33,468 research outputs found
Reliability-based design optimization using kriging surrogates and subset simulation
The aim of the present paper is to develop a strategy for solving
reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems that remains applicable
when the performance models are expensive to evaluate. Starting with the
premise that simulation-based approaches are not affordable for such problems,
and that the most-probable-failure-point-based approaches do not permit to
quantify the error on the estimation of the failure probability, an approach
based on both metamodels and advanced simulation techniques is explored. The
kriging metamodeling technique is chosen in order to surrogate the performance
functions because it allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error. The
surrogate error onto the limit-state surfaces is propagated to the failure
probabilities estimates in order to provide an empirical error measure. This
error is then sequentially reduced by means of a population-based adaptive
refinement technique until the kriging surrogates are accurate enough for
reliability analysis. This original refinement strategy makes it possible to
add several observations in the design of experiments at the same time.
Reliability and reliability sensitivity analyses are performed by means of the
subset simulation technique for the sake of numerical efficiency. The adaptive
surrogate-based strategy for reliability estimation is finally involved into a
classical gradient-based optimization algorithm in order to solve the RBDO
problem. The kriging surrogates are built in a so-called augmented reliability
space thus making them reusable from one nested RBDO iteration to the other.
The strategy is compared to other approaches available in the literature on
three academic examples in the field of structural mechanics.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables. Preprint submitted to Springer-Verla
Bayesian Dropout
Dropout has recently emerged as a powerful and simple method for training
neural networks preventing co-adaptation by stochastically omitting neurons.
Dropout is currently not grounded in explicit modelling assumptions which so
far has precluded its adoption in Bayesian modelling. Using Bayesian entropic
reasoning we show that dropout can be interpreted as optimal inference under
constraints. We demonstrate this on an analytically tractable regression model
providing a Bayesian interpretation of its mechanism for regularizing and
preventing co-adaptation as well as its connection to other Bayesian
techniques. We also discuss two general approximate techniques for applying
Bayesian dropout for general models, one based on an analytical approximation
and the other on stochastic variational techniques. These techniques are then
applied to a Baysian logistic regression problem and are shown to improve
performance as the model become more misspecified. Our framework roots dropout
as a theoretically justified and practical tool for statistical modelling
allowing Bayesians to tap into the benefits of dropout training.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures. Manuscript prepared 2014 and awaiting submissio
On control of discrete-time state-dependent jump linear systems with probabilistic constraints: A receding horizon approach
In this article, we consider a receding horizon control of discrete-time
state-dependent jump linear systems, particular kind of stochastic switching
systems, subject to possibly unbounded random disturbances and probabilistic
state constraints. Due to a nature of the dynamical system and the constraints,
we consider a one-step receding horizon. Using inverse cumulative distribution
function, we convert the probabilistic state constraints to deterministic
constraints, and obtain a tractable deterministic receding horizon control
problem. We consider the receding control law to have a linear state-feedback
and an admissible offset term. We ensure mean square boundedness of the state
variable via solving linear matrix inequalities off-line, and solve the
receding horizon control problem on-line with control offset terms. We
illustrate the overall approach applied on a macroeconomic system
Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference
Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits
it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However,
fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving
algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally
challenging, which makes it difficult to efficiently cycle through the steps.
To this end, we develop automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI).
Using our method, the scientist only provides a probabilistic model and a
dataset, nothing else. ADVI automatically derives an efficient variational
inference algorithm, freeing the scientist to refine and explore many models.
ADVI supports a broad class of models-no conjugacy assumptions are required. We
study ADVI across ten different models and apply it to a dataset with millions
of observations. ADVI is integrated into Stan, a probabilistic programming
system; it is available for immediate use
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