Remote Sensing of Land Surface Phenology

Land surface phenology (LSP) uses remote sensing to monitor seasonal dynamics in vegetated land surfaces and retrieve phenological metrics (transition dates, rate of change, annual integrals, etc.). LSP has developed rapidly in the last few decades. Both regional and global LSP products have been routinely generated and play prominent roles in modeling crop yield, ecological surveillance, identifying invasive species, modeling the terrestrial biosphere, and assessing impacts on urban and natural ecosystems. Recent advances in field and spaceborne sensor technologies, as well as data fusion techniques, have enabled novel LSP retrieval algorithms that refine retrievals at even higher spatiotemporal resolutions, providing new insights into ecosystem dynamics. Meanwhile, rigorous assessment of the uncertainties in LSP retrievals is ongoing, and efforts to reduce these uncertainties represent an active research area. Open source software and hardware are in development, and have greatly facilitated the use of LSP metrics by scientists outside the remote sensing community. This reprint covers the latest developments in sensor technologies, LSP retrieval algorithms and validation strategies, and the use of LSP products in a variety of fields. It aims to summarize the ongoing diverse LSP developments and boost discussions on future research prospects

Linkages between Atmospheric Circulation, Weather, Climate, Land Cover and Social Dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important landmass that plays a significant role in both regional and global climates. In recent decades, the TP has undergone significant changes due to climate and human activities. Since the 1980s anthropogenic activities, such as the stocking of livestock, land cover change, permafrost degradation, urbanization, highway construction, deforestation and desertification, and unsustainable land management practices, have greatly increased over the TP. As a result, grasslands have undergone rapid degradation and have altered the land surface which in turn has altered the exchange of heat and moisture properties between land and the atmosphere. But gaps still exist in our knowledge of land-atmosphere interactions in the TP and their impacts on weather and climate around the TP, making it difficult to understand the complete energy and water cycles over the region. Moreover, human, and ecological systems are interlinked, and the drivers of change include biophysical, economic, political, social, and cultural elements that operate at different temporal and spatial scales. Current studies do not holistically reflect the complex social-ecological dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau. To increase our understanding of this coupled human-natural system, there is a need for an integrated approach to rendering visible the deep interconnections between the biophysical and social systems of the TP. There is a need for an integrative framework to study the impacts of sedentary and individualized production systems on the health and livelihoods of local communities in the context of land degradation and climate change. To do so, there is a need to understand better the spatial variability and landscape patterns in grassland degradation across the TP. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation is to contribute to our understanding of the changes over the land surface and how these changes impact the plateau\u27s weather, climate, and social dynamics. This dissertation is structured as three interrelated manuscripts, which each explore specific research questions relating to this larger goal. These manuscripts constitute the three primary papers of this dissertation. The first paper documents the significant association of surface energy flux with vegetation cover, as measured by satellite based AVHRR GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, during the early growing season of May in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, a 1°K increase in the temperature at the 500 hPa level was observed. Based on the identified positive effects of vegetation on the temperature associated with decreased NDVI in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau, I propose a positive energy process for land-atmosphere associations. In the second paper, an increase in Landsat-derived NDVI, i.e., a greening, is identified within the TP, especially during 1990 to 2018 and 2000 to 2018 time periods. Larger median growing season NDVI change values were observed for the Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grassland regions, in comparison to the other three regions studied. Land degradation is prominent in the lower and intermediate hillslope positions in comparison to the higher relative topographic positions, and change is more pronounced in the eastern Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grasslands. Geomorphons were found to be an effective spatial unit for analysis of hillslope change patterns. Through the extensive literature review presented in third paper, this dissertation recommends using critical physical geography (CPG) to study environmental and social issues in the TP. The conceptual model proposed provides a framework for analysis of the dominant controls, feedback, and interactions between natural, human, socioeconomic, and governance activities, allowing researchers to untangle climate change, land degradation, and vulnerability in the Tibetan Plateau. CPG will further help improve our understanding of the exposure of local people to climate and socio-economic and political change and help policy makers devise appropriate strategies to combat future grassland degradation and to improve the lives and strengthen livelihoods of the inhabitants of the TP

Climatic and geologic controls on suspended sediment flux in the Sutlej River Valley, western Himalaya

