Asymptotic Bias of Stochastic Gradient Search

The asymptotic behavior of the stochastic gradient algorithm with a biased gradient estimator is analyzed. Relying on arguments based on the dynamic system theory (chain-recurrence) and the differential geometry (Yomdin theorem and Lojasiewicz inequality), tight bounds on the asymptotic bias of the iterates generated by such an algorithm are derived. The obtained results hold under mild conditions and cover a broad class of high-dimensional nonlinear algorithms. Using these results, the asymptotic properties of the policy-gradient (reinforcement) learning and adaptive population Monte Carlo sampling are studied. Relying on the same results, the asymptotic behavior of the recursive maximum split-likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models is analyzed, too.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:0907.102

Hamiltonian ABC

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and elegant framework for performing inference in simulation-based models. However, due to the difficulty in scaling likelihood estimates, ABC remains useful for relatively low-dimensional problems. We introduce Hamiltonian ABC (HABC), a set of likelihood-free algorithms that apply recent advances in scaling Bayesian learning using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and stochastic gradients. We find that a small number forward simulations can effectively approximate the ABC gradient, allowing Hamiltonian dynamics to efficiently traverse parameter spaces. We also describe a new simple yet general approach of incorporating random seeds into the state of the Markov chain, further reducing the random walk behavior of HABC. We demonstrate HABC on several typical ABC problems, and show that HABC samples comparably to regular Bayesian inference using true gradients on a high-dimensional problem from machine learning.Comment: Submission to UAI 201

Variational Sequential Monte Carlo

Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior. In this paper we present a new approximating family of distributions, the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) family, and show how to optimize it in variational inference. VSMC melds variational inference (VI) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), providing practitioners with flexible, accurate, and powerful Bayesian inference. The VSMC family is a variational family that can approximate the posterior arbitrarily well, while still allowing for efficient optimization of its parameters. We demonstrate its utility on state space models, stochastic volatility models for financial data, and deep Markov models of brain neural circuits

Higher-order numerical methods for stochastic simulation of\ud chemical reaction systems

In this paper, using the framework of extrapolation, we present an approach for obtaining higher-order -leap methods for the Monte Carlo simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics. Specifically, Richardson extrapolation is applied to the expectations of functionals obtained by a fixed-step -leap algorithm. We prove that this procedure gives rise to second-order approximations for the first two moments obtained by the chemical master equation for zeroth- and first-order chemical systems. Numerical simulations verify that this is also the case for higher-order chemical systems of biological importance. This approach, as in the case of ordinary and stochastic differential equations, can be repeated to obtain even higher-order approximations. We illustrate the results of a second extrapolation on two systems. The biggest barrier for observing higher-order convergence is the Monte Carlo error; we discuss different strategies for reducing it