Robust variance-constrained filtering for a class of nonlinear stochastic systems with missing measurements

The official published version of the article can be found at the link below.This paper is concerned with the robust filtering problem for a class of nonlinear stochastic systems with missing measurements and parameter uncertainties. The missing measurements are described by a binary switching sequence satisfying a conditional probability distribution, and the nonlinearities are expressed by the statistical means. The purpose of the filtering problem is to design a filter such that, for all admissible uncertainties and possible measurements missing, the dynamics of the filtering error is exponentially mean-square stable, and the individual steady-state error variance is not more than prescribed upper bound. A sufficient condition for the exponential mean-square stability of the filtering error system is first derived and an upper bound of the state estimation error variance is then obtained. In terms of certain linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), the solvability of the addressed problem is discussed and the explicit expression of the desired filters is also parameterized. Finally, a simulation example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed design approach.This work was supported in part by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the UK under Grant GR/S27658/01, the Royal Society of the UK and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

A probabilistic interpretation of set-membership filtering: application to polynomial systems through polytopic bounding

Set-membership estimation is usually formulated in the context of set-valued calculus and no probabilistic calculations are necessary. In this paper, we show that set-membership estimation can be equivalently formulated in the probabilistic setting by employing sets of probability measures. Inference in set-membership estimation is thus carried out by computing expectations with respect to the updated set of probability measures P as in the probabilistic case. In particular, it is shown that inference can be performed by solving a particular semi-infinite linear programming problem, which is a special case of the truncated moment problem in which only the zero-th order moment is known (i.e., the support). By writing the dual of the above semi-infinite linear programming problem, it is shown that, if the nonlinearities in the measurement and process equations are polynomial and if the bounding sets for initial state, process and measurement noises are described by polynomial inequalities, then an approximation of this semi-infinite linear programming problem can efficiently be obtained by using the theory of sum-of-squares polynomial optimization. We then derive a smart greedy procedure to compute a polytopic outer-approximation of the true membership-set, by computing the minimum-volume polytope that outer-bounds the set that includes all the means computed with respect to P

Closed-Loop Statistical Verification of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems Subject to Parametric Uncertainties

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the proposed framework constructs a GP regression model and predicts the system's performance over the entire set of possible uncertainties. Included in the framework is a new metric to estimate the confidence in those predictions based on the variance of the GP's cumulative distribution function. This variance-based metric forms the basis of active sampling algorithms that aim to minimize prediction error through careful selection of simulations. In three case studies, the new active sampling algorithms demonstrate up to a 35% improvement in prediction error over other approaches and are able to correctly identify regions with low prediction confidence through the variance metric.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to ACC 201