Streaming kernel regression with provably adaptive mean, variance, and regularization

International audienceWe consider the problem of streaming kernel regression, when the observations arrive sequentially and the goal is to recover the underlying mean function, assumed to belong to an RKHS. The variance of the noise is not assumed to be known. In this context, we tackle the problem of tuning the regularization parameter adaptively at each time step, while maintaining tight confidence bounds estimates on the value of the mean function at each point. To this end, we first generalize existing results for finite-dimensional linear regression with fixed regularization and known variance to the kernel setup with a regularization parameter allowed to be a measurable function of past observations. Then, using appropriate self-normalized inequalities we build upper and lower bound estimates for the variance, leading to Bersntein-like concentration bounds. The later is used in order to define the adaptive regularization. The bounds resulting from our technique are valid uniformly over all observation points and all time steps, and are compared against the literature with numerical experiments. Finally, the potential of these tools is illustrated by an application to kernelized bandits, where we revisit the Kernel UCB and Kernel Thompson Sampling procedures, and show the benefits of the novel adaptive kernel tuning strategy

Adaptive Threshold Sampling and Estimation

Sampling is a fundamental problem in both computer science and statistics. A number of issues arise when designing a method based on sampling. These include statistical considerations such as constructing a good sampling design and ensuring there are good, tractable estimators for the quantities of interest as well as computational considerations such as designing fast algorithms for streaming data and ensuring the sample fits within memory constraints. Unfortunately, existing sampling methods are only able to address all of these issues in limited scenarios. We develop a framework that can be used to address these issues in a broad range of scenarios. In particular, it addresses the problem of drawing and using samples under some memory budget constraint. This problem can be challenging since the memory budget forces samples to be drawn non-independently and consequently, makes computation of resulting estimators difficult. At the core of the framework is the notion of a data adaptive thresholding scheme where the threshold effectively allows one to treat the non-independent sample as if it were drawn independently. We provide sufficient conditions for a thresholding scheme to allow this and provide ways to build and compose such schemes. Furthermore, we provide fast algorithms to efficiently sample under these thresholding schemes

No-Regret Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Hyperparameters

Bayesian optimization (BO) based on Gaussian process models is a powerful paradigm to optimize black-box functions that are expensive to evaluate. While several BO algorithms provably converge to the global optimum of the unknown function, they assume that the hyperparameters of the kernel are known in advance. This is not the case in practice and misspecification often causes these algorithms to converge to poor local optima. In this paper, we present the first BO algorithm that is provably no-regret and converges to the optimum without knowledge of the hyperparameters. During optimization we slowly adapt the hyperparameters of stationary kernels and thereby expand the associated function class over time, so that the BO algorithm considers more complex function candidates. Based on the theoretical insights, we propose several practical algorithms that achieve the empirical sample efficiency of BO with online hyperparameter estimation, but retain theoretical convergence guarantees. We evaluate our method on several benchmark problems

Gaussian Process Optimization with Adaptive Sketching: Scalable and No Regret

Gaussian processes (GP) are a well studied Bayesian approach for the optimization of black-box functions. Despite their effectiveness in simple problems, GP-based algorithms hardly scale to high-dimensional functions, as their per-iteration time and space cost is at least quadratic in the number of dimensions $d$ and iterations $t$. Given a set of $A$ alternatives to choose from, the overall runtime $O(t^3A)$ is prohibitive. In this paper we introduce BKB (budgeted kernelized bandit), a new approximate GP algorithm for optimization under bandit feedback that achieves near-optimal regret (and hence near-optimal convergence rate) with near-constant per-iteration complexity and remarkably no assumption on the input space or covariance of the GP. We combine a kernelized linear bandit algorithm (GP-UCB) with randomized matrix sketching based on leverage score sampling, and we prove that randomly sampling inducing points based on their posterior variance gives an accurate low-rank approximation of the GP, preserving variance estimates and confidence intervals. As a consequence, BKB does not suffer from variance starvation, an important problem faced by many previous sparse GP approximations. Moreover, we show that our procedure selects at most $\tilde{O}(d_{eff})$ points, where $d_{eff}$ is the effective dimension of the explored space, which is typically much smaller than both $d$ and $t$. This greatly reduces the dimensionality of the problem, thus leading to a $O(TAd_{eff}^2)$ runtime and $O(A d_{eff})$ space complexity.Comment: Accepted at COLT 2019. Corrected typos and improved comparison with existing method

Random Feature-based Online Multi-kernel Learning in Environments with Unknown Dynamics

