Statistical Feature Combination for the Evaluation of Game Positions

This article describes an application of three well-known statistical methods in the field of game-tree search: using a large number of classified Othello positions, feature weights for evaluation functions with a game-phase-independent meaning are estimated by means of logistic regression, Fisher's linear discriminant, and the quadratic discriminant function for normally distributed features. Thereafter, the playing strengths are compared by means of tournaments between the resulting versions of a world-class Othello program. In this application, logistic regression - which is used here for the first time in the context of game playing - leads to better results than the other approaches.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

Dynamic Move Chains -- a Forward Pruning Approach to Tree Search in Computer Chess

This paper proposes a new mechanism for pruning a search game-tree in computer chess. The algorithm stores and then reuses chains or sequences of moves, built up from previous searches. These move sequences have a built-in forward-pruning mechanism that can radically reduce the search space. A typical search process might retrieve a move from a Transposition Table, where the decision of what move to retrieve would be based on the position itself. This algorithm stores move sequences based on what previous sequences were better, or caused cutoffs. This is therefore position independent and so it could also be useful in games with imperfect information or uncertainty, where the whole situation is not known at any one time. Over a small set of tests, the algorithm was shown to clearly out-perform Transposition Tables, both in terms of search reduction and game-play results.Comment: Publishe

Fantasy Football Prediction

The ubiquity of professional sports and specifically the NFL have lead to an increase in popularity for Fantasy Football. Users have many tools at their disposal: statistics, predictions, rankings of experts and even recommendations of peers. There are issues with all of these, though. Especially since many people pay money to play, the prediction tools should be enhanced as they provide unbiased and easy-to-use assistance for users. This paper provides and discusses approaches to predict Fantasy Football scores of Quarterbacks with relatively limited data. In addition to that, it includes several suggestions on how the data could be enhanced to achieve better results. The dataset consists only of game data from the last six NFL seasons. I used two different methods to predict the Fantasy Football scores of NFL players: Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Neural Networks. The results of both are promising given the limited data that was used.Comment: class project, 7 pages (1 sources, 1 appendix

Chess Endgames and Neural Networks

The existence of endgame databases challenges us to extract higher-grade information and knowledge from their basic data content. Chess players, for example, would like simple and usable endgame theories if such holy grail exists: endgame experts would like to provide such insights and be inspired by computers to do so. Here, we investigate the use of artificial neural networks (NNs) to mine these databases and we report on a first use of NNs on KPK. The results encourage us to suggest further work on chess applications of neural networks and other data-mining techniques

Artificial Intelligence as Structural Estimation: Economic Interpretations of Deep Blue, Bonanza, and AlphaGo

Artificial intelligence (AI) has achieved superhuman performance in a growing number of tasks, but understanding and explaining AI remain challenging. This paper clarifies the connections between machine-learning algorithms to develop AIs and the econometrics of dynamic structural models through the case studies of three famous game AIs. Chess-playing Deep Blue is a calibrated value function, whereas shogi-playing Bonanza is an estimated value function via Rust's (1987) nested fixed-point method. AlphaGo's "supervised-learning policy network" is a deep neural network implementation of Hotz and Miller's (1993) conditional choice probability estimation; its "reinforcement-learning value network" is equivalent to Hotz, Miller, Sanders, and Smith's (1994) conditional choice simulation method. Relaxing these AIs' implicit econometric assumptions would improve their structural interpretability

A Comparism of the Performance of Supervised and Unsupervised Machine Learning Techniques in evolving Awale/Mancala/Ayo Game Player

Awale games have become widely recognized across the world, for their innovative strategies and techniques which were used in evolving the agents (player) and have produced interesting results under various conditions. This paper will compare the results of the two major machine learning techniques by reviewing their performance when using minimax, endgame database, a combination of both techniques or other techniques, and will determine which are the best techniques.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

A Computer Composes A Fabled Problem: Four Knights vs. Queen

We explain how the prototype automatic chess problem composer, Chesthetica, successfully composed a rare and interesting chess problem using the new Digital Synaptic Neural Substrate (DSNS) computational creativity approach. This problem represents a greater challenge from a creative standpoint because the checkmate is not always clear and the method of winning even less so. Creating a decisive chess problem of this type without the aid of an omniscient 7-piece endgame tablebase (and one that also abides by several chess composition conventions) would therefore be a challenge for most human players and composers working on their own. The fact that a small computer with relatively low processing power and memory was sufficient to compose such a problem using the DSNS approach in just 10 days is therefore noteworthy. In this report we document the event and result in some detail. It lends additional credence to the DSNS as a viable new approach in the field of computational creativity. In particular, in areas where human-like creativity is required for targeted or specific problems with no clear path to the solution.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures and 2 appendice

A Survey on Content-Aware Video Analysis for Sports

Sports data analysis is becoming increasingly large-scale, diversified, and shared, but difficulty persists in rapidly accessing the most crucial information. Previous surveys have focused on the methodologies of sports video analysis from the spatiotemporal viewpoint instead of a content-based viewpoint, and few of these studies have considered semantics. This study develops a deeper interpretation of content-aware sports video analysis by examining the insight offered by research into the structure of content under different scenarios. On the basis of this insight, we provide an overview of the themes particularly relevant to the research on content-aware systems for broadcast sports. Specifically, we focus on the video content analysis techniques applied in sportscasts over the past decade from the perspectives of fundamentals and general review, a content hierarchical model, and trends and challenges. Content-aware analysis methods are discussed with respect to object-, event-, and context-oriented groups. In each group, the gap between sensation and content excitement must be bridged using proper strategies. In this regard, a content-aware approach is required to determine user demands. Finally, the paper summarizes the future trends and challenges for sports video analysis. We believe that our findings can advance the field of research on content-aware video analysis for broadcast sports.Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems for Video Technology (TCSVT

Induction, of and by Probability

This paper examines some methods and ideas underlying the author's successful probabilistic learning systems(PLS), which have proven uniquely effective and efficient in generalization learning or induction. While the emerging principles are generally applicable, this paper illustrates them in heuristic search, which demands noise management and incremental learning. In our approach, both task performance and learning are guided by probability. Probabilities are incrementally normalized and revised, and their errors are located and corrected.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the First Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1985

Proceedings of Mathsport international 2017 conference

Proceedings of MathSport International 2017 Conference, held in the Botanical Garden of the University of Padua, June 26-28, 2017. MathSport International organizes biennial conferences dedicated to all topics where mathematics and sport meet. Topics include: performance measures, optimization of sports performance, statistics and probability models, mathematical and physical models in sports, competitive strategies, statistics and probability match outcome models, optimal tournament design and scheduling, decision support systems, analysis of rules and adjudication, econometrics in sport, analysis of sporting technologies, financial valuation in sport, e-sports (gaming), betting and sports