Stock Value Prediction System

The use of artificial neural network is gaining popularity in the research field. Neural network consist of interconnected neurons which deciphers value by using input data by feeding network values. The main aim of our project is to use backpropagation process to predict the future value.Stock market prediction models are the most challenging fields in computer science. The aim of this project is implementation of neural networks with back propagation algorithm for stock value prediction .A neural network is a powerful data-modeling tool that is able to capture and represent complex input/output relationships. We apply Data mining technology to the stock in order to research the trend of the market. Our proposed system provides methods to develop machine learning stock market predictor based on Neural Networks using Back propagationalgorithm, with intent of improving the accuracy. In this paper we have used data mining process along with artificial neural network networking to predict the future value of the stock. This paper overcomes the all traditional statistical methods of the stock market value prediction. DOI: 10.17762/ijritcc2321-8169.16049

PREDIKSI HARGA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN BACKPROPAGATION

In the stock market, stock price prediction is an important issue for the perpetrators of capital transactions to help making the right decision. Most traders have their own application software to predict the stock price so that it can be decided would buy the shares or sell them. By using a neural networks, prediction of stock prices can be done by using the backpropagation algorithm. Artificial neural networks can be used either to predict the level or price of the stock index, stock movement (trend), and the return earned on stocks. This study discusses the use of techniques Backpropagation Neural Network to predict the stock price closing (Close) in AKR Tbk (AKRA Corporindo) engaged in the petroleum, chemical,logistics, manufacturing and coal are simulated in Matlab. Of some testing done, the prediction results obtained are very close to the price actually with very small MSE value

PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN SECARA SUPERVISED LEARNING DENGAN ALGORITMA BACKPROPAGATION

Stock price prediction is useful for investors to see how the prospects of a company's stock investment in the future. Stock price prediction can be used to anticipate the deviation of stock prices. It can also helps investors in decision making. Artificial Neural Networks do not require mathematical models but data from problems to be solved. Information is conveyed through the data, and the Artificial Neural Network filters the information through training. Therefore, Artificial Neural Network is appropriate to solve the problem of stock price prediction.            Learning method that will be used to predict stock price is Supervised Learning with Backpropagation algorithm. With this algorithm, networks can be trained using stock price data from the previous time, classify it and adjust network link weight as new input and forecast future stock prices. By using ANN, time series prediction is more accurate. After analyzing the problem of stock price movement system, the writer can know the pattern of what variables will be taken for further insert into the stock price forecasting system.            This application can be used for stock price forecasting technique, so it will be useful for beginner investor as well as advanced investor as reference to invest in capital market. Implementing supervised learning backpropagation method will get accurate forecasting results more than 98%.Keyword - artificial neural network, stock, backpropagation

Empirical validation of ELM trained neural networks for financial modelling

The purpose of this work is to compare predictive performance of neural networks trained using the relatively novel technique of training single hidden layer feedforward neural networks (SFNN), called Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), with commonly used backpropagation-trained recurrent neural networks (RNN) as applied to the task of financial market prediction. Evaluated on a set of large capitalisation stocks on the Australian market, specifically the components of the ASX20, ELM-trained SFNNs showed superior performance over RNNs for individual stock price prediction. While this conclusion of efficacy holds generally, long short-term memory (LSTM) RNNs were found to outperform for a small subset of stocks. Subsequent analysis identified several areas of performance deviations which we highlight as potentially fruitful areas for further research and performance improvement

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

An Improved Stock Price Prediction using Hybrid Market Indicators

In this paper the effect of hybrid market indicators is examined for an improved stock price prediction. The hybrid market indicators consist of technical, fundamental and expert opinion variables as input to artificial neural networks model. The empirical results obtained with published stock data of Dell and Nokia obtained from New York Stock Exchange shows that the proposed model can be effective to improve accuracy of stock price prediction

How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?

In this paper, the author applies neural networks as nonparametric and nonlinear methods to Central European (Czech, Polish, Hungarian, and German) stock market returns modeling. In the first part, he presents the intuition of neural networks and also discusses statistical methods for comparing predictive accuracy, as well as economic significance measures. In the empirical tests, he uses data on the daily and weekly returns of the PX-50, BUX, WIG, and DAX stock exchange indices for the 2000–2006 period. He finds neural networks to have a significantly lower prediction error than the classical models for the daily DAX series and the weekly PX-50 and BUX series. The author also achieves economic significance of the predictions for both the daily and weekly PX-50, BUX, and DAX, with a 60% prediction accuracy.emerging stock markets, predictability of stock returns, neural networks