Kernel-based methods exhibit well-documented performance in various nonlinear learning tasks. Most of them rely on a preselected kernel, whose prudent choice presumes task-specific prior information. Especially when the latter is not available, multi-kernel learning has gained popularity thanks to its flexibility in choosing kernels from a prescribed kernel dictionary. Leveraging the random feature approximation and its recent orthogonality-promoting variant, the present contribution develops a scalable multi-kernel learning scheme (termed Raker) to obtain the sought nonlinear learning function `on the fly,' first for static environments. To further boost performance in dynamic environments, an adaptive multi-kernel learning scheme (termed AdaRaker) is developed. AdaRaker accounts not only for data-driven learning of kernel combination, but also for the unknown dynamics. Performance is analyzed in terms of both static and dynamic regrets. AdaRaker is uniquely capable of tracking nonlinear learning functions in environments with unknown dynamics, and with with analytic performance guarantees. Tests with synthetic and real datasets are carried out to showcase the effectiveness of the novel algorithms.Comment: 36 page

Stochastic Optimization For Multi-Agent Statistical Learning And Control

The goal of this thesis is to develop a mathematical framework for optimal, accurate, and affordable complexity statistical learning among networks of autonomous agents. We begin by noting the connection between statistical inference and stochastic programming, and consider extensions of this setup to settings in which a network of agents each observes a local data stream and would like to make decisions that are good with respect to information aggregated across the entire network. There is an open-ended degree of freedom in this problem formulation, however: the selection of the estimator function class which defines the feasible set of the stochastic program. Our central contribution is the design of stochastic optimization tools in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces that yield optimal, accurate, and affordable complexity statistical learning for a multi-agent network. To obtain this result, we first explore the relative merits and drawbacks of different function class selections. In Part I, we consider multi-agent expected risk minimization this problem setting for the case that each agent seems to learn a common globally optimal generalized linear models (GLMs) by developing a stochastic variant of Arrow-Hurwicz primal-dual method. We establish convergence to the primal-dual optimal pair when either consensus or ``proximity constraints encode the fact that we want all agents\u27 to agree, or nearby agents to make decisions that are close to one another. Empirically, we observe that these convergence results are substantiated but that convergence may not translate into statistical accuracy. More broadly, optimality within a given estimator function class is not the same as one that makes minimal inference errors. The optimality-accuracy tradeoff of GLMs motivates subsequent efforts to learn more sophisticated estimators based upon learned feature encodings of the data that is fed into the statistical model. The specific tool we turn to in Part II is dictionary learning, where we optimize both over regression weights and an encoding of the data, which yields a non-convex problem. We investigate the use of stochastic methods for online task-driven dictionary learning, and obtain promising performance for the task of a ground robot learning to anticipate control uncertainty based on its past experience. Heartened by this implementation, we then consider extensions of this framework for a multi-agent network to each learn globally optimal task-driven dictionaries based on stochastic primal-dual methods. However, it is here the non-convexity of the optimization problem causes problems: stringent conditions on stochastic errors and the duality gap limit the applicability of the convergence guarantees, and impractically small learning rates are required for convergence in practice. Thus, we seek to learn nonlinear statistical models while preserving convexity, which is possible through kernel methods ( Part III). However, the increased descriptive power of nonparametric estimation comes at the cost of infinite complexity. Thus, we develop a stochastic approximation algorithm in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) that ameliorates this complexity issue while preserving optimality: we combine the functional generalization of stochastic gradient method (FSGD) with greedily constructed low-dimensional subspace projections based on matching pursuit. We establish that the proposed method yields a controllable trade-off between optimality and memory, and yields highly accurate parsimonious statistical models in practice. % Then, we develop a multi-agent extension of this method by proposing a new node-separable penalty function and applying FSGD together with low-dimensional subspace projections. This extension allows a network of autonomous agents to learn a memory-efficient approximation to the globally optimal regression function based only on their local data stream and message passing with neighbors. In practice, we observe agents are able to stably learn highly accurate and memory-efficient nonlinear statistical models from streaming data. From here, we shift focus to a more challenging class of problems, motivated by the fact that true learning is not just revising predictions based upon data but augmenting behavior over time based on temporal incentives. This goal may be described by Markov Decision Processes (MDPs): at each point, an agent is in some state of the world, takes an action and then receives a reward while randomly transitioning to a new state. The goal of the agent is to select the action sequence to maximize its long-term sum of rewards, but determining how to select this action sequence when both the state and action spaces are infinite has eluded researchers for decades. As a precursor to this feat, we consider the problem of policy evaluation in infinite MDPs, in which we seek to determine the long-term sum of rewards when starting in a given state when actions are chosen according to a fixed distribution called a policy. We reformulate this problem as a RKHS-valued compositional stochastic program and we develop a functional extension of stochastic quasi-gradient algorithm operating in tandem with the greedy subspace projections mentioned above. We prove convergence with probability 1 to the Bellman fixed point restricted to this function class, and we observe a state of the art trade off in memory versus Bellman error for the proposed method on the Mountain Car driving task, which bodes well for incorporating policy evaluation into more sophisticated, provably stable reinforcement learning techniques, and in time, developing optimal collaborative multi-agent learning-based control systems