2,471 research outputs found

    On the Generation of Realistic and Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Algorithmic Recourse

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    This recent widespread deployment of machine learning algorithms presents many new challenges. Machine learning algorithms are usually opaque and can be particularly difficult to interpret. When humans are involved, algorithmic and automated decisions can negatively impact people’s lives. Therefore, end users would like to be insured against potential harm. One popular way to achieve this is to provide end users access to algorithmic recourse, which gives end users negatively affected by algorithmic decisions the opportunity to reverse unfavorable decisions, e.g., from a loan denial to a loan acceptance. In this thesis, we design recourse algorithms to meet various end user needs. First, we propose methods for the generation of realistic recourses. We use generative models to suggest recourses likely to occur under the data distribution. To this end, we shift the recourse action from the input space to the generative model’s latent space, allowing to generate counterfactuals that lie in regions with data support. Second, we observe that small changes applied to the recourses prescribed to end users likely invalidate the suggested recourse after being nosily implemented in practice. Motivated by this observation, we design methods for the generation of robust recourses and for assessing the robustness of recourse algorithms to data deletion requests. Third, the lack of a commonly used code-base for counterfactual explanation and algorithmic recourse algorithms and the vast array of evaluation measures in literature make it difficult to compare the per formance of different algorithms. To solve this problem, we provide an open source benchmarking library that streamlines the evaluation process and can be used for benchmarking, rapidly developing new methods, and setting up new experiments. In summary, our work contributes to a more reliable interaction of end users and machine learned models by covering fundamental aspects of the recourse process and suggests new solutions towards generating realistic and robust counterfactual explanations for algorithmic recourse

    Multi-epoch machine learning for galaxy formation

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    In this thesis I utilise a range of machine learning techniques in conjunction with hydrodynamical cosmological simulations. In Chapter 2 I present a novel machine learning method for predicting the baryonic properties of dark matter only subhalos taken from N-body simulations. The model is built using a tree-based algorithm and incorporates subhalo properties over a wide range of redshifts as its input features. I train the model using a hydrodynamical simulation which enables it to predict black hole mass, gas mass, magnitudes, star formation rate, stellar mass, and metallicity. This new model surpasses the performance of previous models. Furthermore, I explore the predictive power of each input property by looking at feature importance scores from the tree-based model. By applying the method to the LEGACY N-body simulation I generate a large volume mock catalog of the quasar population at z=3. By comparing this mock catalog with observations, I demonstrate that the IllustrisTNG subgrid model for black holes is not accurately capturing the growth of the most massive objects. In Chapter 3 I apply my method to investigate the evolution of galaxy properties in different simulations, and in various environments within a single simulation. By comparing the Illustris, EAGLE, and TNG simulations I show that subgrid model physics plays a more significant role than the choice of hydrodynamics method. Using the CAMELS simulation suite I consider the impact of cosmological and astrophysical parameters on the buildup of stellar mass within the TNG and SIMBA models. In the final chapter I apply a combination of neural networks and symbolic regression methods to construct a semi-analytic model which reproduces the galaxy population from a cosmological simulation. The neural network based approach is capable of producing a more accurate population than a previous method of binning based on halo mass. The equations resulting from symbolic regression are found to be a good approximation of the neural network

