Game-Theoretic and Machine-Learning Techniques for Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience in Smart Grid

The smart grid is the next-generation electrical infrastructure utilizing Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), whose architecture is evolving from a utility-centric structure to a distributed Cyber-Physical System (CPS) integrated with a large-scale of renewable energy resources. However, meeting reliability objectives in the smart grid becomes increasingly challenging owing to the high penetration of renewable resources and changing weather conditions. Moreover, the cyber-physical attack targeted at the smart grid has become a major threat because millions of electronic devices interconnected via communication networks expose unprecedented vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the potential attack surface. This dissertation is aimed at developing novel game-theoretic and machine-learning techniques for addressing the reliability and security issues residing at multiple layers of the smart grid, including power distribution system reliability forecasting, risk assessment of cyber-physical attacks targeted at the grid, and cyber attack detection in the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and renewable resources. This dissertation first comprehensively investigates the combined effect of various weather parameters on the reliability performance of the smart grid, and proposes a multilayer perceptron (MLP)-based framework to forecast the daily number of power interruptions in the distribution system using time series of common weather data. Regarding evaluating the risk of cyber-physical attacks faced by the smart grid, a stochastic budget allocation game is proposed to analyze the strategic interactions between a malicious attacker and the grid defender. A reinforcement learning algorithm is developed to enable the two players to reach a game equilibrium, where the optimal budget allocation strategies of the two players, in terms of attacking/protecting the critical elements of the grid, can be obtained. In addition, the risk of the cyber-physical attack can be derived based on the successful attack probability to various grid elements. Furthermore, this dissertation develops a multimodal data-driven framework for the cyber attack detection in the power distribution system integrated with renewable resources. This approach introduces the spare feature learning into an ensemble classifier for improving the detection efficiency, and implements the spatiotemporal correlation analysis for differentiating the attacked renewable energy measurements from fault scenarios. Numerical results based on the IEEE 34-bus system show that the proposed framework achieves the most accurate detection of cyber attacks reported in the literature. To address the electricity theft in the AMI, a Distributed Intelligent Framework for Electricity Theft Detection (DIFETD) is proposed, which is equipped with Benford’s analysis for initial diagnostics on large smart meter data. A Stackelberg game between utility and multiple electricity thieves is then formulated to model the electricity theft actions. Finally, a Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) is utilized to detect potentially fraudulent meters

Cyber-Physical Power System (CPPS): A Review on Modelling, Simulation, and Analysis with Cyber Security Applications

Cyber-Physical System (CPS) is a new kind of digital technology that increases its attention across academia, government, and industry sectors and covers a wide range of applications like agriculture, energy, medical, transportation, etc. The traditional power systems with physical equipment as a core element are more integrated with information and communication technology, which evolves into the Cyber-Physical Power System (CPPS). The CPPS consists of a physical system tightly integrated with cyber systems (control, computing, and communication functions) and allows the two-way flows of electricity and information for enabling smart grid technologies. Even though the digital technologies monitoring and controlling the electric power grid more efficiently and reliably, the power grid is vulnerable to cybersecurity risk and involves the complex interdependency between cyber and physical systems. Analyzing and resolving the problems in CPPS needs the modelling methods and systematic investigation of a complex interaction between cyber and physical systems. The conventional way of modelling, simulation, and analysis involves the separation of physical domain and cyber domain, which is not suitable for the modern CPPS. Therefore, an integrated framework needed to analyze the practical scenario of the unification of physical and cyber systems. A comprehensive review of different modelling, simulation, and analysis methods and different types of cyber-attacks, cybersecurity measures for modern CPPS is explored in this paper. A review of different types of cyber-attack detection and mitigation control schemes for the practical power system is presented in this paper. The status of the research in CPPS around the world and a new path for recommendations and research directions for the researchers working in the CPPS are finally presented.publishedVersio

Optimal Attack against Cyber-Physical Control Systems with Reactive Attack Mitigation

This paper studies the performance and resilience of a cyber-physical control system (CPCS) with attack detection and reactive attack mitigation. It addresses the problem of deriving an optimal sequence of false data injection attacks that maximizes the state estimation error of the system. The results provide basic understanding about the limit of the attack impact. The design of the optimal attack is based on a Markov decision process (MDP) formulation, which is solved efficiently using the value iteration method. Using the proposed framework, we quantify the effect of false positives and mis-detections on the system performance, which can help the joint design of the attack detection and mitigation. To demonstrate the use of the proposed framework in a real-world CPCS, we consider the voltage control system of power grids, and run extensive simulations using PowerWorld, a high-fidelity power system simulator, to validate our analysis. The results show that by carefully designing the attack sequence using our proposed approach, the attacker can cause a large deviation of the bus voltages from the desired setpoint. Further, the results verify the optimality of the derived attack sequence and show that, to cause maximum impact, the attacker must carefully craft his attack to strike a balance between the attack magnitude and stealthiness, due to the simultaneous presence of attack detection and mitigation

