The Effect of Time Delay on Dynamical Behavior in an Ecoepidemiological Model

A delayed predator-prey model with disease in the prey is investigated. The conditions for the local stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium of the system are derived. The effect of the two different time delays on the dynamical behavior has been given. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical analysis. Finally, the main conclusions are drawn

Theoretical Study of Pest Control Using Stage Structured Natural Enemies with Maturation Delay: A Crop-Pest-Natural Enemy Model

In the natural world, there are many insect species whose individual members have a life history that takes them through two stages, immature and mature. Moreover, the rates of survival, development, and reproduction almost always depend on age, size, or development stage. Keeping this in mind, in this paper, a three species crop-pest-natural enemy food chain model with two stages for natural enemies is investigated. Using characteristic equations, a set of sufficient conditions for local asymptotic stability of all the feasible equilibria is obtained. Moreover, using approach as in (Beretta and Kuang, 2002), the possibility of the existence of a Hopf bifurcation for the interior equilibrium with respect to maturation delay is explored, which shows that the maturation delay plays an important role in the dynamical behavior of three species system. Also obtain some threshold values of maturation delay for the stability-switching of the particular system. In succession, using the normal form theory and center manifold argument, we derive the explicit formulas which determine the stability and direction of bifurcating periodic solutions. Finally, a numerical simulation for supporting the theoretical analysis is given.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figure

Controllability of an eco-epidemiological system with disease transmission delay: A theoretical study

This paper deals with the qualitative analysis of a disease transmission delay induced prey preda-tor system in which disease spreads among the predator species only. The growth of the preda-tors’ susceptible and infected subpopulations is assumed as modified Leslie–Gower type. Suffi-cient conditions for the persistence, permanence, existence and stability of equilibrium points are obtained. Global asymptotic stability of the system is investigated around the coexisting equilib-rium using a geometric approach. The existence of Hopf bifurcation phenomenon is also exam-ined with respect to some important parameters of the system. The criterion for disease a trans-mission delay the induced Hopf bifurcation phenomenon is obtained and subsequently, we use a normal form method and the center manifold theorem to examine the nature of the Hopf bifurca-tion. It is clearly observed that competition among predators can drive the system to a stable from an unstable state. Also the infection and competition among predator population enhance the availability of prey for harvesting when their values are high. Finally, some numerical simu-lations are carried out to illustrate the analytical results

Dynamics of prey–predator model with strong and weak Allee effect in the prey with gestation delay

This study proposes two prey–predator models with strong and weak Allee effects in prey population with Crowley–Martin functional response. Further, gestation delay of the predator population is introduced in both the models. We discussed the boundedness, local stability and Hopf-bifurcation of both nondelayed and delayed systems. The stability and direction of Hopfbifurcation is also analyzed by using Normal form theory and Center manifold theory. It is shown that species in the model with strong Allee effect become extinct beyond a threshold value of Allee parameter at low density of prey population, whereas species never become extinct in weak Allee effect if they are initially present. It is also shown that gestation delay is unable to avoiding the status of extinction. Lastly, numerical simulation is conducted to verify the theoretical findings.&nbsp

Advanced Nonlinear Dynamics of Population Biology and Epidemiology

abstract: Modern biology and epidemiology have become more and more driven by the need of mathematical models and theory to elucidate general phenomena arising from the complexity of interactions on the numerous spatial, temporal, and hierarchical scales at which biological systems operate and diseases spread. Epidemic modeling and study of disease spread such as gonorrhea, HIV/AIDS, BSE, foot and mouth disease, measles, and rubella have had an impact on public health policy around the world which includes the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Canada, and the United States. A wide variety of modeling approaches are involved in building up suitable models. Ordinary differential equation models, partial differential equation models, delay differential equation models, stochastic differential equation models, difference equation models, and nonautonomous models are examples of modeling approaches that are useful and capable of providing applicable strategies for the coexistence and conservation of endangered species, to prevent the overexploitation of natural resources, to control disease’s outbreak, and to make optimal dosing polices for the drug administration, and so forth.View the article as published at https://www.hindawi.com/journals/aaa/2014/214514

A Mathematical Study on the Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological Model in the Presence of Delay

In the present work a mathematical model of the prey-predator system with disease in the prey is proposed. The basic model is then modified by the introduction of time delay. The stability of the boundary and endemic equilibria are discussed. The stability and bifurcation analysis of the resulting delay differential equation model is studied and ranges of the delay inducing stability as well as the instability for the system are found. Using the normal form theory and center manifold argument, we derive the methodical formulae for determining the bifurcation direction and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solution. Some numerical simulations are carried out to explain our theoretical analysis

