On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability

Telling Cause from Effect using MDL-based Local and Global Regression

We consider the fundamental problem of inferring the causal direction between two univariate numeric random variables $X$ and $Y$ from observational data. The two-variable case is especially difficult to solve since it is not possible to use standard conditional independence tests between the variables. To tackle this problem, we follow an information theoretic approach based on Kolmogorov complexity and use the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle to provide a practical solution. In particular, we propose a compression scheme to encode local and global functional relations using MDL-based regression. We infer $X$ causes $Y$ in case it is shorter to describe $Y$ as a function of $X$ than the inverse direction. In addition, we introduce Slope, an efficient linear-time algorithm that through thorough empirical evaluation on both synthetic and real world data we show outperforms the state of the art by a wide margin.Comment: 10 pages, To appear in ICDM1

An MDL framework for sparse coding and dictionary learning

The power of sparse signal modeling with learned over-complete dictionaries has been demonstrated in a variety of applications and fields, from signal processing to statistical inference and machine learning. However, the statistical properties of these models, such as under-fitting or over-fitting given sets of data, are still not well characterized in the literature. As a result, the success of sparse modeling depends on hand-tuning critical parameters for each data and application. This work aims at addressing this by providing a practical and objective characterization of sparse models by means of the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle -- a well established information-theoretic approach to model selection in statistical inference. The resulting framework derives a family of efficient sparse coding and dictionary learning algorithms which, by virtue of the MDL principle, are completely parameter free. Furthermore, such framework allows to incorporate additional prior information to existing models, such as Markovian dependencies, or to define completely new problem formulations, including in the matrix analysis area, in a natural way. These virtues will be demonstrated with parameter-free algorithms for the classic image denoising and classification problems, and for low-rank matrix recovery in video applications