Deep Kernels for Optimizing Locomotion Controllers

Sample efficiency is important when optimizing parameters of locomotion controllers, since hardware experiments are time consuming and expensive. Bayesian Optimization, a sample-efficient optimization framework, has recently been widely applied to address this problem, but further improvements in sample efficiency are needed for practical applicability to real-world robots and high-dimensional controllers. To address this, prior work has proposed using domain expertise for constructing custom distance metrics for locomotion. In this work we show how to learn such a distance metric automatically. We use a neural network to learn an informed distance metric from data obtained in high-fidelity simulations. We conduct experiments on two different controllers and robot architectures. First, we demonstrate improvement in sample efficiency when optimizing a 5-dimensional controller on the ATRIAS robot hardware. We then conduct simulation experiments to optimize a 16-dimensional controller for a 7-link robot model and obtain significant improvements even when optimizing in perturbed environments. This demonstrates that our approach is able to enhance sample efficiency for two different controllers, hence is a fitting candidate for further experiments on hardware in the future.Comment: (Rika Antonova and Akshara Rai contributed equally

Adversarially Robust Optimization with Gaussian Processes

In this paper, we consider the problem of Gaussian process (GP) optimization with an added robustness requirement: The returned point may be perturbed by an adversary, and we require the function value to remain as high as possible even after this perturbation. This problem is motivated by settings in which the underlying functions during optimization and implementation stages are different, or when one is interested in finding an entire region of good inputs rather than only a single point. We show that standard GP optimization algorithms do not exhibit the desired robustness properties, and provide a novel confidence-bound based algorithm StableOpt for this purpose. We rigorously establish the required number of samples for StableOpt to find a near-optimal point, and we complement this guarantee with an algorithm-independent lower bound. We experimentally demonstrate several potential applications of interest using real-world data sets, and we show that StableOpt consistently succeeds in finding a stable maximizer where several baseline methods fail.Comment: Corrected typo

Safe Controller Optimization for Quadrotors with Gaussian Processes

One of the most fundamental problems when designing controllers for dynamic systems is the tuning of the controller parameters. Typically, a model of the system is used to obtain an initial controller, but ultimately the controller parameters must be tuned manually on the real system to achieve the best performance. To avoid this manual tuning step, methods from machine learning, such as Bayesian optimization, have been used. However, as these methods evaluate different controller parameters on the real system, safety-critical system failures may happen. In this paper, we overcome this problem by applying, for the first time, a recently developed safe optimization algorithm, SafeOpt, to the problem of automatic controller parameter tuning. Given an initial, low-performance controller, SafeOpt automatically optimizes the parameters of a control law while guaranteeing safety. It models the underlying performance measure as a Gaussian process and only explores new controller parameters whose performance lies above a safe performance threshold with high probability. Experimental results on a quadrotor vehicle indicate that the proposed method enables fast, automatic, and safe optimization of controller parameters without human intervention.Comment: IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, 2016. 6 pages, 4 figures. A video of the experiments can be found at http://tiny.cc/icra16_video . A Python implementation of the algorithm is available at https://github.com/befelix/SafeOp

Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison

Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table