36 research outputs found

    A Decision Model for Emergency Warehouse Location Based on a Novel Stochastic MCDA Method: Evidence from China

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    China is one of the disaster-prone countries in the world. Constructing a rapid and effective relief logistic system is important for disaster-responding at country level. Strategic prepositioning of emergency items, especially the decision of appropriate emergency warehouses location, has significant impacts on rapid disaster response to ensure sufficient relief supplies. The emergency warehouse location decision is a complex problem, where a wide variety of criteria need to be considered and the preference information of decision makers (DMs) may be imprecise or even absent. In this paper, we identify key effectiveness-oriented criteria used to evaluate the alternative emergency warehouse locations and make an attempt to propose a new multicriteria ranking method to solve the problem of inaccurate or uncertain weight information based on stochastic pairwise dominant relations and the pruning procedure of ELECTRE-II method. The proposed method extends the conventional ELECTRE-II method by incorporating inaccurate information and broadens its application to emergency warehouse location field. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed method are illustrated with a simulated example

    Une méthode de tri multicritère multi-périodes pour la sélection de projet en contexte d'incertitude

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    RÉSUMÉ: Dans les dernières années, le gouvernement du Québec a souligné l'importance de la prise de décision dans un contexte de développement durable et de lutte contre les changements climatiques. L'évaluation des projets dans ce contexte devrait prendre en considération l'équilibre entre les critères économiques, sociaux et environnementaux à court, moyen et long terme. De plus, ces évaluations peuvent être imprécises et tâchées d'incertitude. Les problèmes de décision dans ce contexte sont complexes et caractérisés par les trois aspects suivants, à savoir l'aspect multicritère, l'aspect temporel et l'incertitude. Or, la plupart des méthodes multicritères sont statiques et seules quelques rares méthodes traitent l'aspect temporel des évaluations. En effet, des recherches récentes ont développé des méthodes multicritères multi-périodes de rangement mais au meilleur de notre connaissance, aucune méthode de tri multicritère multi-périodes ne fut développée à date. L'objectif de ce mémoire est de proposer une méthode de tri multicritère multi-périodes dans un contexte d'incertitude pour l'évaluation de la durabilité des projets. La méthode proposée est constituée de deux phases d'agrégation multicritère et d'agrégation multi-périodes. La première phase consiste à conduire les simulations Monte Carlo et à appliquer la méthode SMAA-Tri pour affecter à chaque période le projet à une des catégories prédéfinies. Ensuite, la phase d'agrégation multi-périodes propose d'agréger les résultats obtenus dans chaque période pour arriver à une affectation à la fois multicritère et multi-périodes. La méthode proposée a été appliquée dans le contexte d'aménagement forestier durable. Un projet d'aménagement spécifique qui consiste à implanter un plan de protection spécifique pour l'habitat du caribou a été trié selon un ensemble de critères évalués sur l'horizon de régénération de la forêt de 150 ans. L'incertitude a été simulée par 10000 simulations Monte Carlo à chacune des 30 périodes. Les résultats de cette application démontrent que la méthode proposée permet de généraliser la méthode SMAA Tri au contexte multi-périodes et aboutit à des résultats intéressants. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en français : Sélection de projet, Méthodes de tri multicritère, évaluations multi-périodes, Monte Carlo, incertitude, développement durable. -- ABSTRACT: In the last years, the government of Quebec emphasized sustainable and robust decision making in the context of climate change. Projects evaluation in this context must take into consideration the balance between economic, social and environmental criteria, over the short, medium and long term. Furthermore, decision criteria may be imprecise or uncertain. Decision-making problems in this context are complex and characterized by multi-criteria, temporal and uncertainty aspects. Yet, the majority of the multi-criteria methods are static and only few methods deal with temporal evaluations. In fact, recent studies proposed multi-criteria multi-period ranking methods but to the best of our knowledge, there is no multi-criteria multi-period sorting method proposed yet. The general objective of this research is to propose a multi-criteria multi-period sorting method in the context of uncertainty to be used for sustainability evaluations of projects. The proposed method is composed of two phases, the multi-criteria aggregation phase, and the multi-period aggregation phase. The aggregation phase consists of conducting the Monte-Carlo Simulations and applying the SMAA-TRI method at each period in order to sort the project in one of the predefined categories. Then, the multi-period aggregation proposes to aggregate the results obtained at each period in order to get a global sorting result. The proposed method is applied in the context of sustainable forest management. A particular project of forest management, that aims to implement a specific protection plan for the caribou habitat, is sorted according to a set of criteria evaluated over the regeneration forest horizon of 150 years. Uncertainty has been simulated with 10 000 Monte-Carlo simulations over 30 periods. The results of this application show that the proposed method generalizes the SMAA-TRI method to the multi-period context and provides interesting results. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en anglais : Project selection, multi-criteria sorting methods, multi-period evaluations, Monte Carlo, uncertainty, sustainable development

