The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market, and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks convey information about how the representative investor values cash flows of different maturities. We model how the representative investor perceives risks of these cash flows by specifying a parsimonious stochastic discount factor for the economy. Shocks to dividend growth, the real interest rate, and expected inflation are priced, but shocks to the price of risk are not. Given reasonable assumptions for dividends and inflation, we show that the model can simultaneously account for the behavior of aggregate stock returns, an upward-sloping yield curve, the failure of the expectations hypothesis, and the poor performance of the capital asset pricing model

Macroeconomic risk factors in Australian commercial real estate, listed property trust and property sector stock returns: A comparative analysis using GARCH-M

This paper employs a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to consider the effect of macroeconomic factors on Australian property returns over the period 1985 to 2002. Three direct (office, retail and industrial property) and two indirect (listed property trust and property stock) returns are included in the analysis, along with market returns, short, medium and long-term interest rates, expected and unexpected inflation, construction activity and industrial employment and production. In general, the macroeconomic factors examined are found to be significant risk factors in Australian commercial property returns. However, the results also indicate that forecast accuracy in these models is higher for direct office, listed property trust and property stock returns and that the persistence of volatility shocks varies across the different markets, with volatility half lives of between five and seven months for direct retail and industrial property, two and three months for direct office property and less than two months with both forms of indirect property investment.Property returns; listed property trust, property stocks, market risk; interest rate risk; industrial

Determinants of Financial vs. Non Financial Stock Returns: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange

We estimate a four-factor model for a sample of financial and nonfinancial firms traded on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The factors relate to market return, interest, inflation and exchange rates. By investigating the effects of these factors simultaneously for different exchange rate regimes, we show that market return, interest, inflation, and exchange rates play a separate role in financial and nonfinancial firms´ stock returns. We also show that all factors are priced during the period of free float. These results are important for determining financial institutions' cost of capital and for identifying the risks that should be hedged

Macroeconomic risk factors in Australian commercial real estate, listed property trust and property sector stock returns: A comparative analysis using GARCH-M

This paper employs a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to consider the effect of macroeconomic factors on Australian property returns over the period 1985 to 2002 Three direct (office, retail and industrial property) and two indirect (listed property trust and property stock) returns are included in the analysis, along with market returns, short, medium and long-term interest rates, expected and unexpected inflation, construction activity and industrial employment and production. In general, the macroeconomic factors examined are found to be significant risk factors in Australian commercial property returns. However, the results also indicate that forecast accuracy in these models is higher for direct office, listed property trust and property stock returns and that the persistence of volatility shocks varies across the different markets, with volatility half lives of between five and seven months for direct retail and industrial property, two and three months for direct office property and less than two months with both forms of indirect property investment

Monetary misconceptions

The paper identifies a number of misconceptions about the monetary policy process and the monetary transmission mechanism in the UK. Among the misconceptions about the process are the alleged lack of regional and sectoral representativeness of the Monetary Policy Committee and the view that operational central bank independence means that monetary and fiscal policy are not properly coordinated. Among the transmission mechanism misconceptions, the "New Paradigm" figures prominently. Among the New Paradigm changes in the British economy that have been given prominence are the following: increasing openness; lower global inflation; lower profit margins, reflecting stronger competitive pressures; buoyant stock markets; a lower natural rate of unemployment; and a higher trend rate of growth of productivity. I argue that the New Paradigm has been over-hyped and misunderstood as regards its implications for monetary policy. Other misconceptions include the ''death of inflation'', the ''end of boom and bust'', a couple of Neanderthal Keynesian fallacies and the monetary fine tuning fallacy

