Opinion formation about childhood immunization and disease spread on networks

People are physically and socially connected with each other. Those connections between people represent two, probably overlapping, networks: biological networks, through which physical contacts occur, or social network, through which information diffuse. In my thesis research, I am trying to answer that question in the context of pediatric disease spread on the biological network between households as well as within them and its relationship with information sharing on the social network of households (parents in that case) via Information Cascades. I mainly focus on the Erdos-Renyi network model. In particular, I use two different but overlapping Erdos-Renyi networks for the biological and social networks in the model. I am using agent-based stochastic simulations implemented in MatLab to study the modeling results

Adaptive Network Dynamics and Evolution of Leadership in Collective Migration

The evolution of leadership in migratory populations depends not only on costs and benefits of leadership investments but also on the opportunities for individuals to rely on cues from others through social interactions. We derive an analytically tractable adaptive dynamic network model of collective migration with fast timescale migration dynamics and slow timescale adaptive dynamics of individual leadership investment and social interaction. For large populations, our analysis of bifurcations with respect to investment cost explains the observed hysteretic effect associated with recovery of migration in fragmented environments. Further, we show a minimum connectivity threshold above which there is evolutionary branching into leader and follower populations. For small populations, we show how the topology of the underlying social interaction network influences the emergence and location of leaders in the adaptive system. Our model and analysis can describe other adaptive network dynamics involving collective tracking or collective learning of a noisy, unknown signal, and likewise can inform the design of robotic networks where agents use decentralized strategies that balance direct environmental measurements with agent interactions.Comment: Submitted to Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomen

Combination interventions for Hepatitis C and Cirrhosis reduction among people who inject drugs: An agent-based, networked population simulation experiment

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is endemic in people who inject drugs (PWID), with prevalence estimates above 60 percent for PWID in the United States. Previous modeling studies suggest that direct acting antiviral (DAA) treatment can lower overall prevalence in this population, but treatment is often delayed until the onset of advanced liver disease (fibrosis stage 3 or later) due to cost. Lower cost interventions featuring syringe access (SA) and medically assisted treatment (MAT) for addiction are known to be less costly, but have shown mixed results in lowering HCV rates below current levels. Little is known about the potential synergistic effects of combining DAA and MAT treatment, and large-scale tests of combined interventions are rare. While simulation experiments can reveal likely long-term effects, most prior simulations have been performed on closed populations of model agents--a scenario quite different from the open, mobile populations known to most health agencies. This paper uses data from the Centers for Disease Control's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance project, IDU round 3, collected in New York City in 2012 by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to parameterize simulations of open populations. Our results show that, in an open population, SA/MAT by itself has only small effects on HCV prevalence, while DAA treatment by itself can significantly lower both HCV and HCV-related advanced liver disease prevalence. More importantly, the simulation experiments suggest that cost effective synergistic combinations of the two strategies can dramatically reduce HCV incidence. We conclude that adopting SA/MAT implementations alongside DAA interventions can play a critical role in reducing the long-term consequences of ongoing infection