The sediment flux through Himalayan rivers directly impacts water quality and is important for sustaining agriculture as well as maintaining drinking-water and hydropower generation. Despite the recent increase in demand for these resources, little is known about the triggers and sources of extreme sediment flux events, which lower water quality and account for extensive hydropower reservoir filling and turbine abrasion. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal trends in suspended sediment flux based on daily data during the past decade (2001–2009) from four sites along the Sutlej River and from four of its main tributaries. In conjunction with satellite data depicting rainfall and snow cover, air temperature and earthquake records, and field observations, we infer climatic and geologic controls of peak suspended sediment concentration (SSC) events. Our study identifies three key findings: First, peak SSC events (≥ 99th SSC percentile) coincide frequently (57–80%) with heavy rainstorms and account for about 30% of the suspended sediment flux in the semi-arid to arid interior of the orogen. Second, we observe an increase of suspended sediment flux from the Tibetan Plateau to the Himalayan Front at mean annual timescales. This sediment-flux gradient suggests that averaged, modern erosion in the western Himalaya is most pronounced at frontal regions, which are characterized by high monsoonal rainfall and thick soil cover. Third, in seven of eight catchments, we find an anticlockwise hysteresis loop of annual sediment flux variations with respect to river discharge, which appears to be related to enhanced glacial sediment evacuation during late summer. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of unconsolidated sediments in the high-elevation sector that can easily be mobilized by hydrometeorological events and higher glacial-meltwater contributions. In future climate change scenarios, including continuous glacial retreat and more frequent monsoonal rainstorms across the Himalaya, we expect an increase in peak SSC events, which will decrease the water quality and impact hydropower generation

Modelling climate change impacts on the Brahmaputra streamflow resulting from change in snowpack attributes

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a critical role in modulating the hydrology for a number of prominent river basins. Despite its importance, changes in hydrological processes of the region are not closely monitored. It is now well known that rising temperatures are impacting the water cycle in the Plateau. The Upper Brahmaputra Basin, originating from the TP, provides fresh water for a large population downstream and its likely change in reference to future water availability is the focus of this thesis. One possible way to ascertain and project such changes is to formulate hydrological models and use simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) as inputs. This thesis seeks to investigate climate change impacts on snowpack and streamflow as its two key aims. The first part of the thesis explores snowpack changes in terms of within-year accumulation and depletion across the Northern Hemisphere using measured spatially distributed snow water equivalent (SWE) information. Following this, a catchment-scale investigation of uncertainties in precipitation downscaling across the TP is then presented. Such uncertainties affect future projections of precipitation, which in turn influence streamflow simulations. Next, an evaluation of GCM and RCM-derived SWE is reported, which reveals that both GCM and RCM products suffer from significant uncertainties and biases. Such uncertainties and biases in SWE and other climatic variables are reduced significantly using a multivariate bias correction approach. In the second part of the thesis, a conceptual hydrological model is proposed to assess the impact of temperature-driven changes in snowpack attributes on the streamflow, considering the lack of data available for the upper Brahmaputra basin. The model simulates snow cover fraction, SWE and streamflow using temperature and precipitation information. The results show that SWE is likely to decrease in the near future (2041 to 2064) as well as in the far future (2071 to 2094), which will impact streamflow, and hence water availability for a significant portion of the global population that depends on the water supplied by the Brahmaputra as well as the other major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau

Fire facilitates warming-induced upward shifts of alpine treelines by altering interspecific interactions

Biotic interactions between trees and other plants may modulate the responses of alpine treelines to climate. Moderate disturbances could, therefore, accelerate upward shifts of alpine treelines as the climate warms by reducing the coverage of competitor plants and resetting interspecific interactions. Larch (Larix potaninii var. macrocarpa) treelines disturbed by fire on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are good locales for testing this hypothesis. We characterized treelines in five large rectangular plots spanning undisturbed and fire-disturbed fir (Abies georgei) and larch treelines. The fires in the 1960s caused gaps in the reconstructed age structures of the larches during the 1970s but did not lead to downslope shifts in treeline position. Recruitment has instead increased since the 1980s within the disturbed larch treelines, with treelines shifting upward by 11-44 m. In contrast, the undisturbed larch and fir treeline positions remained mostly unchanged. We hypothesize that upslope shifts of alpine treelines are likely a consequence of climatic warming, but fire disturbances can accelerate these dynamics by altering interspecific interactions

Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Lake Ice Classification from Optical Remote Sensing Data

The topic of lake ice cover mapping from satellite remote sensing data has gained interest in recent years since it allows the extent of lake ice and the dynamics of ice phenology over large areas to be monitored. Mapping lake ice extent can record the loss of the perennial ice cover for lakes located in the High Arctic. Moreover, ice phenology dates, retrieved from lake ice maps, are useful for assessing long-term trends and variability in climate, particularly due to their sensitivity to changes in near-surface air temperature. However, existing knowledge-driven (threshold-based) retrieval algorithms for lake ice-water classification that use top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance products do not perform well under the condition of large solar zenith angles, resulting in low TOA reflectance. Machine learning (ML) techniques have received considerable attention in the remote sensing field for the past several decades, but they have not yet been applied in lake ice classification from optical remote sensing imagery. Therefore, this research has evaluated the capability of ML classifiers to enhance lake ice mapping using multispectral optical remote sensing data (MODIS L1B (TOA) product). Chapter 3, the main manuscript of this thesis, presents an investigation of four ML classifiers (i.e. multinomial logistic regression, MLR; support vector machine, SVM; random forest, RF; gradient boosting trees, GBT) in lake ice classification. Results are reported using 17 lakes located in the Northern Hemisphere, which represent different characteristics regarding area, altitude, freezing frequency, and ice cover duration. According to the overall accuracy assessment using a random k-fold cross-validation (k = 100), all ML classifiers were able to produce classification accuracies above 94%, and RF and GBT provided above 98% classification accuracies. Moreover, the RF and GBT algorithms provided a more visually accurate depiction of lake ice cover under challenging conditions (i.e., high solar zenith angles, black ice, and thin cloud cover). The two tree-based classifiers were found to provide the most robust spatial transferability over the 17 lakes and performed consistently well across three ice seasons, better than the other classifiers. Moreover, RF was insensitive to the choice of the hyperparameters compared to the other three classifiers. The results demonstrate that RF and GBT provide a great potential to map accurately lake ice cover globally over a long time-series. Additionally, a case study applying a convolution neural network (CNN) model for ice classification in Great Slave Lake, Canada is presented in Appendix A. Eighteen images acquired during the the ice season of 2009-2010 were used in this study. The proposed CNN produced a 98.03% accuracy with the testing dataset; however, the accuracy dropped to 90.13% using an independent (out-of-sample) validation dataset. Results show the powerful learning performance of the proposed CNN with the testing data accuracy obtained. At the same time, the accuracy reduction of the validation dataset indicates the overfitting behavior of the proposed model. A follow-up investigation would be needed to improve its performance. This thesis investigated the capability of ML algorithms (both pixel-based and spatial-based) in lake ice classification from the MODIS L1B product. Overall, ML techniques showed promising performances for lake ice cover mapping from the optical remote sensing data. The tree-based classifiers (pixel-based) exhibited the potential to produce accurate lake ice classification at a large-scale over long time-series. In addition, more work would be of benefit for improving the application of CNN in lake ice cover mapping from optical remote sensing imagery

Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 2000-2016 at 1 km²scale

Permafrost is a key element of the cryosphere and an essential climate variable in the Global Climate Observing System. There is no remote-sensing method available to reliably monitor the permafrost thermal state. To estimate permafrost distribution at a hemispheric scale, we employ an equilibrium state model for the temperature at the top of the permafrost (TTOP model) for the 2000–2016 period, driven by remotely-sensed land surface temperatures, down-scaled ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data, tundra wetness classes and landcover map from the ESA Landcover Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project. Subgrid variability of ground temperatures due to snow and landcover variability is represented in the model using subpixel statistics. The results are validated against borehole measurements and reviewed regionally. The accuracy of the modelled mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the top of the permafrost is ±2 °C when compared to permafrost borehole data. The modelled permafrost area (MAGT 0) is around 21 × 106 km2 (22% of exposed land area), which is approximately 2 × 106 km2 less than estimated previously. Detailed comparisons at a regional scale show that the model performs well in sparsely vegetated tundra regions and mountains, but is less accurate in densely vegetated boreal spruce and larch forests