State of the art of cyber-physical systems security: An automatic control perspective

Cyber-physical systems are integrations of computation, networking, and physical processes. Due to the tight cyber-physical coupling and to the potentially disrupting consequences of failures, security here is one of the primary concerns. Our systematic mapping study sheds light on how security is actually addressed when dealing with cyber-physical systems from an automatic control perspective. The provided map of 138 selected studies is defined empirically and is based on, for instance, application fields, various system components, related algorithms and models, attacks characteristics and defense strategies. It presents a powerful comparison framework for existing and future research on this hot topic, important for both industry and academia

Application of Game Theory to Improve the Defense of the Smart Grid

This thesis presents the development and evaluation of a distributed agent based system using reputation based trust and game theoretic techniques to improve the defense of the future smart grid from cyber-attack and equipment malfunctions. Future smart grid capabilities promise to leverage network technologies to revolutionize the production, transmission, distribution and consumption of electrical power. However, the internet like communication also increase the power grid\u27s vulnerability to cyber-attack. This thesis uses simulation linking power systems with communication networks to demonstrate the benefits of a Distributed Decision Making Communication Enable Special Protection System (SPS) using reputation based trust and game theory to protect the power grid from malicious and non-malicious malfunctions. The simulations show that a distributed approach to SPS load shedding successfully maintains power grid stability after an electrical disturbance while using reputation based trust to defend the load shedding from cyber-attack and equipment malfunction. Additional simulations demonstrate the application of game theory to defend the SPS load shedding process when available resources prevent the monitoring and defense of every part of the power grid. The demonstrated capability increases the resiliency of the power grid by preventing uncontrolled blackouts through detection and mitigation of attacks, improving the system\u27s reliability

Interoperable Simulation and Serious Games for creating an Open Cyber Range

The paper proposes an open architecture to support the creation of a synthetic environment devoted to simulate complex scenarios related to the protection of cyber-physical systems. The proposed approach is based on applying the combination of interoperable simulation and serious games to develop a framework where different models, as well as real equipment, could interoperate based on High Level Architecture standard. By this approach, it becomes possible to create a federation reproducing a scenario including multiple physical and cyber layers interacting dynamically and reproducing complex situations. The authors propose an example of specific case study conceptually developed to apply this approach

Reliability Evaluation and Defense Strategy Development for Cyber-physical Power Systems

With the smart grid initiatives in recent years, the electric power grid is rapidly evolving into a complicated and interconnected cyber-physical system. Unfortunately, the wide deployment of cutting-edge communication, control and computer technologies in the power system, as well as the increasing terrorism activities, make the power system at great risk of attacks from both cyber and physical domains. It is pressing and meaningful to investigate the plausible attack scenarios and develop efficient methods for defending the power system against them. To defend the power grid, it is critical to first study how the attacks could happen and affect the power system, which are the basis for the defense strategy development. Thus, this dissertation quantifies the influence of several typical attacks on power system reliability. Specifically, three representative attack are considered, i.e., intrusion against substations, regional LR attack, and coordinated attacks. For the intrusion against substations, the occurrence frequency of the attack events is modeled based on statistical data and human dynamics; game-theoretical approaches are adopted to model induvial and consecutive attack cases; Monte Carlo simulation is deployed to obtain the desired reliability indices, which incorporates both the attacks and the random failures. For the false data injection attack, a practical regional load redistribution (LR) attack strategy is proposed; the man-in-the-middle (MITM) intrusion process is modeled with a semi-Markov process method; the reliability indices are obtained based on the regional LR attack strategy and the MITM intrusion process using Monte Carlo simulation. For the coordinated attacks, a few typical coordination strategies are proposed considering attacking the current-carrying elements as well as attacking the measurements; a bilevel optimization method is applied to develop the optimal coordination strategy. Further, efficient and effective defense strategies are proposed from the perspectives of power system operation strategy and identification of critical elements. Specially, a robustness-oriented power grid operation strategy is proposed considering the element random failures and the risk of man-made attacks. Using this operation strategy, the power system operation is robust, and can minimize the load loss in case of malicious man-made attacks. Also, a multiple-attack-scenario (MAS) defender-attack-defender model is proposed to identify the critical branches that should be defended when an attack is anticipated but the defender has uncertainty about the capability of the attacker. If those identified critical branches are protected, the expected load loss will be minimal