Rules and principles in cognitive diagnoses

Cognitive simulation is concerned with constructing process models of human cognitive behavior. Our work on the ACM system (Automated Cognitive Modeler) is an attempt to automate this process. The basic assumption is that all goal-oriented cognitive behavior involves search through some problem space. Within this framework, the task of cognitive diagnosis is to identify the problem space in which the subject is operating, identify solution paths used by the subject, and find conditions on the operators that explain those solution paths and that predict the subject's behavior on new problems. The work presented in this paper uses techniques from machine learning to automate the tasks of finding solution paths and operator conditions. We apply this method to the domain of multi-column subtraction and present results that demonstrate ACM's ability to model incorrect subtraction strategies. Finally, we discuss the difference between procedural bugs and misconceptions, proposing that errors due to misconceptions can be viewed as violations of principles for the task domain

Smoothing Method for Approximate Extensive-Form Perfect Equilibrium

Nash equilibrium is a popular solution concept for solving imperfect-information games in practice. However, it has a major drawback: it does not preclude suboptimal play in branches of the game tree that are not reached in equilibrium. Equilibrium refinements can mend this issue, but have experienced little practical adoption. This is largely due to a lack of scalable algorithms. Sparse iterative methods, in particular first-order methods, are known to be among the most effective algorithms for computing Nash equilibria in large-scale two-player zero-sum extensive-form games. In this paper, we provide, to our knowledge, the first extension of these methods to equilibrium refinements. We develop a smoothing approach for behavioral perturbations of the convex polytope that encompasses the strategy spaces of players in an extensive-form game. This enables one to compute an approximate variant of extensive-form perfect equilibria. Experiments show that our smoothing approach leads to solutions with dramatically stronger strategies at information sets that are reached with low probability in approximate Nash equilibria, while retaining the overall convergence rate associated with fast algorithms for Nash equilibrium. This has benefits both in approximate equilibrium finding (such approximation is necessary in practice in large games) where some probabilities are low while possibly heading toward zero in the limit, and exact equilibrium computation where the low probabilities are actually zero.Comment: Published at IJCAI 1

Churn Prediction Task in MOOC

Churn prediction is a common task for machine learning applications in business. In this paper, this task is adapted for solving problem of low efficiency of massive open online courses (only 5% of all the students finish their course). The approach is presented on course “Methods and algorithms of the graph theory” held on national platform of online education in Russia. This paper includes all the steps to build an intelligent system to predict students who are active during the course, but not likely to finish it. The first part consists of constructing the right sample for prediction, EDA and choosing the most appropriate week of the course to make predictions on. The second part is about choosing the right metric and building models. Also, approach with using ensembles like stacking is proposed to increase the accuracy of predictions. As a result, a general approach to build a churn prediction model for online course is reviewed. This approach can be used for making the process of online education adaptive and intelligent for a separate student