1,630 research outputs found
Surrogate time series
Before we apply nonlinear techniques, for example those inspired by chaos
theory, to dynamical phenomena occurring in nature, it is necessary to first
ask if the use of such advanced techniques is justified "by the data". While
many processes in nature seem very unlikely a priori to be linear, the possible
nonlinear nature might not be evident in specific aspects of their dynamics.
The method of surrogate data has become a very popular tool to address such a
question. However, while it was meant to provide a statistically rigorous,
foolproof framework, some limitations and caveats have shown up in its
practical use. In this paper, recent efforts to understand the caveats, avoid
the pitfalls, and to overcome some of the limitations, are reviewed and
augmented by new material. In particular, we will discuss specific as well as
more general approaches to constrained randomisation, providing a full range of
examples. New algorithms will be introduced for unevenly sampled and
multivariate data and for surrogate spike trains. The main limitation, which
lies in the interpretability of the test results, will be illustrated through
instructive case studies. We will also discuss some implementational aspects of
the realisation of these methods in the TISEAN
(http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de/~tisean) software package.Comment: 28 pages, 23 figures, software at
http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de/~tisea
Quasi maximum likelihood estimation for strongly mixing state space models and multivariate L\'evy-driven CARMA processes
We consider quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for general
non-Gaussian discrete-ime linear state space models and equidistantly observed
multivariate L\'evy-driven continuoustime autoregressive moving average
(MCARMA) processes. In the discrete-time setting, we prove strong consistency
and asymptotic normality of the QML estimator under standard moment assumptions
and a strong-mixing condition on the output process of the state space model.
In the second part of the paper, we investigate probabilistic and analytical
properties of equidistantly sampled continuous-time state space models and
apply our results from the discrete-time setting to derive the asymptotic
properties of the QML estimator of discretely recorded MCARMA processes. Under
natural identifiability conditions, the estimators are again consistent and
asymptotically normally distributed for any sampling frequency. We also
demonstrate the practical applicability of our method through a simulation
study and a data example from econometrics
Random sampling of long-memory stationary processe
This paper investigates the second order properties of a stationary process
after random sampling. While a short memory process gives always rise to a
short memory one, we prove that long-memory can disappear when the sampling law
has heavy enough tails. We prove that under rather general conditions the
existence of the spectral density is preserved by random sampling. We also
investigate the effects of deterministic sampling on seasonal long-memory
Relative entropy minimizing noisy non-linear neural network to approximate stochastic processes
A method is provided for designing and training noise-driven recurrent neural
networks as models of stochastic processes. The method unifies and generalizes
two known separate modeling approaches, Echo State Networks (ESN) and Linear
Inverse Modeling (LIM), under the common principle of relative entropy
minimization. The power of the new method is demonstrated on a stochastic
approximation of the El Nino phenomenon studied in climate research
A simple method for detecting chaos in nature
Chaos, or exponential sensitivity to small perturbations, appears everywhere
in nature. Moreover, chaos is predicted to play diverse functional roles in
living systems. A method for detecting chaos from empirical measurements should
therefore be a key component of the biologist's toolkit. But, classic
chaos-detection tools are highly sensitive to measurement noise and break down
for common edge cases, making it difficult to detect chaos in domains, like
biology, where measurements are noisy. However, newer tools promise to overcome
these limitations. Here, we combine several such tools into an automated
processing pipeline, and show that our pipeline can detect the presence (or
absence) of chaos in noisy recordings, even for difficult edge cases. As a
first-pass application of our pipeline, we show that heart rate variability is
not chaotic as some have proposed, and instead reflects a stochastic process in
both health and disease. Our tool is easy-to-use and freely available
Telling cause from effect in deterministic linear dynamical systems
Inferring a cause from its effect using observed time series data is a major
challenge in natural and social sciences. Assuming the effect is generated by
the cause trough a linear system, we propose a new approach based on the
hypothesis that nature chooses the "cause" and the "mechanism that generates
the effect from the cause" independent of each other. We therefore postulate
that the power spectrum of the time series being the cause is uncorrelated with
the square of the transfer function of the linear filter generating the effect.
While most causal discovery methods for time series mainly rely on the noise,
our method relies on asymmetries of the power spectral density properties that
can be exploited even in the context of deterministic systems. We describe
mathematical assumptions in a deterministic model under which the causal
direction is identifiable with this approach. We also discuss the method's
performance under the additive noise model and its relationship to Granger
causality. Experiments show encouraging results on synthetic as well as
real-world data. Overall, this suggests that the postulate of Independence of
Cause and Mechanism is a promising principle for causal inference on empirical
time series.Comment: This article is under review for a peer-reviewed conferenc
- …