Stock market trading rule discovery using technical analysis and a template matching technique for pattern recognition

For my dissertation, I propose to study the ability of technical analysis to predict price movements in the stock market by conducting a research that aims to investigate the potential profit of bull flag technical trading rules using a template matching technique, in contrast to the market average returns for the emerging stock markets of Brazil and China - Brazil Stock Market Index (BOVESPA) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE), respectively, for a time horizon of 31 years (1990 - 2021)

The Evolution of Neural Network-Based Chart Patterns: A Preliminary Study

A neural network-based chart pattern represents adaptive parametric features, including non-linear transformations, and a template that can be applied in the feature space. The search of neural network-based chart patterns has been unexplored despite its potential expressiveness. In this paper, we formulate a general chart pattern search problem to enable cross-representational quantitative comparison of various search schemes. We suggest a HyperNEAT framework applying state-of-the-art deep neural network techniques to find attractive neural network-based chart patterns; These techniques enable a fast evaluation and search of robust patterns, as well as bringing a performance gain. The proposed framework successfully found attractive patterns on the Korean stock market. We compared newly found patterns with those found by different search schemes, showing the proposed approach has potential.Comment: 8 pages, In proceedings of Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2017), Berlin, German

Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. We evaluate the contribution of Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman, often in association with his late co-author Amos Tversky, to the development of our understanding of financial decision-making and the evolution of behavioural finance as a school of thought within Finance. Whilst a general evaluation of the work of Kahneman would be a massive task, we constrain ourselves to a more narrow discussion of his vision of financial-decision making compared to a possible alternative advanced by Gerd Gigerenzer along with numerous co-authors. Both Kahneman and Gigerenzer agree on the centrality of heuristics in decision making. However, for Kahneman heuristics often appear as a fall back when the standard von-Neumann-Morgenstern axioms of rational decision-making do not describe investors' choices. In contrast, for Gigerenzer heuristics are simply a more effective way of evaluating choices in the rich and changing decision making environment investors must face. Gigerenzer challenges Kahneman to move beyond substantiating the presence of heuristics towards a more tangible, testable, description of their use and disposal within the ever changing decision-making environment financial agents inhabit. Here we see the emphasis placed by Gigerenzer on how context and cognition interact to form new schemata for fast and frugal reasoning as offering a productive vein of new research. We illustrate how the interaction between cognition and context already characterises much empirical research and it appears the fast and frugal reasoning perspective of Gigerenzer can provide a framework to enhance our understanding of how financial decisions are made

A dynamic trading rule based on filtered flag pattern recognition for stock market price forecasting

[EN] In this paper we propose and validate a trading rule based on flag pattern recognition, incorporating im- portant innovations with respect to the previous research. Firstly, we propose a dynamic window scheme that allows the stop loss and take profit to be updated on a quarterly basis. In addition, since the flag pat- tern is a trend-following pattern, we have added the EMA indicator to filter trades. This technical analysis indicator is calculated both for 15-min and 1-day timeframes, which enables short and medium terms to be considered simultaneously. We also filter the flags according to the price range on which they are de- veloped and have limited the maximum loss of each trade to 100 points. The proposed methodology was applied to 91,309 intraday observations of the DJIA index, considerably improving the results obtained in the previous proposals and those obtained by the buy & hold strategy, both for profitability and risk, and also after taking into account the transaction costs. These results seem to challenge market efficiency in line with other similar studies, in the specific analysis carried out on the DJIA index and is also limited to the setup considered.The fourth author of this work was partially supported by MINECO, Project MTM2016-75963-P.Arévalo, R.; García, J.; Guijarro, F.; Peris Manguillot, A. (2017). A dynamic trading rule based on filtered flag pattern recognition for stock market price forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications. 81:177-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2017.03.0281771928

What makes trading strategies based on chart pattern recognition profitable?

[EN] Automating chart pattern recognition is a relevant issue addressed by researchers and practitioners when designing a system that considers technical analysis for trading purposes. This article proposes the design of a trading system that takes into account any generic pattern that has been proven to be profitable in the past, without restricting the search to the specific technical patterns reported in the literature, hence the term generic pattern recognition. A fast version of dynamic time warping, the University College Riverside subsequence search suite (called the UCR suite), is employed for the pattern recognition task in an effort to produce trading signals in realistic timescales. This article evaluates the significance of the relation between the system's profitability and (a) the pattern length, (b) the take-profit and stop-loss levels and (c) the performance consensus of past patterns. The trading system is assessed under the mean¿variance perspective by using 560 NYSE stocks. The results obtained by the different parameter configurations are reported, controlling for both data-snooping and transaction costs. On average, the proposed system dominates the market index in the mean¿variance sense. Although transaction costs reduce the profitability of the proposed trading system, 92.5% of the experiments are profitable if the analysis is reduced to the parameter values aligned with the technical analysisTsinaslanidis, P.; Guijarro, F. (2021). What makes trading strategies based on chart pattern recognition profitable?. Expert Systems. 38(5):1-17. https://doi.org/10.1111/exsy.12596S11738

An Overview of the Use of Neural Networks for Data Mining Tasks

In the recent years the area of data mining has experienced a considerable demand for technologies that extract knowledge from large and complex data sources. There is a substantial commercial interest as well as research investigations in the area that aim to develop new and improved approaches for extracting information, relationships, and patterns from datasets. Artificial Neural Networks (NN) are popular biologically inspired intelligent methodologies, whose classification, prediction and pattern recognition capabilities have been utilised successfully in many areas, including science, engineering, medicine, business, banking, telecommunication, and many other fields. This paper highlights from a data mining perspective the implementation of NN, using supervised and unsupervised learning, for pattern recognition, classification, prediction and cluster analysis, and focuses the discussion on their usage in bioinformatics and financial data analysis tasks

Using a weightless neural network to forecast stock prices: A case study of Nigerian stock exchange

This research work, proposes forecasting stock prices in the stock market industry in Nigeria using a Weightless Neural Network (WNN). A neural network application used to demonstrate the application of the WNN in the forecasting of stock prices in the market is designed and implemented in Visual Foxpro 6.0. The proposed network is tested with stock data obtained from the Nigeria Stock Exchange. This system is compared with Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) model. The WNN error value is found to be 0.39 while that of SES is 9.78, based on these values, forecasting with the WNN is observed to be more accurate and closer to the real data than those using the SES model

DeepLOB: Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books

We develop a large-scale deep learning model to predict price movements from limit order book (LOB) data of cash equities. The architecture utilises convolutional filters to capture the spatial structure of the limit order books as well as LSTM modules to capture longer time dependencies. The proposed network outperforms all existing state-of-the-art algorithms on the benchmark LOB dataset [1]. In a more realistic setting, we test our model by using one year market quotes from the London Stock Exchange and the model delivers a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy for a variety of instruments. Importantly, our model translates well to instruments which were not part of the training set, indicating the model's ability to extract universal features. In order to better understand these features and to go beyond a "black box" model, we perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the rationale behind the model predictions and reveal the components of LOBs that are most relevant. The ability to extract robust features which translate well to other instruments is an important property of our model which has many other applications.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure