Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one's peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the pattern by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game makes a decision among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information

Pioneers of Influence Propagation in Social Networks

With the growing importance of corporate viral marketing campaigns on online social networks, the interest in studies of influence propagation through networks is higher than ever. In a viral marketing campaign, a firm initially targets a small set of pioneers and hopes that they would influence a sizeable fraction of the population by diffusion of influence through the network. In general, any marketing campaign might fail to go viral in the first try. As such, it would be useful to have some guide to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign and judge whether it is worthy of further resources, and in case the campaign has potential, how to hit upon a good pioneer who can make the campaign go viral. In this paper, we present a diffusion model developed by enriching the generalized random graph (a.k.a. configuration model) to provide insight into these questions. We offer the intuition behind the results on this model, rigorously proved in Blaszczyszyn & Gaurav(2013), and illustrate them here by taking examples of random networks having prototypical degree distributions - Poisson degree distribution, which is commonly used as a kind of benchmark, and Power Law degree distribution, which is normally used to approximate the real-world networks. On these networks, the members are assumed to have varying attitudes towards propagating the information. We analyze three cases, in particular - (1) Bernoulli transmissions, when a member influences each of its friend with probability p; (2) Node percolation, when a member influences all its friends with probability p and none with probability 1-p; (3) Coupon-collector transmissions, when a member randomly selects one of his friends K times with replacement. We assume that the configuration model is the closest approximation of a large online social network, when the information available about the network is very limited. The key insight offered by this study from a firm's perspective is regarding how to evaluate the effectiveness of a marketing campaign and do cost-benefit analysis by collecting relevant statistical data from the pioneers it selects. The campaign evaluation criterion is informed by the observation that if the parameters of the underlying network and the campaign effectiveness are such that the campaign can indeed reach a significant fraction of the population, then the set of good pioneers also forms a significant fraction of the population. Therefore, in such a case, the firms can even adopt the naive strategy of repeatedly picking and targeting some number of pioneers at random from the population. With this strategy, the probability of them picking a good pioneer will increase geometrically fast with the number of tries

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio

Spreading processes in Multilayer Networks

Several systems can be modeled as sets of interconnected networks or networks with multiple types of connections, here generally called multilayer networks. Spreading processes such as information propagation among users of an online social networks, or the diffusion of pathogens among individuals through their contact network, are fundamental phenomena occurring in these networks. However, while information diffusion in single networks has received considerable attention from various disciplines for over a decade, spreading processes in multilayer networks is still a young research area presenting many challenging research issues. In this paper we review the main models, results and applications of multilayer spreading processes and discuss some promising research directions.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, 4 table

Shaping Social Activity by Incentivizing Users

Events in an online social network can be categorized roughly into endogenous events, where users just respond to the actions of their neighbors within the network, or exogenous events, where users take actions due to drives external to the network. How much external drive should be provided to each user, such that the network activity can be steered towards a target state? In this paper, we model social events using multivariate Hawkes processes, which can capture both endogenous and exogenous event intensities, and derive a time dependent linear relation between the intensity of exogenous events and the overall network activity. Exploiting this connection, we develop a convex optimization framework for determining the required level of external drive in order for the network to reach a desired activity level. We experimented with event data gathered from Twitter, and show that our method can steer the activity of the network more accurately than alternatives

Effective Mechanism for Social Recommendation of News

Recommendation systems represent an important tool for news distribution on the Internet. In this work we modify a recently proposed social recommendation model in order to deal with no explicit ratings of users on news. The model consists of a network of users which continually adapts in order to achieve an efficient news traffic. To optimize network's topology we propose different stochastic algorithms that are scalable with respect to the network's size. Agent-based simulations reveal the features and the performance of these algorithms. To overcome the resultant drawbacks of each method we introduce two improved algorithms and show that they can optimize network's topology almost as fast and effectively as other not-scalable methods that make use of much more information