From Iteration to System Failure: Characterizing the FITness of Periodic Weakly-Hard Systems

Estimating metrics such as the Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) or its inverse, the Failures-In-Time (FIT), is a central problem in reliability estimation of safety-critical systems. To this end, prior work in the real-time and embedded systems community has focused on bounding the probability of failures in a single iteration of the control loop, resulting in, for example, the worst-case probability of a message transmission error due to electromagnetic interference, or an upper bound on the probability of a skipped or an incorrect actuation. However, periodic systems, which can be found at the core of most safety-critical real-time systems, are routinely designed to be robust to a single fault or to occasional failures (case in point, control applications are usually robust to a few skipped or misbehaving control loop iterations). Thus, obtaining long-run reliability metrics like MTTF and FIT from single iteration estimates by calculating the time to first fault can be quite pessimistic. Instead, overall system failures for such systems are better characterized using multi-state models such as weakly-hard constraints. In this paper, we describe and empirically evaluate three orthogonal approaches, PMC, Mart, and SAp, for the sound estimation of system\u27s MTTF, starting from a periodic stochastic model characterizing the failure in a single iteration of a periodic system, and using weakly-hard constraints as a measure of system robustness. PMC and Mart are exact analyses based on Markov chain analysis and martingale theory, respectively, whereas SAp is a sound approximation based on numerical analysis. We evaluate these techniques empirically in terms of their accuracy and numerical precision, their expressiveness for different definitions of weakly-hard constraints, and their space and time complexities, which affect their scalability and applicability in different regions of the space of weakly-hard constraints

An exact stochastic analysis of priority-driven periodic real-time systems and its approximations.

Abstract This paper describes a stochastic analysis framework which computes the response time distribution and the deadline miss probability of individual tasks, even for systems with a maximum utilization greater than one. The framework is uniformly applied to fixed-priority and dynamic-priority systems and can handle tasks with arbitrary relative deadlines and execution time distributions

A systematic search for close supermassive black hole binaries in the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey

Hierarchical assembly models predict a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. These are not resolvable by direct imaging but may be detectable via periodic variability (or nanohertz frequency gravitational waves). Following our detection of a 5.2 year periodic signal in the quasar PG 1302-102 (Graham et al. 2015), we present a novel analysis of the optical variability of 243,500 known spectroscopically confirmed quasars using data from the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) to look for close (< 0.1 pc) SMBH systems. Looking for a strong Keplerian periodic signal with at least 1.5 cycles over a baseline of nine years, we find a sample of 111 candidate objects. This is in conservative agreement with theoretical predictions from models of binary SMBH populations. Simulated data sets, assuming stochastic variability, also produce no equivalent candidates implying a low likelihood of spurious detections. The periodicity seen is likely attributable to either jet precession, warped accretion disks or periodic accretion associated with a close SMBH binary system. We also consider how other SMBH binary candidates in the literature appear in CRTS data and show that none of these are equivalent to the identified objects. Finally, the distribution of objects found is consistent with that expected from a gravitational wave-driven population. This implies that circumbinary gas is present at small orbital radii and is being perturbed by the black holes. None of the sources is expected to merge within at least the next century. This study opens a new unique window to study a population of close SMBH binaries that must exist according to our current understanding of galaxy and SMBH evolution.Comment: 29 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS - this version contains extended table and figur

Discriminating chaotic and stochastic dynamics through the permutation spectrum test

In this paper, we propose a new heuristic symbolic tool for unveiling chaotic and stochastic dynamics: the permutation spectrum test. Several numerical examples allow us to confirm the usefulness of the introduced methodology. Indeed, we show that it is robust in situations in which other techniques fail (intermittent chaos, hyperchaotic dynamics, stochastic linear and nonlinear correlated dynamics, and deterministic non-chaotic noise-driven dynamics). We illustrate the applicability and reliability of this pragmatic method by examining real complex time series from diverse scientific fields. Taking into account that the proposed test has the advantages of being conceptually simple and computationally fast, we think that it can be of practical utility as an alternative test for determinism. The importance of distinguishing between periodic, chaotic, and stochastic dynamics from time series analysis is well-recognized for understanding the mechanisms that govern the regarded complex systems. In this work, we have introduced a conceptually simple and computationally fast symbolic visual test for discriminating chaotic and stochastic dynamics, called the permutation spectrum test. Because the symbolization is made by implementing the Bandt and Pompe methodology, all the advantages associated with this natural encoding (simplicity, extremely fast calculation, robustness, and invariance with respect to monotonous transformations) are inherited by the permutation spectrum test. We have shown that this pragmatic approach is robust in situations in which other tests fail. We have also confirmed its practical utility by examining several experimental and natural time series.Centro de Investigaciones Óptica

A simple method for detecting chaos in nature

Chaos, or exponential sensitivity to small perturbations, appears everywhere in nature. Moreover, chaos is predicted to play diverse functional roles in living systems. A method for detecting chaos from empirical measurements should therefore be a key component of the biologist's toolkit. But, classic chaos-detection tools are highly sensitive to measurement noise and break down for common edge cases, making it difficult to detect chaos in domains, like biology, where measurements are noisy. However, newer tools promise to overcome these limitations. Here, we combine several such tools into an automated processing pipeline, and show that our pipeline can detect the presence (or absence) of chaos in noisy recordings, even for difficult edge cases. As a first-pass application of our pipeline, we show that heart rate variability is not chaotic as some have proposed, and instead reflects a stochastic process in both health and disease. Our tool is easy-to-use and freely available

An Analytical Solution for Probabilistic Guarantees of Reservation Based Soft Real-Time Systems

We show a methodology for the computation of the probability of deadline miss for a periodic real-time task scheduled by a resource reservation algorithm. We propose a modelling technique for the system that reduces the computation of such a probability to that of the steady state probability of an infinite state Discrete Time Markov Chain with a periodic structure. This structure is exploited to develop an efficient numeric solution where different accuracy/computation time trade-offs can be obtained by operating on the granularity of the model. More importantly we offer a closed form conservative bound for the probability of a deadline miss. Our experiments reveal that the bound remains reasonably close to the experimental probability in one real-time application of practical interest. When this bound is used for the optimisation of the overall Quality of Service for a set of tasks sharing the CPU, it produces a good sub-optimal solution in a small amount of time.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems, Volume:27, Issue: 3, March 201

Multifractal characterization of stochastic resonance

We use a multifractal formalism to study the effect of stochastic resonance in a noisy bistable system driven by various input signals. To characterize the response of a stochastic bistable system we introduce a new measure based on the calculation of a singularity spectrum for a return time sequence. We use wavelet transform modulus maxima method for the singularity spectrum computations. It is shown that the degree of multifractality defined as a width of singularity spectrum can be successfully used as a measure of complexity both in the case of periodic and aperiodic (stochastic or chaotic) input signals. We show that in the case of periodic driving force singularity spectrum can change its structure qualitatively becoming monofractal in the regime of stochastic synchronization. This fact allows us to consider the degree of multifractality as a new measure of stochastic synchronization also. Moreover, our calculations have shown that the effect of stochastic resonance can be catched by this measure even from a very short return time sequence. We use also the proposed approach to characterize the noise-enhanced dynamics of a coupled stochastic neurons model.Comment: 10 pages, 21 EPS-figures, RevTe