    Pemilihan Lift Berdasarkan Metode SMAA II Dan Metode VIKOR

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    Perkembangan Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) dalam beberapa tahun terakhir sangat pesat, banyak metode baru yang dikembangkan. Namun, beberapa metode yang telah dikembangkan belum banyak digunakan dalam praktiknya, sehingga masih sedikit pengetahuan tentang kinerja metode tersebut. Ada begitu banyak metode yang belum kita ketahui kinerjanya, apalagi jika pengambilan keputusan melibatkan banyak pihak dan banyak kriteria yang digunakan secara diskrit. Tujuan dari penulisan ini adalah untuk melihat performansi dari penggabungan dua metode yaitu Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis-2 (SMAA-2) dan VIKOR (Visekreterijumsko Optimizacija Kompromisno Rangiranje). Selain itu, kinerja dilihat dari studi kasus yang dilakukan pada proses pengambilan keputusan dalam pemilihan elevator. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa Central Weight (CW) metode SMAA-2 dapat digunakan sebagai pembobotan untuk metode VIKOR. Hasil penggabungan metode SMAA-2 dan metode VIKOR memberikan konsistensi dalam menyelesaikan pengambilan keputusan./ The development of Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) in recent years is very rapid, many new methods have been developed. However, some of the methods that have been developed have not been widely used in practice, so there is still little knowledge of the performance of these methods. There are so many methods that we don't know the performance of, especially if the decision-making involves many parties and many criteria are used discretely. The purpose of this paper is to see the performance of combining two methods, namely, Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis-2 (SMAA-2) and VIKOR (Visekreterijumsko Optimizacija Kompromisno Rangiranje). In addition, the performance is seen from case studies conducted on the decision making process in the selection of elevators. This study shows that the Central Weight (CW) of the SMAA-2 method can be used as a weighting for the VIKOR method. The results of combining the SMAA-2 method and the VIKOR method provide consistency in completing decision making

    A Review and Classification of Approaches for Dealing with Uncertainty in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Healthcare Decisions

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    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support decisions in healthcare involving multiple and conflicting criteria. Although uncertainty is usually carefully addressed in health economic evaluations, whether and how the different sources of uncertainty are dealt with and with what methods in MCDA is less known. The objective of this study is to review how uncertainty can be explicitly taken into account in MCDA and to discuss which approach may be appropriate for healthcare decision makers. A literature review was conducted in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Two reviewers independently categorized studies according to research areas, the type of MCDA used, and the approach used to quantify uncertainty. Selected full text articles were read for methodological details. The search strategy identified 569 studies. The five approaches most identified were fuzzy set theory (45 % of studies), probabilistic sensitivity analysis (15 %), deterministic sensitivity analysis (31 %), Bayesian framework (6 %), and grey theory (3 %). A large number of papers considered the analytic hierarchy process in combination with fuzzy set theory (31 %). Only 3 % of studies were published in healthcare-related journals. In conclusion, our review identified five different approaches to take uncertainty into account in MCDA. The deterministic approach is most likely sufficient for most healthcare policy decisions because of its low complexity and straightforward implementation. However, more complex approaches may be needed when multiple sources of uncertainty must be considered simultaneousl

    A review of application of multi-criteria decision making methods in construction

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    Construction is an area of study wherein making decisions adequately can mean the difference between success and failure. Moreover, most of the activities belonging to this sector involve taking into account a large number of conflicting aspects, which hinders their management as a whole. Multi-criteria decision making analysis arose to model complex problems like these. This paper reviews the application of 22 different methods belonging to this discipline in various areas of the construction industry clustered in 11 categories. The most significant methods are briefly discussed, pointing out their principal strengths and limitations. Furthermore, the data gathered while performing the paper are statistically analysed to identify different trends concerning the use of these techniques. The review shows their usefulness in characterizing very different decision making environments, highlighting the reliability acquired by the most pragmatic and widespread methods and the emergent tendency to use some of them in combination

