A framework for the simulation of structural software evolution

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2008 ACM.As functionality is added to an aging piece of software, its original design and structure will tend to erode. This can lead to high coupling, low cohesion and other undesirable effects associated with spaghetti architectures. The underlying forces that cause such degradation have been the subject of much research. However, progress in this field is slow, as its complexity makes it difficult to isolate the causal flows leading to these effects. This is further complicated by the difficulty of generating enough empirical data, in sufficient quantity, and attributing such data to specific points in the causal chain. This article describes a framework for simulating the structural evolution of software. A complete simulation model is built by incrementally adding modules to the framework, each of which contributes an individual evolutionary effect. These effects are then combined to form a multifaceted simulation that evolves a fictitious code base in a manner approximating real-world behavior. We describe the underlying principles and structures of our framework from a theoretical and user perspective; a validation of a simple set of evolutionary parameters is then provided and three empirical software studies generated from open-source software (OSS) are used to support claims and generated results. The research illustrates how simulation can be used to investigate a complex and under-researched area of the development cycle. It also shows the value of incorporating certain human traits into a simulation—factors that, in real-world system development, can significantly influence evolutionary structures

Learning by stochastic serializations

Complex structures are typical in machine learning. Tailoring learning algorithms for every structure requires an effort that may be saved by defining a generic learning procedure adaptive to any complex structure. In this paper, we propose to map any complex structure onto a generic form, called serialization, over which we can apply any sequence-based density estimator. We then show how to transfer the learned density back onto the space of original structures. To expose the learning procedure to the structural particularities of the original structures, we take care that the serializations reflect accurately the structures' properties. Enumerating all serializations is infeasible. We propose an effective way to sample representative serializations from the complete set of serializations which preserves the statistics of the complete set. Our method is competitive or better than state of the art learning algorithms that have been specifically designed for given structures. In addition, since the serialization involves sampling from a combinatorial process it provides considerable protection from overfitting, which we clearly demonstrate on a number of experiments.Comment: Submission to NeurIPS 201

Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets

This paper develops a flexible multi-dimensional assessment method for the comparison of different statistical-econometric techniques based on learning mechanisms with a view to analysing and forecasting regional labour markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. A first major objective is to explore the use of a standard choice tool, namely Multicriteria Analysis (MCA), in order to cope with the intrinsic methodological uncertainty on the choice of a suitable statistical-econometric learning technique for regional labour market analysis. MCA is applied here to support choices on the performance of various models -based on classes of Neural Network (NN) techniques-that serve to generate employment forecasts in West Germany at a regional/district level. A second objective of the paper is to analyse the methodological potential of a blend of approaches (NN-MCA) in order to extend the analysis framework to other economic research domains, where formal models are not available, but where a variety of statistical data is present. The paper offers a basis for a more balanced judgement of the performance of rival statistical tests

New insights into the outflows from R Aquarii

R Aquarii is a symbiotic binary surrounded by a large and complex nebula with a prominent curved jet. It is one of the closest known symbiotic systems, and therefore offers a unique opportunity to study the central regions of these systems and the formation and evolution of astrophysical jets. We studied the evolution of the central jet and outer nebula of R Aqr taking advantage of a long term monitoring campaign of optical imaging, as well as of high-resolution integral field spectroscopy. Narrow-band images acquired over a period of more than 21 years are compared in order to study the expansion and evolution of all components of the R Aqr nebula. The magnification method is used to derive the kinematic ages of the features that appear to expand radially. Integral field spectroscopy of the OIII 5007A emission is used to study the velocity structure of the central regions of the jet. New extended features, further out than the previously known hourglass nebula, are detected. The kinematic distance to R Aqr is calculated to be 178 pc using the expansion of the large hourglass nebula. This nebula of R Aqr is found to be roughly 650 years old, while the inner regions have ages ranging from 125 to 290 years. The outer nebula is found to be well described by a ballistic expansion, while for most components of the jet strong deviations from such behaviour are found. We find that the Northern jet is mostly red-shifted while its Southern part is blue-shifted, apparently at odds with findings from previous studies but almost certainly a consequence of the complex nature of the jet and variations in ionisation and illumination between observations.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Assessing Simulations of Imperial Dynamics and Conflict in the Ancient World

The development of models to capture large-scale dynamics in human history is one of the core contributions of cliodynamics. Most often, these models are assessed by their predictive capability on some macro-scale and aggregated measure and compared to manually curated historical data. In this report, we consider the model from Turchin et al. (2013), where the evaluation is done on the prediction of "imperial density": the relative frequency with which a geographical area belonged to large-scale polities over a certain time window. We implement the model and release both code and data for reproducibility. We then assess its behaviour against three historical data sets: the relative size of simulated polities vs historical ones; the spatial correlation of simulated imperial density with historical population density; the spatial correlation of simulated conflict vs historical conflict. At the global level, we show good agreement with population density ($R^2 < 0.75$), and some agreement with historical conflict in Europe ($R^2 < 0.42$). The model instead fails to reproduce the historical shape of individual polities. Finally, we tweak the model to behave greedily by having polities preferentially attacking weaker neighbours. Results significantly degrade, suggesting that random attacks are a key trait of the original model. We conclude by proposing a way forward by matching the probabilistic imperial strength from simulations to inferred networked communities from real settlement data

Automated classification of three-dimensional reconstructions of coral reefs using convolutional neural networks

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hopkinson, B. M., King, A. C., Owen, D. P., Johnson-Roberson, M., Long, M. H., & Bhandarkar, S. M. Automated classification of three-dimensional reconstructions of coral reefs using convolutional neural networks. PLoS One, 15(3), (2020): e0230671, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230671.Coral reefs are biologically diverse and structurally complex ecosystems, which have been severally affected by human actions. Consequently, there is a need for rapid ecological assessment of coral reefs, but current approaches require time consuming manual analysis, either during a dive survey or on images collected during a survey. Reef structural complexity is essential for ecological function but is challenging to measure and often relegated to simple metrics such as rugosity. Recent advances in computer vision and machine learning offer the potential to alleviate some of these limitations. We developed an approach to automatically classify 3D reconstructions of reef sections and assessed the accuracy of this approach. 3D reconstructions of reef sections were generated using commercial Structure-from-Motion software with images extracted from video surveys. To generate a 3D classified map, locations on the 3D reconstruction were mapped back into the original images to extract multiple views of the location. Several approaches were tested to merge information from multiple views of a point into a single classification, all of which used convolutional neural networks to classify or extract features from the images, but differ in the strategy employed for merging information. Approaches to merging information entailed voting, probability averaging, and a learned neural-network layer. All approaches performed similarly achieving overall classification accuracies of ~96% and >90% accuracy on most classes. With this high classification accuracy, these approaches are suitable for many ecological applications.This study was funded by grants from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (BMH, BR2014-049; https://sloan.org), and the National Science Foundation (MHL, OCE-1657727; https://www.nsf.gov). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript