Improving Demand Forecasting: The Challenge of Forecasting Studies Comparability and a Novel Approach to Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting

Bedarfsprognosen sind in der Wirtschaft unerlässlich. Anhand des erwarteten Kundenbe-darfs bestimmen Firmen beispielsweise welche Produkte sie entwickeln, wie viele Fabri-ken sie bauen, wie viel Personal eingestellt wird oder wie viel Rohmaterial geordert wer-den muss. Fehleinschätzungen bei Bedarfsprognosen können schwerwiegende Auswir-kungen haben, zu Fehlentscheidungen führen, und im schlimmsten Fall den Bankrott einer Firma herbeiführen. Doch in vielen Fällen ist es komplex, den tatsächlichen Bedarf in der Zukunft zu antizipie-ren. Die Einflussfaktoren können vielfältig sein, beispielsweise makroökonomische Ent-wicklung, das Verhalten von Wettbewerbern oder technologische Entwicklungen. Selbst wenn alle Einflussfaktoren bekannt sind, sind die Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkun-gen häufig nur schwer zu quantifizieren. Diese Dissertation trägt dazu bei, die Genauigkeit von Bedarfsprognosen zu verbessern. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird im Rahmen einer überfassenden Übersicht über das gesamte Spektrum der Anwendungsfelder von Bedarfsprognosen ein neuartiger Ansatz eingeführt, wie Studien zu Bedarfsprognosen systematisch verglichen werden können und am Bei-spiel von 116 aktuellen Studien angewandt. Die Vergleichbarkeit von Studien zu verbes-sern ist ein wesentlicher Beitrag zur aktuellen Forschung. Denn anders als bspw. in der Medizinforschung, gibt es für Bedarfsprognosen keine wesentlichen vergleichenden quan-titativen Meta-Studien. Der Grund dafür ist, dass empirische Studien für Bedarfsprognosen keine vereinheitlichte Beschreibung nutzen, um ihre Daten, Verfahren und Ergebnisse zu beschreiben. Wenn Studien hingegen durch systematische Beschreibung direkt miteinan-der verglichen werden können, ermöglicht das anderen Forschern besser zu analysieren, wie sich Variationen in Ansätzen auf die Prognosegüte auswirken – ohne die aufwändige Notwendigkeit, empirische Experimente erneut durchzuführen, die bereits in Studien beschrieben wurden. Diese Arbeit führt erstmals eine solche Systematik zur Beschreibung ein. Der weitere Teil dieser Arbeit behandelt Prognoseverfahren für intermittierende Zeitreihen, also Zeitreihen mit wesentlichem Anteil von Bedarfen gleich Null. Diese Art der Zeitreihen erfüllen die Anforderungen an Stetigkeit der meisten Prognoseverfahren nicht, weshalb gängige Verfahren häufig ungenügende Prognosegüte erreichen. Gleichwohl ist die Rele-vanz intermittierender Zeitreihen hoch – insbesondere Ersatzteile weisen dieses Bedarfs-muster typischerweise auf. Zunächst zeigt diese Arbeit in drei Studien auf, dass auch die getesteten Stand-der-Technik Machine Learning Ansätze bei einigen bekannten Datensät-zen keine generelle Verbesserung herbeiführen. Als wesentlichen Beitrag zur Forschung zeigt diese Arbeit im Weiteren ein neuartiges Verfahren auf: Der Similarity-based Time Series Forecasting (STSF) Ansatz nutzt ein Aggregation-Disaggregationsverfahren basie-rend auf einer selbst erzeugten Hierarchie statistischer Eigenschaften der Zeitreihen. In Zusammenhang mit dem STSF Ansatz können alle verfügbaren Prognosealgorithmen eingesetzt werden – durch die Aggregation wird die Stetigkeitsbedingung erfüllt. In Expe-rimenten an insgesamt sieben öffentlich bekannten Datensätzen und einem proprietären Datensatz zeigt die Arbeit auf, dass die Prognosegüte (gemessen anhand des Root Mean Square Error RMSE) statistisch signifikant um 1-5% im Schnitt gegenüber dem gleichen Verfahren ohne Einsatz von STSF verbessert werden kann. Somit führt das Verfahren eine wesentliche Verbesserung der Prognosegüte herbei. Zusammengefasst trägt diese Dissertation zum aktuellen Stand der Forschung durch die zuvor genannten Verfahren wesentlich bei. Das vorgeschlagene Verfahren zur Standardi-sierung empirischer Studien beschleunigt den Fortschritt der Forschung, da sie verglei-chende Studien ermöglicht. Und mit dem STSF Verfahren steht ein Ansatz bereit, der zuverlässig die Prognosegüte verbessert, und dabei flexibel mit verschiedenen Arten von Prognosealgorithmen einsetzbar ist. Nach dem Erkenntnisstand der umfassenden Literatur-recherche sind keine vergleichbaren Ansätze bislang beschrieben worden

Novel Heuristic Recurrent Neural Network Framework to Handle Automatic Telugu Text Categorization from Handwritten Text Image

In the near future, the digitization and processing of the current paper documents describe efficient role in the creation of a paperless environment. Deep learning techniques for handwritten recognition have been extensively studied by various researchers. Deep neural networks can be trained quickly thanks to a lot of data and other algorithmic advancements. Various methods for extracting text from handwritten manuscripts have been developed in literature. To extract features from written Telugu Text image having some other neural network approaches like convolution neural network (CNN), recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM). Different deep learning related approaches are widely used to identification of handwritten Telugu Text; various techniques are used in literature for the identification of Telugu Text from documents. For automatic identification of Telugu written script efficiently to eliminate noise and other semantic features present in Telugu Text, in this paper, proposes Novel Heuristic Advanced Neural Network based Telugu Text Categorization Model (NHANNTCM) based on sequence-to-sequence feature extraction procedure. Proposed approach extracts the features using RNN and then represents Telugu Text in sequence-to-sequence format for the identification advanced neural network performs both encoding and decoding to identify and explore visual features from sequence of Telugu Text in input data. The classification accuracy rates for Telugu words, Telugu numerals, Telugu characters, Telugu sentences, and the corresponding Telugu sentences were 99.66%, 93.63%, 91.36%, 99.05%, and 97.73% consequently. Experimental evaluation describe extracted with revealed which are textured i.e. TENG shown considerable operations in applications such as private information protection, security defense, and personal handwriting signature identification

Front Matter - Soft Computing for Data Mining Applications

Efficient tools and algorithms for knowledge discovery in large data sets have been devised during the recent years. These methods exploit the capability of computers to search huge amounts of data in a fast and effective manner. However, the data to be analyzed is imprecise and afflicted with uncertainty. In the case of heterogeneous data sources such as text, audio and video, the data might moreover be ambiguous and partly conflicting. Besides, patterns and relationships of interest are usually vague and approximate. Thus, in order to make the information mining process more robust or say, human-like methods for searching and learning it requires tolerance towards imprecision, uncertainty and exceptions. Thus, they have approximate reasoning capabilities and are capable of handling partial truth. Properties of the aforementioned kind are typical soft computing. Soft computing techniques like Genetic

Detecting Political Framing Shifts and the Adversarial Phrases within\\ Rival Factions and Ranking Temporal Snapshot Contents in Social Media

abstract: Social Computing is an area of computer science concerned with dynamics of communities and cultures, created through computer-mediated social interaction. Various social media platforms, such as social network services and microblogging, enable users to come together and create social movements expressing their opinions on diverse sets of issues, events, complaints, grievances, and goals. Methods for monitoring and summarizing these types of sociopolitical trends, its leaders and followers, messages, and dynamics are needed. In this dissertation, a framework comprising of community and content-based computational methods is presented to provide insights for multilingual and noisy political social media content. First, a model is developed to predict the emergence of viral hashtag breakouts, using network features. Next, another model is developed to detect and compare individual and organizational accounts, by using a set of domain and language-independent features. The third model exposes contentious issues, driving reactionary dynamics between opposing camps. The fourth model develops community detection and visualization methods to reveal underlying dynamics and key messages that drive dynamics. The final model presents a use case methodology for detecting and monitoring foreign influence, wherein a state actor and news media under its control attempt to shift public opinion by framing information to support multiple adversarial narratives that facilitate their goals. In each case, a discussion of novel aspects and contributions of the models is presented, as well as quantitative and qualitative evaluations. An analysis of multiple conflict situations will be conducted, covering areas in the UK, Bangladesh, Libya and the Ukraine where adversarial framing lead to polarization, declines in social cohesion, social unrest, and even civil wars (e.g., Libya and the Ukraine).Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Computer Science 201

The 8th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting

The aim of ITISE 2022 is to create a friendly environment that could lead to the establishment or strengthening of scientific collaborations and exchanges among attendees. Therefore, ITISE 2022 is soliciting high-quality original research papers (including significant works-in-progress) on any aspect time series analysis and forecasting, in order to motivating the generation and use of new knowledge, computational techniques and methods on forecasting in a wide range of fields

Machine Learning

Machine Learning can be defined in various ways related to a scientific domain concerned with the design and development of theoretical and implementation tools that allow building systems with some Human Like intelligent behavior. Machine learning addresses more specifically the ability to improve automatically through experience

Anomaly Detection, Rule Adaptation and Rule Induction Methodologies in the Context of Automated Sports Video Annotation.

Automated video annotation is a topic of considerable interest in computer vision due to its applications in video search, object based video encoding and enhanced broadcast content. The domain of sport broadcasting is, in particular, the subject of current research attention due to its fixed, rule governed, content. This research work aims to develop, analyze and demonstrate novel methodologies that can be useful in the context of adaptive and automated video annotation systems. In this thesis, we present methodologies for addressing the problems of anomaly detection, rule adaptation and rule induction for court based sports such as tennis and badminton. We first introduce an HMM induction strategy for a court-model based method that uses the court structure in the form of a lattice for two related modalities of singles and doubles tennis to tackle the problems of anomaly detection and rectification. We also introduce another anomaly detection methodology that is based on the disparity between the low-level vision based classifiers and the high-level contextual classifier. Another approach to address the problem of rule adaptation is also proposed that employs Convex hulling of the anomalous states. We also investigate a number of novel hierarchical HMM generating methods for stochastic induction of game rules. These methodologies include, Cartesian product Label-based Hierarchical Bottom-up Clustering (CLHBC) that employs prior information within the label structures. A new constrained variant of the classical Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) is also introduced that is relevant to sports games. We also propose two hybrid methodologies in this context and a comparative analysis is made against the flat Markov model. We also show that these methods are also generalizable to other rule based environments

Big Data mining and machine learning techniques applied to real world scenarios

Data mining techniques allow the extraction of valuable information from heterogeneous and possibly very large data sources, which can be either structured or unstructured. Unstructured data, such as text files, social media, mobile data, are much more than structured data, and grow at a higher rate. Their high volume and the inherent ambiguity of natural language make unstructured data very hard to process and analyze. Appropriate text representations are therefore required in order to capture word semantics as well as to preserve statistical information, e.g. word counts. In Big Data scenarios, scalability is also a primary requirement. Data mining and machine learning approaches should take advantage of large-scale data, exploiting abundant information and avoiding the curse of dimensionality. The goal of this thesis is to enhance text understanding in the analysis of big data sets, introducing novel techniques that can be employed for the solution of real world problems. The presented Markov methods temporarily achieved the state-of-the-art on well-known Amazon reviews corpora for cross-domain sentiment analysis, before being outperformed by deep approaches in the analysis of large data sets. A noise detection method for the identification of relevant tweets leads to 88.9% accuracy in the Dow Jones Industrial Average daily prediction, which is the best result in literature based on social networks. Dimensionality reduction approaches are used in combination with LinkedIn users' skills to perform job recommendation. A framework based on deep learning and Markov Decision Process is designed with the purpose of modeling job transitions and recommending pathways towards a given career goal. Finally, parallel primitives for vendor-agnostic implementation of Big Data mining algorithms are introduced to foster multi-platform deployment, code reuse and optimization