Spectral Simplicity of Apparent Complexity, Part I: The Nondiagonalizable Metadynamics of Prediction

Virtually all questions that one can ask about the behavioral and structural complexity of a stochastic process reduce to a linear algebraic framing of a time evolution governed by an appropriate hidden-Markov process generator. Each type of question---correlation, predictability, predictive cost, observer synchronization, and the like---induces a distinct generator class. Answers are then functions of the class-appropriate transition dynamic. Unfortunately, these dynamics are generically nonnormal, nondiagonalizable, singular, and so on. Tractably analyzing these dynamics relies on adapting the recently introduced meromorphic functional calculus, which specifies the spectral decomposition of functions of nondiagonalizable linear operators, even when the function poles and zeros coincide with the operator's spectrum. Along the way, we establish special properties of the projection operators that demonstrate how they capture the organization of subprocesses within a complex system. Circumventing the spurious infinities of alternative calculi, this leads in the sequel, Part II, to the first closed-form expressions for complexity measures, couched either in terms of the Drazin inverse (negative-one power of a singular operator) or the eigenvalues and projection operators of the appropriate transition dynamic.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables; current version always at http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/sdscpt1.ht

Graph-based Semi-Supervised & Active Learning for Edge Flows

We present a graph-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) method for learning edge flows defined on a graph. Specifically, given flow measurements on a subset of edges, we want to predict the flows on the remaining edges. To this end, we develop a computational framework that imposes certain constraints on the overall flows, such as (approximate) flow conservation. These constraints render our approach different from classical graph-based SSL for vertex labels, which posits that tightly connected nodes share similar labels and leverages the graph structure accordingly to extrapolate from a few vertex labels to the unlabeled vertices. We derive bounds for our method's reconstruction error and demonstrate its strong performance on synthetic and real-world flow networks from transportation, physical infrastructure, and the Web. Furthermore, we provide two active learning algorithms for selecting informative edges on which to measure flow, which has applications for optimal sensor deployment. The first strategy selects edges to minimize the reconstruction error bound and works well on flows that are approximately divergence-free. The second approach clusters the graph and selects bottleneck edges that cross cluster-boundaries, which works well on flows with global trends

Active Semi-Supervised Learning Using Sampling Theory for Graph Signals

We consider the problem of offline, pool-based active semi-supervised learning on graphs. This problem is important when the labeled data is scarce and expensive whereas unlabeled data is easily available. The data points are represented by the vertices of an undirected graph with the similarity between them captured by the edge weights. Given a target number of nodes to label, the goal is to choose those nodes that are most informative and then predict the unknown labels. We propose a novel framework for this problem based on our recent results on sampling theory for graph signals. A graph signal is a real-valued function defined on each node of the graph. A notion of frequency for such signals can be defined using the spectrum of the graph Laplacian matrix. The sampling theory for graph signals aims to extend the traditional Nyquist-Shannon sampling theory by allowing us to identify the class of graph signals that can be reconstructed from their values on a subset of vertices. This approach allows us to define a criterion for active learning based on sampling set selection which aims at maximizing the frequency of the signals that can be reconstructed from their samples on the set. Experiments show the effectiveness of our method.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, To appear in KDD'1

Momentum Strategies with L1 Filter

In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of straight trends or steps. This penalty condition, which determines the number of breaks, is implemented in a constrained least square problem and is represented by a regularization parameter ? which is estimated by a cross-validation procedure. Financial time series are usually characterized by a long-term trend (called the global trend) and some short-term trends (which are named local trends). A combination of these two time scales can form a simple model describing the process of a global trend process with some mean-reverting properties. Explicit applications to momentum strategies are also discussed in detail with appropriate uses of the trend configurations.Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures. Submitted to The Journal of Investment Strategies, reference code: JOIS140227T

Evaluating Overfit and Underfit in Models of Network Community Structure

A common data mining task on networks is community detection, which seeks an unsupervised decomposition of a network into structural groups based on statistical regularities in the network's connectivity. Although many methods exist, the No Free Lunch theorem for community detection implies that each makes some kind of tradeoff, and no algorithm can be optimal on all inputs. Thus, different algorithms will over or underfit on different inputs, finding more, fewer, or just different communities than is optimal, and evaluation methods that use a metadata partition as a ground truth will produce misleading conclusions about general accuracy. Here, we present a broad evaluation of over and underfitting in community detection, comparing the behavior of 16 state-of-the-art community detection algorithms on a novel and structurally diverse corpus of 406 real-world networks. We find that (i) algorithms vary widely both in the number of communities they find and in their corresponding composition, given the same input, (ii) algorithms can be clustered into distinct high-level groups based on similarities of their outputs on real-world networks, and (iii) these differences induce wide variation in accuracy on link prediction and link description tasks. We introduce a new diagnostic for evaluating overfitting and underfitting in practice, and use it to roughly divide community detection methods into general and specialized learning algorithms. Across methods and inputs, Bayesian techniques based on the stochastic block model and a minimum description length approach to regularization represent the best general learning approach, but can be outperformed under specific circumstances. These results introduce both a theoretically principled approach to evaluate over and underfitting in models of network community structure and a realistic benchmark by which new methods may be evaluated and compared.Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, 3 table

Spectral Simplicity of Apparent Complexity, Part II: Exact Complexities and Complexity Spectra

The meromorphic functional calculus developed in Part I overcomes the nondiagonalizability of linear operators that arises often in the temporal evolution of complex systems and is generic to the metadynamics of predicting their behavior. Using the resulting spectral decomposition, we derive closed-form expressions for correlation functions, finite-length Shannon entropy-rate approximates, asymptotic entropy rate, excess entropy, transient information, transient and asymptotic state uncertainty, and synchronization information of stochastic processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models. This introduces analytical tractability to investigating information processing in discrete-event stochastic processes, symbolic dynamics, and chaotic dynamical systems. Comparisons reveal mathematical similarities between complexity measures originally thought to capture distinct informational and computational properties. We also introduce a new kind of spectral analysis via coronal spectrograms and the frequency-dependent spectra of past-future mutual information. We analyze a number of examples to illustrate the methods, emphasizing processes with multivariate dependencies beyond pairwise correlation. An appendix presents spectral decomposition calculations for one example in full detail.Comment: 27 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables; most recent version at http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/sdscpt2.ht