Spintronics based Stochastic Computing for Efficient Bayesian Inference System

Bayesian inference is an effective approach for solving statistical learning problems especially with uncertainty and incompleteness. However, inference efficiencies are physically limited by the bottlenecks of conventional computing platforms. In this paper, an emerging Bayesian inference system is proposed by exploiting spintronics based stochastic computing. A stochastic bitstream generator is realized as the kernel components by leveraging the inherent randomness of spintronics devices. The proposed system is evaluated by typical applications of data fusion and Bayesian belief networks. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach could achieve significant improvement on inference efficiencies in terms of power consumption and inference speed.Comment: accepted by ASPDAC 2018 conferenc

Implementing a Bayes Filter in a Neural Circuit: The Case of Unknown Stimulus Dynamics

In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli which caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a Bayes filter, which applies Bayes' rule to combine population responses with the predictions of an internal model. In this paper we present a method for learning to approximate a Bayes filter when the stimulus dynamics are unknown. To do this we use the inferential properties of probabilistic population codes to compute Bayes' rule, and train a neural network to compute approximate predictions by the method of maximum likelihood. In particular, we perform stochastic gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood with a novel approximation of the gradient. We demonstrate our methods on a finite-state, a linear, and a nonlinear filtering problem, and show how the hidden layer of the neural network develops tuning curves which are consistent with findings in experimental neuroscience.Comment: This is the final version, and has been accepted for publication in Neural Computatio

Hardware implementation of Bayesian network building blocks with stochastic spintronic devices

Bayesian networks are powerful statistical models to understand causal relationships in real-world probabilistic problems such as diagnosis, forecasting, computer vision, etc. For systems that involve complex causal dependencies among many variables, the complexity of the associated Bayesian networks become computationally intractable. As a result, direct hardware implementation of these networks is one promising approach to reducing power consumption and execution time. However, the few hardware implementations of Bayesian networks presented in literature rely on deterministic CMOS devices that are not efficient in representing the inherently stochastic variables in a Bayesian network. This work presents an experimental demonstration of a Bayesian network building block implemented with naturally stochastic spintronic devices. These devices are based on nanomagnets with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy, initialized to their hard axes by the spin orbit torque from a heavy metal under-layer utilizing the giant spin Hall effect, enabling stochastic behavior. We construct an electrically interconnected network of two stochastic devices and manipulate the correlations between their states by changing connection weights and biases. By mapping given conditional probability tables to the circuit hardware, we demonstrate that any two node Bayesian networks can be implemented by our stochastic network. We then present the stochastic simulation of an example case of a four node Bayesian network using our proposed device, with parameters taken from the experiment. We view this work as a first step towards the large scale hardware implementation of Bayesian networks.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

QMDP-Net: Deep Learning for Planning under Partial Observability

This paper introduces the QMDP-net, a neural network architecture for planning under partial observability. The QMDP-net combines the strengths of model-free learning and model-based planning. It is a recurrent policy network, but it represents a policy for a parameterized set of tasks by connecting a model with a planning algorithm that solves the model, thus embedding the solution structure of planning in a network learning architecture. The QMDP-net is fully differentiable and allows for end-to-end training. We train a QMDP-net on different tasks so that it can generalize to new ones in the parameterized task set and "transfer" to other similar tasks beyond the set. In preliminary experiments, QMDP-net showed strong performance on several robotic tasks in simulation. Interestingly, while QMDP-net encodes the QMDP algorithm, it sometimes outperforms the QMDP algorithm in the experiments, as a result of end-to-end learning.Comment: NIPS 2017 camera-read

A building block for hardware belief networks

Belief networks represent a powerful approach to problems involving probabilistic inference, but much of the work in this area is software based utilizing standard deterministic hardware based on the transistor which provides the gain and directionality needed to interconnect billions of them into useful networks. This paper proposes a transistor like device that could provide an analogous building block for probabilistic networks. We present two proof-of-concept examples of belief networks, one reciprocal and one non-reciprocal, implemented using the proposed device which is simulated using experimentally benchmarked models.Comment: Keywords: stochastic, sigmoid, phase transition, spin glass, frustration, reduced frustration, Ising model, Bayesian network, Boltzmann machine. 23 pages, 9 figure

