7,608 research outputs found
Request-and-Reverify: Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing for Concept Drift Detection with Expensive Labels
One important assumption underlying common classification models is the
stationarity of the data. However, in real-world streaming applications, the
data concept indicated by the joint distribution of feature and label is not
stationary but drifting over time. Concept drift detection aims to detect such
drifts and adapt the model so as to mitigate any deterioration in the model's
predictive performance. Unfortunately, most existing concept drift detection
methods rely on a strong and over-optimistic condition that the true labels are
available immediately for all already classified instances. In this paper, a
novel Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing framework with Request-and-Reverify
strategy is developed to detect concept drifts by requesting labels only when
necessary. Two methods, namely Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing with
Classification Uncertainty (HHT-CU) and Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing with
Attribute-wise "Goodness-of-fit" (HHT-AG), are proposed respectively under the
novel framework. In experiments with benchmark datasets, our methods
demonstrate overwhelming advantages over state-of-the-art unsupervised drift
detectors. More importantly, our methods even outperform DDM (the widely used
supervised drift detector) when we use significantly fewer labels.Comment: Published as a conference paper at IJCAI 201
An Algorithm for Pattern Discovery in Time Series
We present a new algorithm for discovering patterns in time series and other
sequential data. We exhibit a reliable procedure for building the minimal set
of hidden, Markovian states that is statistically capable of producing the
behavior exhibited in the data -- the underlying process's causal states.
Unlike conventional methods for fitting hidden Markov models (HMMs) to data,
our algorithm makes no assumptions about the process's causal architecture (the
number of hidden states and their transition structure), but rather infers it
from the data. It starts with assumptions of minimal structure and introduces
complexity only when the data demand it. Moreover, the causal states it infers
have important predictive optimality properties that conventional HMM states
lack. We introduce the algorithm, review the theory behind it, prove its
asymptotic reliability, use large deviation theory to estimate its rate of
convergence, and compare it to other algorithms which also construct HMMs from
data. We also illustrate its behavior on an example process, and report
selected numerical results from an implementation.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures; 5 tables;
http://www.santafe.edu/projects/CompMech Added discussion of algorithm
parameters; improved treatment of convergence and time complexity; added
comparison to older method
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