A Probabilistic Approach to Mean Field Games with Major and Minor Players

We propose a new approach to mean field games with major and minor players. Our formulation involves a two player game where the optimization of the representative minor player is standard while the major player faces an optimization over conditional McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations. The definition of this limiting game is justified by proving that its solution provides approximate Nash equilibriums for large finite player games. This proof depends upon the generalization of standard results on the propagation of chaos to conditional dynamics. Because it is on independent interest, we prove this generalization in full detail. Using a conditional form of the Pontryagin stochastic maximum principle (proven in the appendix), we reduce the solution of the mean field game to a forward-backward system of stochastic differential equations of the conditional McKean-Vlasov type, which we solve in the Linear Quadratic setting. We use this class of models to show that Nash equilibriums in our formulation can be different from those of the formulations contemplated so far in the literature

Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Efficient Sample Approximation of Chance Constraints

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost function in terms of expected values and higher moments of the states, and chance constraints that ensure probabilistic constraint satisfaction. The generalized polynomial chaos framework is used to propagate the time-invariant stochastic uncertainties through the nonlinear system dynamics, and to efficiently sample from the probability densities of the states to approximate the satisfaction probability of the chance constraints. To increase computational efficiency by avoiding excessive sampling, a statistical analysis is proposed to systematically determine a-priori the least conservative constraint tightening required at a given sample size to guarantee a desired feasibility probability of the sample-approximated chance constraint optimization problem. In addition, a method is presented for sample-based approximation of the analytic gradients of the chance constraints, which increases the optimization efficiency significantly. The proposed stochastic nonlinear model predictive control approach is applicable to a broad class of nonlinear systems with the sufficient condition that each term is analytic with respect to the states, and separable with respect to the inputs, states and parameters. The closed-loop performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using the Williams-Otto reactor with seven states, and ten uncertain parameters and initial conditions. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the approach for real-time stochastic model predictive control and its capability to systematically account for probabilistic uncertainties in contrast to a nonlinear model predictive control approaches.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Process Contro

Simultaneous Optimal Uncertainty Apportionment and Robust Design Optimization of Systems Governed by Ordinary Differential Equations

The inclusion of uncertainty in design is of paramount practical importance because all real-life systems are affected by it. Designs that ignore uncertainty often lead to poor robustness, suboptimal performance, and higher build costs. Treatment of small geometric uncertainty in the context of manufacturing tolerances is a well studied topic. Traditional sequential design methodologies have recently been replaced by concurrent optimal design methodologies where optimal system parameters are simultaneously determined along with optimally allocated tolerances; this allows to reduce manufacturing costs while increasing performance. However, the state of the art approaches remain limited in that they can only treat geometric related uncertainties restricted to be small in magnitude. This work proposes a novel framework to perform robust design optimization concurrently with optimal uncertainty apportionment for dynamical systems governed by ordinary differential equations. The proposed framework considerably expands the capabilities of contemporary methods by enabling the treatment of both geometric and non-geometric uncertainties in a unified manner. Additionally, uncertainties are allowed to be large in magnitude and the governing constitutive relations may be highly nonlinear. In the proposed framework, uncertainties are modeled using Generalized Polynomial Chaos and are solved quantitatively using a least-square collocation method. The computational efficiency of this approach allows statistical moments of the uncertain system to be explicitly included in the optimization-based design process. The framework formulates design problems as constrained multi-objective optimization problems, thus enabling the characterization of a Pareto optimal trade-off curve that is off-set from the traditional deterministic optimal trade-off curve. The Pareto off-set is shown to be a result of the additional statistical moment information formulated in the objective and constraint relations that account for the system uncertainties. Therefore, the Pareto trade-off curve from the new framework characterizes the entire family of systems within the probability space; consequently, designers are able to produce robust and optimally performing systems at an optimal manufacturing cost. A kinematic tolerance analysis case-study is presented first to illustrate how the proposed methodology can be applied to treat geometric tolerances. A nonlinear vehicle suspension design problem, subject to parametric uncertainty, illustrates the capability of the new framework to produce an optimal design at an optimal manufacturing cost, accounting for the entire family of systems within the associated probability space. This case-study highlights the general nature of the new framework which is capable of optimally allocating uncertainties of multiple types and with large magnitudes in a single calculation