1,853 research outputs found
Advances in machine learning algorithms for financial risk management
In this thesis, three novel machine learning techniques are introduced to address distinct
yet interrelated challenges involved in financial risk management tasks. These approaches
collectively offer a comprehensive strategy, beginning with the precise classification of credit
risks, advancing through the nuanced forecasting of financial asset volatility, and ending
with the strategic optimisation of financial asset portfolios.
Firstly, a Hybrid Dual-Resampling and Cost-Sensitive technique has been proposed to combat the prevalent issue of class imbalance in financial datasets, particularly in credit risk
assessment. The key process involves the creation of heuristically balanced datasets to effectively address the problem. It uses a resampling technique based on Gaussian mixture
modelling to generate a synthetic minority class from the minority class data and concurrently uses k-means clustering on the majority class. Feature selection is then performed
using the Extra Tree Ensemble technique. Subsequently, a cost-sensitive logistic regression
model is then applied to predict the probability of default using the heuristically balanced
datasets. The results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed technique, with superior
performance observed in comparison to other imbalanced preprocessing approaches. This
advancement in credit risk classification lays a solid foundation for understanding individual
financial behaviours, a crucial first step in the broader context of financial risk management.
Building on this foundation, the thesis then explores the forecasting of financial asset volatility, a critical aspect of understanding market dynamics. A novel model that combines a
Triple Discriminator Generative Adversarial Network with a continuous wavelet transform
is proposed. The proposed model has the ability to decompose volatility time series into
signal-like and noise-like frequency components, to allow the separate detection and monitoring of non-stationary volatility data. The network comprises of a wavelet transform
component consisting of continuous wavelet transforms and inverse wavelet transform components, an auto-encoder component made up of encoder and decoder networks, and a
Generative Adversarial Network consisting of triple Discriminator and Generator networks.
The proposed Generative Adversarial Network employs an ensemble of unsupervised loss derived from the Generative Adversarial Network component during training, supervised
loss and reconstruction loss as part of its framework. Data from nine financial assets are
employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. This approach not only
enhances our understanding of market fluctuations but also bridges the gap between individual credit risk assessment and macro-level market analysis.
Finally the thesis ends with a novel proposal of a novel technique or Portfolio optimisation. This involves the use of a model-free reinforcement learning strategy for portfolio
optimisation using historical Low, High, and Close prices of assets as input with weights of
assets as output. A deep Capsules Network is employed to simulate the investment strategy, which involves the reallocation of the different assets to maximise the expected return
on investment based on deep reinforcement learning. To provide more learning stability in
an online training process, a Markov Differential Sharpe Ratio reward function has been
proposed as the reinforcement learning objective function. Additionally, a Multi-Memory
Weight Reservoir has also been introduced to facilitate the learning process and optimisation of computed asset weights, helping to sequentially re-balance the portfolio throughout
a specified trading period. The use of the insights gained from volatility forecasting into
this strategy shows the interconnected nature of the financial markets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrated that our proposed technique is capable of achieving
superior results based on risk-adjusted reward performance measures.
In a nut-shell, this thesis not only addresses individual challenges in financial risk management but it also incorporates them into a comprehensive framework; from enhancing the
accuracy of credit risk classification, through the improvement and understanding of market
volatility, to optimisation of investment strategies. These methodologies collectively show
the potential of the use of machine learning to improve financial risk management
UMSL Bulletin 2023-2024
The 2023-2024 Bulletin and Course Catalog for the University of Missouri St. Louis.https://irl.umsl.edu/bulletin/1088/thumbnail.jp
Towards Neuromorphic Gradient Descent: Exact Gradients and Low-Variance Online Estimates for Spiking Neural Networks
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are biologically-plausible models that can run on low-powered non-Von Neumann neuromorphic hardware, positioning them as promising alternatives to conventional Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) for energy-efficient edge computing and robotics. Over the past few years, the Gradient Descent (GD) and Error Backpropagation (BP) algorithms used in DNNs have inspired various training methods for SNNs. However, the non-local and the reverse nature of BP, combined with the inherent non-differentiability of spikes, represent fundamental obstacles to computing gradients with SNNs directly on neuromorphic hardware. Therefore, novel approaches are required to overcome the limitations of GD and BP and enable online gradient computation on neuromorphic hardware.