    Advances in machine learning algorithms for financial risk management

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    In this thesis, three novel machine learning techniques are introduced to address distinct yet interrelated challenges involved in financial risk management tasks. These approaches collectively offer a comprehensive strategy, beginning with the precise classification of credit risks, advancing through the nuanced forecasting of financial asset volatility, and ending with the strategic optimisation of financial asset portfolios. Firstly, a Hybrid Dual-Resampling and Cost-Sensitive technique has been proposed to combat the prevalent issue of class imbalance in financial datasets, particularly in credit risk assessment. The key process involves the creation of heuristically balanced datasets to effectively address the problem. It uses a resampling technique based on Gaussian mixture modelling to generate a synthetic minority class from the minority class data and concurrently uses k-means clustering on the majority class. Feature selection is then performed using the Extra Tree Ensemble technique. Subsequently, a cost-sensitive logistic regression model is then applied to predict the probability of default using the heuristically balanced datasets. The results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed technique, with superior performance observed in comparison to other imbalanced preprocessing approaches. This advancement in credit risk classification lays a solid foundation for understanding individual financial behaviours, a crucial first step in the broader context of financial risk management. Building on this foundation, the thesis then explores the forecasting of financial asset volatility, a critical aspect of understanding market dynamics. A novel model that combines a Triple Discriminator Generative Adversarial Network with a continuous wavelet transform is proposed. The proposed model has the ability to decompose volatility time series into signal-like and noise-like frequency components, to allow the separate detection and monitoring of non-stationary volatility data. The network comprises of a wavelet transform component consisting of continuous wavelet transforms and inverse wavelet transform components, an auto-encoder component made up of encoder and decoder networks, and a Generative Adversarial Network consisting of triple Discriminator and Generator networks. The proposed Generative Adversarial Network employs an ensemble of unsupervised loss derived from the Generative Adversarial Network component during training, supervised loss and reconstruction loss as part of its framework. Data from nine financial assets are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. This approach not only enhances our understanding of market fluctuations but also bridges the gap between individual credit risk assessment and macro-level market analysis. Finally the thesis ends with a novel proposal of a novel technique or Portfolio optimisation. This involves the use of a model-free reinforcement learning strategy for portfolio optimisation using historical Low, High, and Close prices of assets as input with weights of assets as output. A deep Capsules Network is employed to simulate the investment strategy, which involves the reallocation of the different assets to maximise the expected return on investment based on deep reinforcement learning. To provide more learning stability in an online training process, a Markov Differential Sharpe Ratio reward function has been proposed as the reinforcement learning objective function. Additionally, a Multi-Memory Weight Reservoir has also been introduced to facilitate the learning process and optimisation of computed asset weights, helping to sequentially re-balance the portfolio throughout a specified trading period. The use of the insights gained from volatility forecasting into this strategy shows the interconnected nature of the financial markets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrated that our proposed technique is capable of achieving superior results based on risk-adjusted reward performance measures. In a nut-shell, this thesis not only addresses individual challenges in financial risk management but it also incorporates them into a comprehensive framework; from enhancing the accuracy of credit risk classification, through the improvement and understanding of market volatility, to optimisation of investment strategies. These methodologies collectively show the potential of the use of machine learning to improve financial risk management

    Face Emotion Recognition Based on Machine Learning: A Review

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    Computers can now detect, understand, and evaluate emotions thanks to recent developments in machine learning and information fusion. Researchers across various sectors are increasingly intrigued by emotion identification, utilizing facial expressions, words, body language, and posture as means of discerning an individual's emotions. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the first three methods may be limited, as individuals can consciously or unconsciously suppress their true feelings. This article explores various feature extraction techniques, encompassing the development of machine learning classifiers like k-nearest neighbour, naive Bayesian, support vector machine, and random forest, in accordance with the established standard for emotion recognition. The paper has three primary objectives: firstly, to offer a comprehensive overview of effective computing by outlining essential theoretical concepts; secondly, to describe in detail the state-of-the-art in emotion recognition at the moment; and thirdly, to highlight important findings and conclusions from the literature, with an emphasis on important obstacles and possible future paths, especially in the creation of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for the identification of emotions

    Exploiting Emotions via Composite Pretrained Embedding and Ensemble Language Model

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    Decisions in the modern era are based on more than just the available data; they also incorporate feedback from online sources. Processing reviews known as Sentiment analysis (SA) or Emotion analysis. Understanding the user's perspective and routines is crucial now-a-days for multiple reasons. It is used by both businesses and governments to make strategic decisions. Various architectural and vector embedding strategies have been developed for SA processing. Accurate representation of text is crucial for automatic SA. Due to the large number of languages spoken and written,  polysemy and syntactic or semantic issues were common. To get around these problems, we developed effective composite embedding (ECE), a method that combines the advantages of vector embedding techniques that are either context-independent (like glove & fasttext) or context-aware (like  XLNet) to effectively represent the features needed for processing.  To improve the performace towards emotion or  sentiment we proposed stacked ensemble model of deep lanugae models.ECE with Ensembled model is evaluated on balanced  dataset to prove that it is a reliable embedding technique and a generalised model for SA.In order to evaluate ECE, cutting-edge ML and Deep net language models are deployed and comapared. The model is evaluated using benchmark datset such as  MR, Kindle along with realtime tweet dataset of user complaints . LIME is used to verify the model's predictions and to provide statistical results for sentence.The model with ECE embedding provides state-of-art results with real time dataset as well

    Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion. Collected Works, Volume 5

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    This fifth volume on Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics, and is available in open-access. The collected contributions of this volume have either been published or presented after disseminating the fourth volume in 2015 in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals, or they are new. The contributions of each part of this volume are chronologically ordered. First Part of this book presents some theoretical advances on DSmT, dealing mainly with modified Proportional Conflict Redistribution Rules (PCR) of combination with degree of intersection, coarsening techniques, interval calculus for PCR thanks to set inversion via interval analysis (SIVIA), rough set classifiers, canonical decomposition of dichotomous belief functions, fast PCR fusion, fast inter-criteria analysis with PCR, and improved PCR5 and PCR6 rules preserving the (quasi-)neutrality of (quasi-)vacuous belief assignment in the fusion of sources of evidence with their Matlab codes. Because more applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the fourth book of DSmT in 2015, the second part of this volume is about selected applications of DSmT mainly in building change detection, object recognition, quality of data association in tracking, perception in robotics, risk assessment for torrent protection and multi-criteria decision-making, multi-modal image fusion, coarsening techniques, recommender system, levee characterization and assessment, human heading perception, trust assessment, robotics, biometrics, failure detection, GPS systems, inter-criteria analysis, group decision, human activity recognition, storm prediction, data association for autonomous vehicles, identification of maritime vessels, fusion of support vector machines (SVM), Silx-Furtif RUST code library for information fusion including PCR rules, and network for ship classification. Finally, the third part presents interesting contributions related to belief functions in general published or presented along the years since 2015. These contributions are related with decision-making under uncertainty, belief approximations, probability transformations, new distances between belief functions, non-classical multi-criteria decision-making problems with belief functions, generalization of Bayes theorem, image processing, data association, entropy and cross-entropy measures, fuzzy evidence numbers, negator of belief mass, human activity recognition, information fusion for breast cancer therapy, imbalanced data classification, and hybrid techniques mixing deep learning with belief functions as well

    Tradition and Innovation in Construction Project Management

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    This book is a reprint of the Special Issue 'Tradition and Innovation in Construction Project Management' that was published in the journal Buildings

    Probabilistic Solar Proxy Forecasting with Neural Network Ensembles

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    Space weather indices are used commonly to drive forecasts of thermosphere density, which directly affects objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) through atmospheric drag. One of the most commonly used space weather proxies, F10.7cmF_{10.7 cm}, correlates well with solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) energy deposition into the thermosphere. Currently, the USAF contracts Space Environment Technologies (SET), which uses a linear algorithm to forecast F10.7cmF_{10.7 cm}. In this work, we introduce methods using neural network ensembles with multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) and long-short term memory (LSTMs) to improve on the SET predictions. We make predictions only from historical F10.7cmF_{10.7 cm} values, but also investigate data manipulation to improve forecasting. We investigate data manipulation methods (backwards averaging and lookback) as well as multi step and dynamic forecasting. This work shows an improvement over the baseline when using ensemble methods. The best models found in this work are ensemble approaches using multi step or a combination of multi step and dynamic predictions. Nearly all approaches offer an improvement, with the best models improving between 45 and 55\% on relative MSE. Other relative error metrics were shown to improve greatly when ensembles methods were used. We were also able to leverage the ensemble approach to provide a distribution of predicted values; allowing an investigation into forecast uncertainty. Our work found models that produced less biased predictions at elevated and high solar activity levels. Uncertainty was also investigated through the use of a calibration error score metric (CES), our best ensemble reached similar CES as other work.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures, 5 Table

    Information Fusion via Symbolic Regression: A Tutorial in the Context of Human Health

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    This tutorial paper provides a general overview of symbolic regression (SR) with specific focus on standards of interpretability. We posit that interpretable modeling, although its definition is still disputed in the literature, is a practical way to support the evaluation of successful information fusion. In order to convey the benefits of SR as a modeling technique, we demonstrate an application within the field of health and nutrition using publicly available National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), fusing together anthropometric markers into a simple mathematical expression to estimate body fat percentage. We discuss the advantages and challenges associated with SR modeling and provide qualitative and quantitative analyses of the learned models
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