Non-global parameter estimation using local ensemble Kalman filtering

We study parameter estimation for non-global parameters in a low-dimensional chaotic model using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). By modifying existing techniques for using observational data to estimate global parameters, we present a methodology whereby spatially-varying parameters can be estimated using observations only within a localized region of space. Taking a low-dimensional nonlinear chaotic conceptual model for atmospheric dynamics as our numerical testbed, we show that this parameter estimation methodology accurately estimates parameters which vary in both space and time, as well as parameters representing physics absent from the model

Forecasting the SST space-time variability of the Alboran Sea with genetic algorithms

We propose a nonlinear ocean forecasting technique based on a combination of genetic algorithms and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The method is used to forecast the space-time variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Alboran Sea. The genetic algorithm finds the equations that best describe the behaviour of the different temporal amplitude functions in the EOF decomposition and, therefore, enables global forecasting of the future time-variability.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures; latex compiled with agums.st

Estimating the uncertainty of areal precipitation using data assimilation

We present a method to estimate spatially and temporally variable uncertainty of areal precipitation data. The aim of the method is to merge measurements from different sources, remote sensing and in situ, into a combined precipitation product and to provide an associated dynamic uncertainty estimate. This estimate should provide an accurate representation of uncertainty both in time and space, an adjustment to additional observations merged into the product through data assimilation, and flow dependency. Such a detailed uncertainty description is important for example to generate precipitation ensembles for probabilistic hydrological modelling or to specify accurate error covariances when using precipitation observations for data assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The presented method uses the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter and an ensemble nowcasting model. The model provides information about the precipitation displacement over time and is continuously updated by assimilation of observations. In this way, the precipitation product and its uncertainty estimate provided by the nowcasting ensemble evolve consistently in time and become flow-dependent. The method is evaluated in a proof of concept study focusing on weather radar data of four precipitation events. The study demonstrates that the dynamic areal uncertainty estimate outperforms a constant benchmark uncertainty value in all cases for one of the evaluated scores, and in half the number of cases for the other score. Thus, the flow dependency introduced by the coupling of data assimilation and nowcasting enables a more accurate spatial and temporal distribution of uncertainty. The mixed results achieved in the second score point out the importance of a good probabilistic nowcasting scheme for the performance of the method