on the cultural frameworks within which experiments took place. This study demonstrates, through a close analysis of the Medical Research Council's Common Cold Research Unit (CCRU) and the government's military research facility, the Chemical Defence Experimental Establishment, Porton Down (Porton), that the `volunteer' in human experiments was a subjective entity whose identity was specific to the institution which recruited and made use of the subject. By examining representations of volunteers in the British press, the rhetoric of the government's collectivist agenda becomes evident and this fed into the institutional construction of the volunteer at the CCRU. In contrast, discussions between Porton scientists, staff members, and government officials demonstrate that the use of military personnel in secret chemical warfare experiments was far more complex. Conflicting interests of the military, the government and the scientific imperative affected how the military volunteer was perceived
Mathematical models to evaluate the impact of increasing serotype coverage in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines
Of over 100 serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae, only 7 were included in the first pneumo- coccal conjugate vaccine (PCV). While PCV reduced the disease incidence, in part because of a herd immunity effect, a replacement effect was observed whereby disease was increasingly caused by serotypes not included in the vaccine. Dynamic transmission models can account for these effects to describe post-vaccination scenarios, whereas economic evaluations can enable decision-makers to compare vaccines of increasing valency for implementation. This thesis has four aims. First, to explore the limitations and assumptions of published pneu- mococcal models and the implications for future vaccine formulation and policy. Second, to conduct a trend analysis assembling all the available evidence for serotype replacement in Europe, North America and Australia to characterise invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by vaccine-type (VT) and non-vaccine-types (NVT) serotypes. The motivation behind this is to assess the patterns of relative abundance in IPD cases pre- and post-vaccination, to examine country-level differences in relation to the vaccines employed over time since introduction, and to assess the growth of the replacement serotypes in comparison with the serotypes targeted by the vaccine. The third aim is to use a Bayesian framework to estimate serotype-specific invasiveness, i.e. the rate of invasive disease given carriage. This is useful for dynamic transmission modelling, as transmission is through carriage but a majority of serotype-specific pneumococcal data lies in active disease surveillance. This is also helpful to address whether serotype replacement reflects serotypes that are more invasive or whether serotypes in a specific location are equally more invasive than in other locations. Finally, the last aim of this thesis is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of increas- ing serotype coverage in PCVs using a dynamic transmission model. Together, the results highlight that though there are key parameter uncertainties that merit further exploration, divergence in serotype replacement and inconsistencies in invasiveness on a country-level may make a universal PCV suboptimal.Open Acces
Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice with Stock Market Loss Framing: Explaining the Empirical Evidence
We develop a life-cycle model with optimal consumption, portfolio choice, and flexible work hours for households with loss-framing preferences giving them disutility if they experience losses from stock investments. Structural estimation using U.S. data shows that the model tracks the empirical age-pattern of stock market participants’ financial wealth, stock shares, and work hours remarkably well. Including stock market participation costs in the model allows us to also predict low stock market participations rates observed in the overall population. Allowing for heterogeneous agents further improves explanatory power and accounts for the observed discrepancy in wealth accumulation between stockholders and non-stockholders
Simulation and Optimization of Scheduling Policies in Dynamic Stochastic Resource-Constrained Multi-Project Environments
The goal of the Project Management is to organise project schedules to complete projects before their completion dates, specified in their contract. When a project is beyond its completion date, organisations may lose the rewards from project completion as well as their organisational prestige. Project Management involves many uncertain factors such as unknown new project arrival dates and unreliable task duration predictions, which may affect project schedules that lead to delivery overruns. Successful Project Management could be done by considering these uncertainties. In this PhD study, we aim to create a more comprehensive model which considers a system where projects (of multiple types) arrive at random to the resource-constrained environment for which rewards for project delivery are impacted by fees for late project completion and tasks may complete sooner or later than expected task duration. In this thesis, we considered two extensions of the resource-constrained multi-project scheduling problem (RCMPSP) in dynamic environments. RCMPSP requires scheduling tasks of multiple projects simultaneously using a pool of limited renewable resources, and its goal usually is the shortest make-span or the highest profit. The first extension of RCMPSP is the dynamic resource-constrained multi-project scheduling problem. Dynamic in this problem refers that new projects arrive randomly during the ongoing project execution, which disturbs the existing project scheduling plan. The second extension of RCMPSP is the dynamic and stochastic resource-constrained multi-project scheduling problem. Dynamic and stochastic represent that both random new projects arrivals and stochastic task durations. In these problems, we assumed that projects generate rewards at their completion; completions later than a due date cause tardiness costs, and we seek to maximise average profits per unit time or the expected discounted long-run profit. We model these problems as infinite-horizon discrete-time Markov decision processes
- …