11,921 research outputs found

    Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006, pp.1109-1186.

    Get PDF
    This chapter surveys work on dynamic heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in economics and finance. Emphasis is given to simple models that, at least to some extent, are tractable by analytic methods in combination with computational tools. Most of these models are behavioral models with boundedly rational agents using different heuristics or rule of thumb strategies that may not be perfect, but perform reasonably well. Typically these models are highly nonlinear, e.g. due to evolutionary switching between strategies, and exhibit a wide range of dynamical behavior ranging from a unique stable steady state to complex, chaotic dynamics. Aggregation of simple interactions at the micro level may generate sophisticated structure at the macro level. Simple HAMs can explain important observed stylized facts in financial time series, such as excess volatility, high trading volume, temporary bubbles and trend following, sudden crashes and mean reversion, clustered volatility and fat tails in the returns distribution.

    Is it Social Influence on Beliefs Under Ambiguity? A Possible Explanation for Volatility Clustering

    Get PDF
    Influencing and being influenced by others is the very essence of human behaviour. We put forward an exploratory asset-pricing model allowing for social influence on investor judgments under ambiguity. The time series of returns generated by our model displays volatility clustering, a puzzling stylised fact observed in financial markets. This suggests that social influence on investor judgments may be playing a role in generating volatility clustering.Social Influence, Knightian Uncertainty, Ambiguity, Volatility Clustering

    Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance

    Get PDF
    Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex evolutionary systems. Agents are boundedly rational and base their investment decisions upon market forecasting heuristics. Prices and beliefs about future prices co-evolve over time with mutual feedback. Strategy choice is driven by evolutionary selection, so that agents tend to adopt strategies that were successful in the past. Calibration of "simple complexity models" with heterogeneous expectations to real financial market data and laboratory experiments with human subjects are also discussed.

    Does social interaction destabilise financial markets?

    Get PDF
    With this paper, I propose a simple asset pricing model that accounts for the influence from social interaction. Investors are assumed to make up their mind about an asset's price based on a forecasting strategy and its past profitability as well as on the contemporaneous expectations of other market participants. Empirically analysing stocks in the DAX30 index, I provide evidence that social interaction rather destabilises financial markets. At least, it does not have a stabilising effect

    The Futility of Utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

    Get PDF
    Econometrics is based on the nonempiric notion of utility. Prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. Utility is usually treated by economists as a price potential, other times utility rates are treated as Lagrangians. Assumptions of integrability of Lagrangians and dynamics are implicitly and uncritically made. In particular, economists assume that price is the gradient of utility in equilibrium, but I show that price as the gradient of utility is an integrability condition for the Hamiltonian dynamics of an optimization problem in econometric control theory. One consequence is that, in a nonintegrable dynamical system, price cannot be expressed as a function of demand or supply variables. Another consequence is that utility maximization does not describe equiulibrium. I point out that the maximization of Gibbs entropy would describe equilibrium, if equilibrium could be achieved, but equilibrium does not describe real markets. To emphasize the inconsistency of the economists' notion of 'equilibrium', I discuss both deterministic and stochastic dynamics of excess demand and observe that Adam Smith's stabilizing hand is not to be found either in deterministic or stochastic dynamical models of markets, nor in the observed motions of asset prices. Evidence for stability of prices of assets in free markets simply has not been found.Comment: 46 pages. accepte

    Managing customer relationships through price and service quality

    Get PDF
    This paper examines the ways in which a service provider's policies on pricing and service level affect the size of its customer base and profitability. The analysis begins with the development of a customer behavior model that uses customer satisfaction and depth of relationship as mediators of the impact of price and service level on profitability. Based on this model of customer behavior, the system is analyzed as a queuing network from which the properties of the aggregate population's behavior are derived. The analysis reveals the counterintuitive result that a policy that involves a decrease in prices or an increase in service level may lead to a smaller customer base. However, this policy may also lead to higher profits. The novelty of this result lies in the explanation of the phenomenon: that when the customer base decreases due to a change in prices or service quality, companies may experience gains in profit that result not from a decrease in costs associated with serving fewer customers but from an increase in revenues resulting from the indirect effects of the lower prices or higher level of service on customer behavior. The application of optimization techniques to the model developed in this paper yields optimality conditions through which managers can assess the long-term profitability of their pricing and service-level policies.Customer relationship management; operations/marketing interface; two-part tariffs; service operations management; service quality;

    Asset price dynamics with small world interactions under hetereogeneous beliefs

    Get PDF
    We propose a simple model of a financial market populated with heterogeneous agents. The market represents a network with nodes symbolizing the agents and edges standing for connections between them, thus, embodying local interactions in the market. By local interactions we mean any kind of interplay between the decisions of the agents unaffected by the market mechanism and unrelated to the physical distance between the agents. Using the rewiring procedure we restructure a network from regular lattice to random graph by varying the probability of the agents to switch from one trading strategy to another. We study how the network structure influences the asset price dynamics. The results show that for some intermediate values of the probability to switch, corresponding to a small world network, the price dynamics become reminiscent to the real. While for the boundary values of the probability the dynamics lacks some typical features of the real financial markets.local interactions, networks, small world, heterogeneous beliefs, price dynamics, bifurcations, chaos

    The Futility of Utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

    Get PDF
    General Equilibrium Theory in econometrics is based on the vague notion of utility. Prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. Utility is sometimes treated like a potential, other times like a Lagrangian. Illegal assumptions of integrability of actions and dynamics are usually made. Economists usually assume that price is the gradient of utility in equilibrium, but I observe instead that price as the gradient of utility is an integrability condition for the Hamiltonian dynamics of an optimization problem. I discuss both deterministic and statistical descriptions of the dynamics of excess demand and observe that Adam Smith's stabilizing hand is not to be found either in deterministic or stochastic dynamical models of markets nor in the observed motions of asset prices. Evidence for stability of prices of assets in free markets has not been found.Utility; general equilibrium; nonintegrability; control dynamics; conservation laws; chaos; instability; supply-demand curves; nonequilibrium dynamics
    • ā€¦
    corecore