A canonical space-time state space model: state and parameter estimation

The maximum likelihood estimation of a dynamic spatiotemporal model is introduced, centred around the inclusion of a prior arbitrary spatiotemporal neighborhood description. The neighborhood description defines a specific parameterization of the state transition matrix, chosen on the basis of prior knowledge about the system. The model used is inspired by the spatiotemporal ARMA (STARMA) model, but the representation used is based on the standard state-space model. The inclusion of the neighborhood into an expectation-maximization based joint state and parameter estimation algorithm allows for accurate characterization of the spatiotemporal model. The process of including the neighborhood, and the effect it has on the maximum likelihood parameter estimate is described and demonstrated in this paper

State-Space Interpretation of Model Predictive Control

A model predictive control technique based on a step response model is developed using state estimation techniques. The standard step response model is extended so that integrating systems can be treated within the same framework. Based on the modified step response model, it is shown how the state estimation techniques from stochastic optimal control can be used to construct the optimal prediction vector without introducing significant additional numerical complexity. In the case of integrated or double integrated white noise disturbances filtered through general first-order dynamics and white measurement noise, the optimal filter gain is parametrized explicitly in terms of a single parameter between 0 and 1, thus removing the requirement for solving a Riccati equation and equipping the control system with useful on-line tuning parameters. Parallels are drawn to the existing MPC techniques such as Dynamic Matrix Control (DMC), Internal Model Control (IMC) and Generalized Predictive Control (GPC)

Endogenous Fishing Mortalities: a State-Space Bioeconomic Model

A methodology that endogenously determines catchability functions that link fi shing mortality with contemporaneous stock abundance is presented. We consider a stochastic age-structured model for a fishery composed by a number of fi shing units (fleets, vessels or métiers) that optimally select the level of fishing effort to be applied considering total mortalities as given. The introduction of a balance constrain which guarantees that total mortality is equal to the sum of individual fi shing mortalities optimally selected, enables total fishing mortality to be determined as a combination of contemporaneous abundance and stochastic processes affecting the fishery. In this way, future abundance can be projected as a dynamic system that depends on contemporaneous abundance. The model is generic and can be applied to several issues of fisheries management. In particular, we illustrate how to apply the methodology to assess the floating band target management regime for controlling fishing mortalities which is inspired in the new multi-annual plans. Our results support this management regime for the Mediterranean demersal fishery in Northern Spain.This work was funded by the European Commission as part of the MINOUW project (H2020-SFS-2014-2, number 634495) and the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (ECO2016-78819-R, AEI/FEDER, UE

Linear State-Space Model with Time-Varying Dynamics

This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights in the linear combination is modelled by another linear Gaussian dynamical model allowing the model to learn how the dynamics of the process changes. Previous approaches have used switching models which have a small set of possible state dynamics matrices and the model selects one of those matrices at each time, thus jumping between them. Our model forms the dynamics as a linear combination and the changes can be smooth and more continuous. The model is motivated by physical processes which are described by linear partial differential equations whose parameters vary in time. An example of such a process could be a temperature field whose evolution is driven by a varying wind direction. The posterior inference is performed using variational Bayesian approximation. The experiments on stochastic advection-diffusion processes and real-world weather processes show that the model with time-varying dynamics can outperform previously introduced approaches.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-44851-9_2

SPDL Model Checking via Property-Driven State Space Generation

In this report we describe how both, memory and time requirements for stochastic model checking of SPDL (stochastic propositional dynamic logic) formulae can significantly be reduced. SPDL is the stochastic extension of the multi-modal program logic PDL.\ud SPDL provides means to specify path-based properties with or without timing restrictions. Paths can be characterised by so-called programs, essentially regular expressions, where the executability can be made dependent on the validity of test formulae. For model-checking SPDL path formulae it is necessary to build a product transition system (PTS)\ud between the system model and the program automaton belonging to the path formula that is to be verified.\ud In many cases, this PTS can be drastically reduced during the model checking procedure, as the program restricts the number of potentially satisfying paths. Therefore, we propose an approach that directly generates the reduced PTS from a given SPA specification and an SPDL path formula.\ud The feasibility of this approach is shown through a selection of case studies, which show enormous state space reductions, at no increase in generation time.\u

A non-Gaussian continuous state space model for asset degradation

The degradation model plays an essential role in asset life prediction and condition based maintenance. Various degradation models have been proposed. Within these models, the state space model has the ability to combine degradation data and failure event data. The state space model is also an effective approach to deal with the multiple observations and missing data issues. Using the state space degradation model, the deterioration process of assets is presented by a system state process which can be revealed by a sequence of observations. Current research largely assumes that the underlying system development process is discrete in time or states. Although some models have been developed to consider continuous time and space, these state space models are based on the Wiener process with the Gaussian assumption. This paper proposes a Gamma-based state space degradation model in order to remove the Gaussian assumption. Both condition monitoring observations and failure events are considered in the model so as to improve the accuracy of asset life prediction. A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the application procedure of the proposed model

Graphical State Space Model

In this paper, a new framework, named as graphical state space model, is proposed for the real time optimal estimation of a class of nonlinear state space model. By discretizing this kind of system model as an equation which can not be solved by Extended Kalman filter, factor graph optimization can outperform Extended Kalman filter in some cases. A simple nonlinear example is given to demonstrate the efficiency of this framework

A Tractable State-Space Model for Symmetric Positive-Definite Matrices

Bayesian analysis of state-space models includes computing the posterior distribution of the system's parameters as well as filtering, smoothing, and predicting the system's latent states. When the latent states wander around $\mathbb{R}^n$ there are several well-known modeling components and computational tools that may be profitably combined to achieve these tasks. However, there are scenarios, like tracking an object in a video or tracking a covariance matrix of financial assets returns, when the latent states are restricted to a curve within $\mathbb{R}^n$ and these models and tools do not immediately apply. Within this constrained setting, most work has focused on filtering and less attention has been paid to the other aspects of Bayesian state-space inference, which tend to be more challenging. To that end, we present a state-space model whose latent states take values on the manifold of symmetric positive-definite matrices and for which one may easily compute the posterior distribution of the latent states and the system's parameters, in addition to filtered distributions and one-step ahead predictions. Deploying the model within the context of finance, we show how one can use realized covariance matrices as data to predict latent time-varying covariance matrices. This approach out-performs factor stochastic volatility.Comment: 22 pages: 16 pages main manuscript, 4 pages appendix, 2 pages reference