The impact of random actions on opinion dynamics

Opinion dynamics have fascinated researchers for centuries. The ability of societies to learn as well as the emergence of irrational {\it herding} are equally evident. The simplest example is that of agents that have to determine a binary action, under peer pressure coming from the decisions observed. By modifying several popular models for opinion dynamics so that agents internalize actions rather than smooth estimates of what other people think, we are able to prove that almost surely the actions final outcome remains random, even though actions can be consensual or polarized depending on the model. This is a theoretical confirmation that the mechanism that leads to the emergence of irrational herding behavior lies in the loss of nuanced information regarding the privately held beliefs behind the individuals decisions.Comment: 23 pages; 7 figure

Incremental Dynamic Construction of Layered Polytree Networks

Certain classes of problems, including perceptual data understanding, robotics, discovery, and learning, can be represented as incremental, dynamically constructed belief networks. These automatically constructed networks can be dynamically extended and modified as evidence of new individuals becomes available. The main result of this paper is the incremental extension of the singly connected polytree network in such a way that the network retains its singly connected polytree structure after the changes. The algorithm is deterministic and is guaranteed to have a complexity of single node addition that is at most of order proportional to the number of nodes (or size) of the network. Additional speed-up can be achieved by maintaining the path information. Despite its incremental and dynamic nature, the algorithm can also be used for probabilistic inference in belief networks in a fashion similar to other exact inference algorithms.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1994

Loopy Belief Propagation for Approximate Inference: An Empirical Study

Recently, researchers have demonstrated that loopy belief propagation - the use of Pearls polytree algorithm IN a Bayesian network WITH loops OF error- correcting codes.The most dramatic instance OF this IS the near Shannon - limit performance OF Turbo Codes codes whose decoding algorithm IS equivalent TO loopy belief propagation IN a chain - structured Bayesian network. IN this paper we ask : IS there something special about the error - correcting code context, OR does loopy propagation WORK AS an approximate inference schemeIN a more general setting? We compare the marginals computed using loopy propagation TO the exact ones IN four Bayesian network architectures, including two real - world networks : ALARM AND QMR.We find that the loopy beliefs often converge AND WHEN they do, they give a good approximation TO the correct marginals.However,ON the QMR network, the loopy beliefs oscillated AND had no obvious relationship TO the correct posteriors. We present SOME initial investigations INTO the cause OF these oscillations, AND show that SOME simple methods OF preventing them lead TO the wrong results.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1999

Consensus in the Presence of Multiple Opinion Leaders: Effect of Bounded Confidence

The problem of analyzing the performance of networked agents exchanging evidence in a dynamic network has recently grown in importance. This problem has relevance in signal and data fusion network applications and in studying opinion and consensus dynamics in social networks. Due to its capability of handling a wider variety of uncertainties and ambiguities associated with evidence, we use the framework of Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory to capture the opinion of an agent. We then examine the consensus among agents in dynamic networks in which an agent can utilize either a cautious or receptive updating strategy. In particular, we examine the case of bounded confidence updating where an agent exchanges its opinion only with neighboring nodes possessing 'similar' evidence. In a fusion network, this captures the case in which nodes only update their state based on evidence consistent with the node's own evidence. In opinion dynamics, this captures the notions of Social Judgment Theory (SJT) in which agents update their opinions only with other agents possessing opinions closer to their own. Focusing on the two special DS theoretic cases where an agent state is modeled as a Dirichlet body of evidence and a probability mass function (p.m.f.), we utilize results from matrix theory, graph theory, and networks to prove the existence of consensus agent states in several time-varying network cases of interest. For example, we show the existence of a consensus in which a subset of network nodes achieves a consensus that is adopted by follower network nodes. Of particular interest is the case of multiple opinion leaders, where we show that the agents do not reach a consensus in general, but rather converge to 'opinion clusters'. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the main results.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Signal and Information Processing Over Networks, to appea

Second Order Probabilities for Uncertain and Conflicting Evidence

In this paper the elicitation of probabilities from human experts is considered as a measurement process, which may be disturbed by random 'measurement noise'. Using Bayesian concepts a second order probability distribution is derived reflecting the uncertainty of the input probabilities. The algorithm is based on an approximate sample representation of the basic probabilities. This sample is continuously modified by a stochastic simulation procedure, the Metropolis algorithm, such that the sequence of successive samples corresponds to the desired posterior distribution. The procedure is able to combine inconsistent probabilities according to their reliability and is applicable to general inference networks with arbitrary structure. Dempster-Shafer probability mass functions may be included using specific measurement distributions. The properties of the approach are demonstrated by numerical experiments.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Sixth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1990