Second-order Quantile Methods for Experts and Combinatorial Games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles

Hypergraph conditions for the solvability of the ergodic equation for zero-sum games

The ergodic equation is a basic tool in the study of mean-payoff stochastic games. Its solvability entails that the mean payoff is independent of the initial state. Moreover, optimal stationary strategies are readily obtained from its solution. In this paper, we give a general sufficient condition for the solvability of the ergodic equation, for a game with finite state space but arbitrary action spaces. This condition involves a pair of directed hypergraphs depending only on the ``growth at infinity'' of the Shapley operator of the game. This refines a recent result of the authors which only applied to games with bounded payments, as well as earlier nonlinear fixed point results for order preserving maps, involving graph conditions.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Proc. 54th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC 2015