An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States

This paper tests for the relationship between excess returns and economic growth rates in the U.S., using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) approach. The system includes monthly data for inflation, consumption, narrow money supply and personal disposable income and each equation has up to 24-lagged Autoregressive terms. After removing the four major shocks associated with Black Monday, the Asian Crisis, “9·11” and its anniversary, we cannot find any ARCH behaviour in either the excess returns or the money series. The models are reduced to their parsimonious forms and the inflation and real consumption equations are corrected for ARCH. To make the result more robust we reduce our system to four equations by conditioning on income and testing the remaining equations for stability. The SUR model suggests strong long-run feedback between the financial sector and the real economy firstly through inflation, then consumption while the influence of real money supply appears transitory. Consumption is more sensitive to the economic variables in short and long run as compared with stock market windfalls

Shocks and shock absorbers: The International Propagation Of Equity Market Shocks and the design of appropriate policy responses

Equity prices are major sources of shocks to the world economy and channels for propagation of these shocks. We seek to calibrate macroeconomic effects of falls in share prices and assess appropriate policy responses, using the National Institute Global Econometric Model NiGEM. Based on estimated relationships, falls in US equity prices have significant impacts on global activity; potential for liquidity traps suggest a need for complementary monetary and fiscal policy easing. However, fiscal easing boosts long-term real interest rates and hence moderates one of the automatic shock absorbers provided by the market mechanism

An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in the Journal of Policy Modeling. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2009 Elsevier B.V.US asset prices are modelled in the short- and long-run with the use of a seemingly unrelated system using monthly data over the time period, 1983–2004. Once the shocks of 1987, 1997 and post-“9·11” have been accounted for, then volatility only affects the consumption and inflation equations. In the long run excess returns and inflation are driven by consumption growth. Money growth impacts excess returns and inflation via consumption. Income is super exogenous implying that policy can be made conditional on this variable and that in the long run investors are primarily concerned with income growth

Dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and returns on Turkish rela estate investment trusts

Ankara : The Department of Management, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2012.Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2012.Includes bibliographical references.The purpose of this thesis is to examine the dynamic relationship between the returns on Turkish real estate investment trusts (REITs) and macroeconomic variables for the period between 2000 and 2011. Market returns, industrial production, inflation, unexpected inflation, overnight interest rate, term premium, and default risk premium are used as macroeconomic variables in the analysis. The models are estimated for the whole period, January 2000 – December 2011 as well as for the subperiod excluding the 2000-2001 crisis. Unrestricted vector autoregressive model, variance decomposition and generalized impulse response techniques are employed to capture the feedback mechanism between macroeconomic variables and REIT returns. The results of the variance decomposition analysis show that macroeconomic variables explain almost half of the total variation in REIT returns for the whole sample period. This proportion increases to 63% when the crisis period is eliminated. Although there is not a dominant factor, industrial production, inflation, market returns and term structure are found to be important variables to explain the variability of REIT returns. Generalized impulse response analysis shows that unexpected shocks in the stock market and default risk premium have positive impact on Turkish REIT returns whereas unexpected shocks on overnight interest rate and term premium have negative effect. However, shocks to inflation and industrial production are not found to have significant impact on REIT returns. Some differences among REITs are observed depending on whether the major shareholder of the REIT is a bank or a construction company.Kırdök, Fethiye EzgiM.S

Analysis of the Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Conduction in OECD Countries: Empirical Evidence from Panel-VAR Models

In this study, panel vector autoregression (PVAR) models are employed to examine the relationships between industrial production growth rate, consumer price inflation, short-term interest rates, stock returns and exchange rate volatility. More specifically, I explored the consequences of the dynamics detected by the models on monetary policy implementation for 10 OECD countries. This study indicates that factors that may cause a rise in short-term interest rates with respect to the USA can lead to volatility in exchange rates and thus macroeconomic instability. It is also implied that sustaining macroeconomic growth and decreasing inflation can result in increased export performance, which in turn provides the amount of US dollars to curb volatility in US dollar quotations. Accordingly, this study reveals that high importance should be given to both monetary and non-monetary factors in the open-economy framework to detect the possible impacts on trade and capital flows by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Due to their exchange rate risk of economic agents, I also suggest that the economic policy makers of these countries had better create a theoretical framework including financial frictions, economic agents’ preferences and different shocks to smooth the variations in exchange rates and minimise the negative outcomes of Brexit