Choosing a transport contract over multiple periods

We offer a shipper and a carrier the choice among three contracts in which to frame their relationship. Both can also take recourse in the transport spot market. Demand and price on the spot market are dependent exogenous stochastic processes. We model the outcome of this endogenous choice of contract. The results, given in closed form, are different from those presented in the literature. Using numeric instances, we show how a choice is made and which contract would be preferred. Comparison on the variance of the economic returns are offered. The conclusions are applicable when the carrier is not capacity constrained.

The impact of coordination and information on transport procurement

Transport cost is second in importance after production cost in industry. It is the purpose of the present paper to study the impact of information sharing and contractual instruments between a supply chain and its transport suppliers. After reviewing the literature, we propose a model to measure the benefits in terms of transport cost and standard deviation of transport cost. We evaluate three scenarios over one period reiterated for a shipper carrier two-echelon model with a mix of long- term and short-term procurement strategies: perfect information, asymmetric information and private information at one level of the supply chain. We evaluate the transfer in rent between carrier and shipper according to the information known and give some insights on optimal contract parameters.Supply chain management, coordination, contracts, information sharing, game theory, mechanisms

Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Second, we analyse the effects of different data frequencies on the coefficient estimates and forecasts obtained using each selected econometric specification. Third, we compare different models at different data frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine the relevant aspects of the financial and structural specifications proposed in the literature (“mixed” models). Our empirical findings suggest that, irrespective of the shape of the loss function, the class of financial models is to be preferred to time series models. Both financial and time series models are better than mixed and structural models. Results of the Diebold and Mariano test are not conclusive, for the loss differential seems to be statistically insignificant in the large majority of cases. Although the random walk model is not statistically outperformed by any of the alternative models, the empirical findings seem to suggest that theoretically well-grounded financial models are valid instruments for producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price.Oil Price, WTI Spot and Futures Prices, Forecasting, Econometric Models

Capacity reservation and wholesale price contracts under forecast sharing: a behavioral assessment

We study a supply chain setup in which a buyer has private end customer demand information that she can share with the supplier. The demand information is relevant to the supplier's capacity decision. We address the question of whether the supplier benefits from installing nonlinear capacity reservation contracts rather than wholesale price contracts. We contribute to the literature by providing the first internally valid comparison of both contracts with human decision makers. We setup an experimental study with four treatments (both contracts as well as different supplier margins). From a supplier's perspective, we observe that the capacity reservation contract significantly outperforms the wholesale price contract; however, the supplier's benefit from using capacity reservation is much higher under low margins than under high margins. Regarding supply chain performance, the positive effect for the supplier exceeds the negative effect for the buyer in the low margin setting, while the two effects neutralize each other in the high margin setting. We identify behavioral factors explaining deviations from the theoretical predictions. In particular, we observe naïve anchoring and trust as strong behavioral drivers common to both contract types. Even though the complexity of the nonlinear contract results in weaker performance than that predicted by theory, our study reveals that suppliers can still benefit from installing them; thus, providing important managerial implications for the choice of the contract type

Impact of Back up Quantity Contract on Two-level Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

In this new era of Supply chain coordination contracts are offered and accepted according to the varying need and specification of the industry and business in discussion. The contract variations arise according to the circumstances and adaptability by both manufacturer and retailer. An important challenge faced by the contracts being offered is the adaptability and robustness when demand observed is different from the forecast. Because of stochastic and uncertain demand, retailer faces lost sales and eventually loses revenue within the same horizon. This paper discusses a back up quantity contract for a single season in which retailer orders for one-shot inventory ordering. Manufacturer retains some part of the ordered inventory as backup and provides the units at first stage. If stock at retailer lags behind the demand, he gets the backup quantity otherwise he pays some agreed upon nominal price to manufacturer in case that inventory is not at all required. We assumed the case of single manufacturer and single retailer. If units are not required, the risk of holding inventory lies with manufacturer and salvaged at zero. The strategy is suitable for businesses having short seasonal products and high demand variability. We used Monte Carlo simulation for analyzing lost sales and supply chain profit scenario and used worst case distribution and normal distribution to validate the Pareto improving contractual relationship

Capacity constraints and irreversible investments: defending against collective dominance in UPM Kymmene/Norske Skog/Haindl.

Scrutiny of potential mergers by the European Commission often focuses on unilateral effects or single firm dominance. But some cases have involved concerns over coordinated effects: the concern that the merger could increase the likelihood of consumer harm through tacit collusion by the reduced number of firms in the industry (this is known as collective dominance). The economic and legal issues are far less certain in these cases and a particular challenge is how to bring empirical evidence to bear on the decision. In this chapter we examine a case in newsprint and magazine paper - UPM Kymmene/Norske Skog/Haindl . Here, coordinated effects were at the centre of the Commission’s concerns. We discuss how collusion theory and evidence were used to help clear the merger without remedies in the final Decision.

Overview and classification of coordination contracts within forward and reverse supply chains

Among coordination mechanisms, contracts are valuable tools used in both theory and practice to coordinate various supply chains. The focus of this paper is to present an overview of contracts and a classification of coordination contracts and contracting literature in the form of classification schemes. The two criteria used for contract classification, as resulted from contracting literature, are transfer payment contractual incentives and inventory risk sharing. The overview classification of the existing literature has as criteria the level of detail used in designing the coordination models with applicability on the forward and reverse supply chains.Coordination contracts; forward supply chain; reverse supply chain

Precommitment and random exchange rates in symmetric duopoly: a new theory of multinational production

Recent volatility in real exchange rates has renewed interest in the nature of multinational firms. One increasingly common phenomenon involves the foreign sourcing of production, in which certain domestic firms choose to produce part or all of their product abroad and then export the commodity for domestic sale. Multinational production has been rationalized on the basis of inherent asymmetries between firms, such as the possession of certain firm-specific assets or differences between firms in their perceptions of foreign production costs, access to foreign subsidy programs, and the possibility of tariff preemption. Such behavior has also been rationalized in terms of corporate risk-aversion and a desire to hedge real exchange rate risk through the diversification of production locations. This paper presents an entirely novel explanation for the existence of multinational firms and the foreign sourcing of production. Rather than relying on exogenous asymmetries between firms or on assumptions about corporate aversion to risk, this explanation recognizes that exchange rate uncertainty may offer a purely strategic motive for symmetric and risk-neutral domestic oligopolists to precommit to foreign production in order to attain a position of industry leadership. This explanation is presented in the specific context of a two-period model of strategic foreign production by domestic duopolists. Strategically symmetric and risk-neutral firms are confronted by a unique source of uncertainty in the form of a randomly fluctuating exchange rate. Exchange rate uncertainty is resolved, for the purposes of current production decisions, between the two periods. Precommitted foreign production in the first period yields a leadership advantage relative to firms that do not precommit, but this decision must be evaluated against the value of the alternative of remaining flexible to adopt a production plan after the resolution of exchange rate uncertainty. A unique symmetric sequential equilibrium in mixed strategies is determined in this market, allowing a Stackelberg leader to endogenously emerge through a credible precommitment to the foreign sourcing of production.International business enterprises ; Foreign exchange rates

Information sharing in supply chains: a review of risks and opportunities using the Systematic Literature Network Analysis (SLNA)

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and discuss the most important research areas on information sharing in supply chains and related risks, taking into account their evolution over time. This paper sheds light on what is happening today and what the trajectories for the future are, with particular respect to the implications for supply chain management. Design/Methodology/Approach – The dynamic literature review method called Systematic Literature Network Analysis (SLNA) was adopted. It combines the Systematic Literature Review approach and bibliographic network analyses, and it relies on objective measures and algorithms to perform quantitative literature-based detection of emerging topics. Findings-The focus of the literature seems to be on threats internal to the extended supply chain rather than external attacks, such as viruses, traditionally related to information technology (IT). The main arising risk appears to be the intentional or non-intentional leakage of information. Also, papers analyse the implications for information sharing coming from " soft " factors such as trust and collaboration among supply chain partners. Opportunities are also highlighted and include how information sharing can be leveraged to confront disruptions and increase resilience. Research limitations/implications – The adopted methodology allows providing an original perspective on the investigated topic, i.e. how information sharing in supply chains and related risks are evolving over time due to the turbulent advances in technology. Practical implications-Emergent and highly critical risks related to information sharing are highlighted to support the design of supply chain risks strategies. Also, critical areas to the development of " beyond-the-dyad " initiatives to manage information sharing risks emerge. Opportunities coming from information sharing that are less known and exploited by companies are provided. Originality/value – This study focuses on the supply chain perspective rather than the traditional IT-based view of information sharing. According to this perspective, this study provides a dynamic representation of the literature on the investigated topic. This is an important contribution to the topic of information sharing in supply chains, which is continuously evolving and shaping new supply chain models