STOCHASTIC DELAY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH APPLICATIONS IN ECOLOGY AND EPIDEMICS

Mathematical modeling with delay differential equations (DDEs) is widely used for analysis and predictions in various areas of life sciences, such as population dynamics, epidemiology, immunology, physiology, and neural networks. The memory or time-delays, in these models, are related to the duration of certain hidden processes like the stages of the life cycle, the time between infection of a cell and the production of new viruses, the duration of the infectious period, the immune period, and so on. In ordinary differential equations (ODEs), the unknown state and its derivatives are evaluated at the same time instant. In DDEs, however, the evolution of the system at a certain time instant depends on the past history/memory. Introduction of such time-delays in a differential model significantly improves the dynamics of the model and enriches the complexity of the system. Moreover, natural phenomena counter an environmental noise and usually do not follow deterministic laws strictly but oscillate randomly about some average values, so that the population density never attains a fixed value with the advancement of time. Accordingly, stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) models play a prominent role in many application areas including biology, epidemiology and population dynamics, mostly because they can offer a more sophisticated insight through physical phenomena than their deterministic counterparts do. The SDDEs can be regarded as a generalization of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and DDEs.This dissertation, consists of eight Chapters, is concerned with qualitative and quantitative features of deterministic and stochastic delay differential equations with applications in ecology and epidemics. The local and global stabilities of the steady states and Hopf bifurcations with respect of interesting parameters of such models are investigated. The impact of incorporating time-delays and random noise in such class of differential equations for different types of predator-prey systems and infectious diseases is studied. Numerical simulations, using suitable and reliable numerical schemes, are provided to show the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.Chapter 1 provides a brief overview about the topic and shows significance of the study. Chapter 2, is devoted to investigate the qualitative behaviours (through local and global stability of the steady states) of DDEs with predator-prey systems in case of hunting cooperation on predators. Chapter 3 deals with the dynamics of DDEs, of multiple time-delays, of two-prey one-predator system, where the growth of both preys populations subject to Allee effects, with a direct competition between the two-prey species having a common predator. A Lyapunov functional is deducted to investigate the global stability of positive interior equilibrium. Chapter 4, studies the dynamics of stochastic DDEs for predator-prey system with hunting cooperation in predators. Existence and uniqueness of global positive solution and stochastically ultimate boundedness are investigated. Some sufficient conditions for persistence and extinction, using Lyapunov functional, are obtained. Chapter 5 is devoted to investigate Stochastic DDEs of three-species predator prey system with cooperation among prey species. Sufficient conditions of existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solution to the model are established, by constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional. Chapter 6 deals with stochastic epidemic SIRC model with time-delay for spread of COVID-19 among population. The basic reproduction number ℛs0 for the stochastic model which is smaller than ℛ0 of the corresponding deterministic model is deduced. Sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution, using the stochastic Lyapunov functional, and conditions for the extinction of the disease are obtained. In Chapter 7, some numerical schemes for SDDEs are discussed. Convergence and consistency of such schemes are investigated. Chapter 8 summaries the main finding and future directions of research. The main findings, theoretically and numerically, show that time-delays and random noise have a significant impact in the dynamics of ecological and biological systems. They also have an important role in ecological balance and environmental stability of living organisms. A small scale of white noise can promote the survival of population; While large noises can lead to extinction of the population, this would not happen in the deterministic systems without noises. Also, white noise plays an important part in controlling the spread of the disease; When the white noise is relatively large, the infectious diseases will become extinct; Re-infection and periodic outbreaks can also occur due to the time-delay in the transmission terms

Effect of Prey Refuge and Harvesting on Dynamics of Eco-epidemiological Model with Holling Type III

In this research, we formulate and analyze an eco-epidemiology model of the modified Leslie-Gower model with Holling type III by incorporating prey refuge and harvesting. In the model, we find at most six equilibrium where three equilibrium points are unstable and three equilibrium points are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, we find an interesting phenomenon, namely our model undergoes Hopf bifurcation at the interior equilibrium point by selecting refuge as the bifurcation parameter. Moreover, we also conclude that the stability of all populations occurs faster when the harvesting rate increases.  In the end, several numerical solutions are presented to check the analytical results