    Research Agenda on Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making: New Academic Debates in Business and Management

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    [EN] Systemic disruptions are becoming more continuous, intense, and persistent. Their effects have a severe impact on the economy in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments that are increasingly transversal to productive sectors and activities. Researchers have intensified their academic production of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) in recent years. This article analyzes the research agenda through a systematic review of scientific articles in the Web of Science Core Collection according to the Journal Citation Report (JCR), both in the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI) and in the Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE). According to the selected search criteria, 909 articles on MCDM published between 1979 and 2022 in Web of Science journals in the business and management categories were located. A bibliometric analysis of the main thematic clusters, the international collaboration networks, and the bibliographic coupling of articles was carried out. In addition, the analysis period is divided into two subperiods (1979¿2008 and 2009¿2022), establishing 2008 as the threshold, the year of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), to assess the evolution of the research agenda at the beginning of systemic disruptions. The bibliometric analysis allows the identification of the motor, basic, specialized, and emerging themes of each subperiod. The results show the similarities and differences between the academic debate before and after the GFC. The evidence found allows academics to be guided in their high-impact research in business and management using MCDM methodologies to address contemporary challenges. An important contribution of this study is to detect gaps in the literature, highlighting unclosed gaps and emerging trends in the field of study for journal editors.Castello-Sirvent, F.; Meneses-Eraso, C. (2022). Research Agenda on Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making: New Academic Debates in Business and Management. Axioms. 11(10):1-37. https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms11100515137111

    Bibliometric analysis of scientific production on methods to aid decision making in the last 40 years

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    Purpose: Multicriteria methods have gained traction in both academia and industry practices for effective decision-making over the years. This bibliometric study aims to explore and provide an overview of research carried out on multicriteria methods, in its various aspects, over the past forty-four years. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus databases were searched for publications from January 1945 to April 29, 2021, on multicriteria methods in titles, abstracts, and keywords. The bibliographic data were analyzed using the R bibliometrix package. Findings: This bibliometric study asserts that 29,050 authors have produced 20,861 documents on the theme of multicriteria methods in 131 countries in the last forty-four years. Scientific production in this area grows at a rate of 13.88 per year. China is the leading country in publications with 14.14%; India with 10.76%; and Iran with 8.09%. Islamic Azad University leads others with 504 publications, followed by the Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with 456 and the National Institute of Technology with 336. As for journals, Expert Systems With Applications; Sustainability; and Journal of Cleaner Production are the leading journals, which account for more than 4.67% of all indexed literature. Furthermore, Zavadskas E. and Wang J have the highest publications in the multicriteria methods domain regarding the authors. Regarding the most commonly used multicriteria decision-making methods, AHP is the most favored approach among the ten countries with the most publications in this research area, followed by TOPSIS, VIKOR, PROMETHEE, and ANP. Practical implications: The bibliometric literature review method allows the researchers to explore the multicriteria research area more extensively than the traditional literature review method. It enables a large dataset of bibliographic records to be systematically analyzed through statistical measures, yielding informative insights. Originality/value: The usefulness of this bibliometric study is summed in presenting an overview of the topic of the multicriteria methods during the previous forty-four years, allowing other academics to use this research as a starting point for their research

    σ-µ efficiency analysis: A new methodology for evaluating units through composite indices

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    We propose a new methodology to employ composite indicators for performance analysis of units of interest using and extending the family of Stochastic Multiattribute Acceptability Analysis. We start evaluating each unit by means of weighted sums of their elementary indicators in the whole set of admissible weights. For each unit, we compute the mean, �, and the standard deviation, �, of its evaluations. Clearly, the former has to be maximized, while the latter has to be minimized as it denotes instability in the evaluations with respect to the variability of weights. We consider a unit to be Pareto-Koopmans efficient with respect to � and � if there is no convex combination of � and � of the rest of the units with a value of � that is not smaller, and a value of � that is not greater, with at least one strict inequality. The set of all Pareto-Koopmans efficient units constitutes the first Pareto-Koopmans frontier. In the spirit of context-dependent Data Envelopment Analysis, we assign each unit to one of the sequences of Pareto-Koopmans frontiers. We measure the local efficiency of each unit with respect to each frontier, but also its global efficiency taking into account all feasible frontiers in the
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