Monte Carlo experiments of market demand theory

This study investigated the present theory for market demand and discussed the limitations and restrictions of theory from an empirical perspective. The objective of the study was to set up a Monte Carlo model to analyze the relationship between consumer demand and market demand and investigate the market approximation characteristics in light of aggregation conditions. Assuming that income and prices follow lognormal distributions individual optimal allocations were computed and aggregated to market data. Then various market demand systems were applied and approximation characteristics were studied in terms of bias and variance of elasticities. The analyses were carried in several experiments based on different individual demand systems under various assumptions of distributions of income and prices;The results indicated that bias in elasticities may be considerable. The numerical exercises also indicated that rejection rate of Slutsky restrictions increased as the assumption of constant variance of distribution of income and prices was relaxed;Quadratic response surfaces for bias as percent of true elasticities and variance of Slutsky restrictions were also fitted based on experiments following a Central Composite design;The design factors included some of the individual demand coefficients and variance of income and price distributions. The fitted quadratic response surfaces for bias in elasticities indicated that the design factors were not important. On the other hand, the response surfaces fitted for variance of Slutsky restrictions indicated that the design factors were important

Investment Under Uncertainty, Market Evolution and Coalition Spillovers in a Game Theoretic Perspective.

The rationality assumption has been the center of neo-classical economics for more than half a century now. In recent years much research has focussed on models of bounded rationality. In this thesis it is argued that both full and bounded rationality can be used for different kind of problems. In the first part full rationality is assumed to analyse technology adoption by firms in a duopolistic and uncertain environment. In the second part, boundedly rational models are developed to study the evolution of market structure in oligopolistic markets as well as price formation on (possibly) incomplete financial markets. The third part of the thesis presents an alternative to the framework of Transferable Utility games in cooperative game theory. The model introduced here explicitly takes into account the outside options that players often have in real-life situations if they choose not to participate in a coalition.

The Bayes mind: From the St. Petersburg paradox to the New York Stock Exchange.

The thesis is an exposition and defence of Bayesianism as the preferred methodology of reasoning under uncertainty in social contexts. Chapter 1 gives a general outline of the foundations of probabilistic reasoning, as well as a critical exposition of the main non- Bayesian approaches to probability. After a brief discussion of the formal theory of probability, the thesis examines some non-Bayesian interpretations of the probability calculus, and purports to show their insufficiency. Chapter 2 provides an outline of the Bayesian (subjectivist) research programme. The opening sections of the chapter contain a historical overview of Bayesianism, as well as a defence of the assumptions on which it rests. The concluding sections then examine some of the key issues of contention between Bayesians and their critics, such as the nature of empirical confirmation and learning from experience. Since it is the author's contention that any sound methodology should be applicable, if necessary with modifications, across a wide range of contexts, the concluding two chapters make a Bayesian case first in a theoretical, and next in a practical setting. In particular, Chapter 3 discusses the issue of simplicity as a theoretical virtue. It argues that a Bayesian can coherently and successfully account for the structural or formal simplicity of the hypotheses that he entertains, by using his assignments of subjective prior probabilities in the process known as 'Bayesian Conditionalisation'. It also argues that some of the recent criticisms voiced against the Bayesian account of simplicity are inconsistent and/or question-begging. The process known in statistics as 'curve-fitting' provides the material for the discussion. Finally, Chapter 4 presents an extension of the Bayesian methodology to practical decision-making, using the context of investing activity. It purports to show that the most convincing picture of economic agents' investing behaviour is best explained by assuming that in the course of such behaviour, the agents maximise their expected utility, as is stipulated by the Bayesian decision theory. The argument revolves around the 'Efficient Markets Hypothesis' in the theory of finance, and the conclusion hinges both on the empirical adequacy of the various versions of this hypothesis and on its behavioural underpinnings. The thesis contains two appendices, intended to illustrate certain points made in the main body. The first appendix is a critical appraisal of a popular non-Bayesian account of causal inference in statistical contexts, with a bearing on the discussion in Chapter 3, while the second appendix provides a real-life illustration of some of the issues raised in Chapter 4. The overall structure of the thesis is intended to show how, from highly plausible assumptions, one can derive a powerful theory of reasoning under uncertainty that faithfully and uniformly represents both the theoretical and the practical concerns of the human mind

STABILITY OF EXCESS DEMAND FUNCTIONS WITH RESPECT TO A STRONG VERSION OF WALD'S AXIOM

In this paper, a use of s-quasimonotonicity [introduced in Optimization, Vol. 55 (2006)] in an economics model is presented. We introduce a strong version of Wald's Axiom of excess demand functions $Z : P \subset \mathbb{R}_{>0}^n \to \mathbb{R}^n$, namely "there exists σ > 0 such that p, q ∈ P, qT Z(p) - δ ≤ 0,|δ| 0". Under some assumptions, Z satisfies the strong version of Wald's Axiom iff -Z is a s-quasimonotone function. Consequently, an excess demand function Z satisfies the strong version of Wald's Axiom iff -Z is stable with respect to the pseudomonotonicity property (i.e. there exists ∊ > 0 such that -Z + a fulfills the pseudomonotonicity property for all a ∈ ℝn satisfying ‖a‖Pseudomonotonicity, s-quasimonotonicity, excess demand function, Walras' Law, Wald's Axiom

Graduate Catalog 1990-1992

Bowling Green State University Graduate catalog for 1990-1992.https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/catalogs/1035/thumbnail.jp

Space programs summary no. 37-27, volume IV for the period April 1, 1964 to May 31, 1964. Supporting research and advanced development

Space exploration programs - systems analysis - spacecraft power and guidance systems - propellant engineering and communications system

Einstein, history, and other passions : the rebellion against science at the end of the twentieth century

History of Scienc

Pest and Pathogen Control: Strategic, Tactical, and Policy Models

This book describes mathematical models and systems analysis techniques applied to the study of insect pest, plant pathogens, and human diseases. The research programs of over 40 scientists from all over the world are compared and contrasted in detail to provide a state-of-the-art review on how such modeling can increase the effectiveness of more traditional ecological, biological, and chemical control methods. This is the first time such a synthesis has been attempted, and arises in part from a conference hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Papers from this event, plus additional solicited material, have been grouped by Professor Conway into three sections representing strategic, tactical, and policy decision models. An introduction and three linking chapters are provided to place these models in context. Discussing specific case histories in these mathematical terms and the consequent transfer of insights and methods will be of long-term interest to both professional and academic applied entomologists, plant pathologists, medical epidemiologists, applied ecologists, and systems analysts