Spatial interactions in agent-based modeling

Agent Based Modeling (ABM) has become a widespread approach to model complex interactions. In this chapter after briefly summarizing some features of ABM the different approaches in modeling spatial interactions are discussed. It is stressed that agents can interact either indirectly through a shared environment and/or directly with each other. In such an approach, higher-order variables such as commodity prices, population dynamics or even institutions, are not exogenously specified but instead are seen as the results of interactions. It is highlighted in the chapter that the understanding of patterns emerging from such spatial interaction between agents is a key problem as much as their description through analytical or simulation means. The chapter reviews different approaches for modeling agents' behavior, taking into account either explicit spatial (lattice based) structures or networks. Some emphasis is placed on recent ABM as applied to the description of the dynamics of the geographical distribution of economic activities, - out of equilibrium. The Eurace@Unibi Model, an agent-based macroeconomic model with spatial structure, is used to illustrate the potential of such an approach for spatial policy analysis.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, 105 references; a chapter prepared for the book "Complexity and Geographical Economics - Topics and Tools", P. Commendatore, S.S. Kayam and I. Kubin, Eds. (Springer, in press, 2014

Ising model for distribution networks

An elementary Ising spin model is proposed for demonstrating cascading failures (break-downs, blackouts, collapses, avalanches, ...) that can occur in realistic networks for distribution and delivery by suppliers to consumers. A ferromagnetic Hamiltonian with quenched random fields results from policies that maximize the gap between demand and delivery. Such policies can arise in a competitive market where firms artificially create new demand, or in a solidary environment where too high a demand cannot reasonably be met. Network failure in the context of a policy of solidarity is possible when an initially active state becomes metastable and decays to a stable inactive state. We explore the characteristics of the demand and delivery, as well as the topological properties, which make the distribution network susceptible of failure. An effective temperature is defined, which governs the strength of the activity fluctuations which can induce a collapse. Numerical results, obtained by Monte Carlo simulations of the model on (mainly) scale-free networks, are supplemented with analytic mean-field approximations to the geometrical random field fluctuations and the thermal spin fluctuations. The role of hubs versus poorly connected nodes in initiating the breakdown of network activity is illustrated and related to model parameters

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Visual analytics for supply network management: system design and evaluation

We propose a visual analytic system to augment and enhance decision-making processes of supply chain managers. Several design requirements drive the development of our integrated architecture and lead to three primary capabilities of our system prototype. First, a visual analytic system must integrate various relevant views and perspectives that highlight different structural aspects of a supply network. Second, the system must deliver required information on-demand and update the visual representation via user-initiated interactions. Third, the system must provide both descriptive and predictive analytic functions for managers to gain contingency intelligence. Based on these capabilities we implement an interactive web-based visual analytic system. Our system enables managers to interactively apply visual encodings based on different node and edge attributes to facilitate mental map matching between abstract attributes and visual elements. Grounded in cognitive fit theory, we demonstrate that an interactive visual system that dynamically adjusts visual representations to the decision environment can significantly enhance decision-making processes in a supply network setting. We conduct multi-stage evaluation sessions with prototypical users that collectively confirm the value of our system. Our results indicate a positive reaction to our system. We conclude with implications and future research opportunities.The authors would like to thank the participants of the 2015 Businessvis Workshop at IEEE VIS, Prof. Benoit Montreuil, and Dr. Driss Hakimi for their valuable feedback on an earlier version of the software; Prof. Manpreet Hora for assisting with and Georgia Tech graduate students for participating in the evaluation sessions; and the two anonymous reviewers for their detailed comments and suggestions. The study was in part supported by the Tennenbaum Institute at Georgia Tech Award # K9305. (K9305 - Tennenbaum Institute at Georgia Tech Award)Accepted manuscrip

Congestion Pricing: Long-Term Economic and Land-Use Effects

We employ a spatially disaggregated general equilibrium model of a regional economy that incorporates decisions of residents, firms, and developers integrated with a spatially disaggregated strategic transportation planning (START) model that features mode, time period, and route choice to evaluate economic effects of congestion pricing. First, we evaluate the long-run effects of a road-pricing policy based on the integrated model of land use, strategic transport, and regional economy (LUSTRE) and compare them with the short-term effects obtained from the START model alone. We then look at distributional effects of the policy in question and point out differences and similarities in the short run versus the long run. Finally, we analyze the mechanisms at the source of the economic and land-use effects induced by the road-pricing policy.traffic congestion, welfare analysis, CGE modeling, cordon tolls, distributional effects