In this thesis, I address the limitations of GD and BP with SNNs by proposing three algorithms. First, I extend a recent method that computes exact gradients with temporally-coded SNNs by relaxing the firing constraint of temporal coding and allowing multiple spikes per neuron. My proposed method generalizes the computation of exact gradients with SNNs and enhances the tradeoffs between performance and various other aspects of spiking neurons. Next, I introduce a novel alternative to BP that computes low-variance gradient estimates in a local and online manner. Compared to other alternatives to BP, the proposed method demonstrates an improved convergence rate and increased performance with DNNs. Finally, I combine these two methods and propose an algorithm that estimates gradients with SNNs in a manner that is compatible with the constraints of neuromorphic hardware. My empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting algorithm in training SNNs without performing BP
UMSL Bulletin 2022-2023
The 2022-2023 Bulletin and Course Catalog for the University of Missouri St. Louis.https://irl.umsl.edu/bulletin/1087/thumbnail.jp
Beam scanning by liquid-crystal biasing in a modified SIW structure
A fixed-frequency beam-scanning 1D antenna based on Liquid Crystals (LCs) is designed for application in 2D scanning with lateral alignment. The 2D array environment imposes full decoupling of adjacent 1D antennas, which often conflicts with the LC requirement of DC biasing: the proposed design accommodates both. The LC medium is placed inside a Substrate Integrated Waveguide (SIW) modified to work as a Groove Gap Waveguide, with radiating slots etched on the upper broad wall, that radiates as a Leaky-Wave Antenna (LWA). This allows effective application of the DC bias voltage needed for tuning the LCs. At the same time, the RF field remains laterally confined, enabling the possibility to lay several antennas in parallel and achieve 2D beam scanning. The design is validated by simulation employing the actual properties of a commercial LC medium
Novel 129Xe Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Spectroscopy Measurements of Pulmonary Gas-Exchange
Gas-exchange is the primary function of the lungs and involves removing carbon dioxide from the body and exchanging it within the alveoli for inhaled oxygen. Several different pulmonary, cardiac and cardiovascular abnormalities have negative effects on pulmonary gas-exchange. Unfortunately, clinical tests do not always pinpoint the problem; sensitive and specific measurements are needed to probe the individual components participating in gas-exchange for a better understanding of pathophysiology, disease progression and response to therapy.
In vivo Xenon-129 gas-exchange magnetic resonance imaging (129Xe gas-exchange MRI) has the potential to overcome these challenges. When participants inhale hyperpolarized 129Xe gas, it has different MR spectral properties as a gas, as it diffuses through the alveolar membrane and as it binds to red-blood-cells. 129Xe MR spectroscopy and imaging provides a way to tease out the different anatomic components of gas-exchange simultaneously and provides spatial information about where abnormalities may occur.
