22,750 research outputs found
Aging functions and multivariate notions of NBU and IFR
For d≥2, let X=(X1, …, Xd) be a vector of exchangeable continuous lifetimes with joint survival function . For such models, we study some properties of multivariate aging of that are described by means of the multivariate aging function , which is a useful tool for describing the level curves of . Specifically, the attention is devoted to notions that generalize the univariate concepts of New Better than Used and Increasing Failure Rate. These multivariate notions are satisfied by random vectors whose components are conditionally independent and identically distributed having univariate conditional survival function that is New Better than Used (respectively, Increasing Failure Rate). Furthermore, they also have an interpretation in terms of comparisons among conditional survival functions of residual lifetimes, given a same history of observed survivals
Multivariate concave and convex stochastic dominance
Stochastic dominance permits a partial ordering of alternatives (probability distributions on consequences) based only on partial information about a decision maker’s utility function. Univariate stochastic dominance has been widely studied and applied, with general agreement on classes of utility functions for dominance of different degrees. Extensions to the multivariate case have received less attention and have used different classes of utility functions, some of which require strong assumptions about utility. We investigate multivariate stochastic dominance using a class of utility functions that is consistent with a basic preference assumption, can be related to well-known characteristics of utility, and is a natural extension of the stochastic order typically used in the univariate case. These utility functions are multivariate risk averse, and reversing the preference assumption allows us to investigate stochastic dominance for utility functions that are multivariate risk seeking. We provide insight into these two contrasting forms of stochastic dominance, develop some criteria to compare probability distributions (hence alternatives) via multivariate stochastic dominance, and illustrate how this dominance could be used in practice to identify inferior alternatives. Connections between our approach and dominance using different stochastic orders are discussed.decision analysis: multiple criteria, risk; group decisions; utility/preference: multiattribute utility, stochastic dominance, stochastic orders
Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions
We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of
multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for
decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis
problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating"
statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic,
simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the
decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using
classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio
utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock
index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical
utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table
Revisiting Relations between Stochastic Ageing and Dependence for Exchangeable Lifetimes with an Extension for the IFRA/DFRA Property
We first review an approach that had been developed in the past years to
introduce concepts of "bivariate ageing" for exchangeable lifetimes and to
analyze mutual relations among stochastic dependence, univariate ageing, and
bivariate ageing. A specific feature of such an approach dwells on the concept
of semi-copula and in the extension, from copulas to semi-copulas, of
properties of stochastic dependence. In this perspective, we aim to discuss
some intricate aspects of conceptual character and to provide the readers with
pertinent remarks from a Bayesian Statistics standpoint. In particular we will
discuss the role of extensions of dependence properties. "Archimedean" models
have an important role in the present framework. In the second part of the
paper, the definitions of Kendall distribution and of Kendall equivalence
classes will be extended to semi-copulas and related properties will be
analyzed. On such a basis, we will consider the notion of "Pseudo-Archimedean"
models and extend to them the analysis of the relations between the ageing
notions of IFRA/DFRA-type and the dependence concepts of PKD/NKD
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