In this thesis, I developed and applied 129Xe MR spectroscopy and imaging to measure gas-exchange in the lungs alongside other clinical and imaging measurements. I measured 129Xe gas-exchange in asymptomatic congenital heart disease and in prospective, controlled studies of long-COVID. I also developed mathematical tools to model 129Xe MR signals during acquisition and reconstruction. The insights gained from my work underscore the potential for 129Xe gas-exchange MRI biomarkers towards a better understanding of cardiopulmonary disease. My work also provides a way to generate a deeper imaging and physiologic understanding of gas-exchange in vivo in healthy participants and patients with chronic lung and heart disease
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Meets Deep Learning
This reprint focuses on the application of the combination of synthetic aperture radars and depth learning technology. It aims to further promote the development of SAR image intelligent interpretation technology. A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an important active microwave imaging sensor, whose all-day and all-weather working capacity give it an important place in the remote sensing community. Since the United States launched the first SAR satellite, SAR has received much attention in the remote sensing community, e.g., in geological exploration, topographic mapping, disaster forecast, and traffic monitoring. It is valuable and meaningful, therefore, to study SAR-based remote sensing applications. In recent years, deep learning represented by convolution neural networks has promoted significant progress in the computer vision community, e.g., in face recognition, the driverless field and Internet of things (IoT). Deep learning can enable computational models with multiple processing layers to learn data representations with multiple-level abstractions. This can greatly improve the performance of various applications. This reprint provides a platform for researchers to handle the above significant challenges and present their innovative and cutting-edge research results when applying deep learning to SAR in various manuscript types, e.g., articles, letters, reviews and technical reports
Tradition and Innovation in Construction Project Management
This book is a reprint of the Special Issue 'Tradition and Innovation in Construction Project Management' that was published in the journal Buildings
Investigating the Effects of Network Dynamics on Quality of Delivery Prediction and Monitoring for Video Delivery Networks
Video streaming over the Internet requires an optimized delivery system given the advances in network architecture, for example, Software Defined Networks. Machine Learning (ML) models have been deployed in an attempt to predict the quality of the video streams. Some of these efforts have considered the prediction of Quality of Delivery (QoD) metrics of the video stream in an effort to measure the quality of the video stream from the network perspective. In most cases, these models have either treated the ML algorithms as black-boxes or failed to capture the network dynamics of the associated video streams.
This PhD investigates the effects of network dynamics in QoD prediction using ML techniques. The hypothesis that this thesis investigates is that ML techniques that model the underlying network dynamics achieve accurate QoD and video quality predictions and measurements. The thesis results demonstrate that the proposed techniques offer performance gains over approaches that fail to consider network dynamics. This thesis results highlight that adopting the correct model by modelling the dynamics of the network infrastructure is crucial to the accuracy of the ML predictions. These results are significant as they demonstrate that improved performance is achieved at no additional computational or storage cost. These techniques can help the network manager, data center operatives and video service providers take proactive and corrective actions for improved network efficiency and effectiveness
Markov field models of molecular kinetics
Computer simulations such as molecular dynamics (MD) provide a possible means to understand protein dynamics and mechanisms on an atomistic scale. The resulting simulation data can be analyzed with Markov state models (MSMs), yielding a quantitative kinetic model that, e.g., encodes state populations and transition rates. However, the larger an investigated system, the more data is required to estimate a valid kinetic model. In this work, we show that this scaling problem can be escaped when decomposing a system into smaller ones, leveraging weak couplings between local domains. Our approach, termed independent Markov decomposition (IMD), is a first-order approximation neglecting couplings, i.e., it represents a decomposition of the underlying global dynamics into a set of independent local ones. We demonstrate that for truly independent systems, IMD can reduce the sampling by three orders of magnitude. IMD is applied to two biomolecular systems. First, synaptotagmin-1 is analyzed, a rapid calcium switch from the neurotransmitter release machinery. Within its C2A domain, local conformational switches are identified and modeled with independent MSMs, shedding light on the mechanism of its calcium-mediated activation. Second, the catalytic site of the serine protease TMPRSS2 is analyzed with a local drug-binding model. Equilibrium populations of different drug-binding modes are derived for three inhibitors, mirroring experimentally determined drug efficiencies. IMD is subsequently extended to an end-to-end deep learning framework called iVAMPnets, which learns a domain decomposition from simulation data and simultaneously models the kinetics in the local domains. We finally classify IMD and iVAMPnets as Markov field models (MFM), which we define as a class of models that describe dynamics by decomposing systems into local domains. Overall, this thesis introduces a local approach to Markov modeling that enables to quantitatively assess the kinetics of large macromolecular complexes, opening up possibilities to tackle current and future computational molecular biology questions
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