802 research outputs found

    Spatio-temporal learning with the online finite and infinite echo-state Gaussian processes

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    Successful biological systems adapt to change. In this paper, we are principally concerned with adaptive systems that operate in environments where data arrives sequentially and is multivariate in nature, for example, sensory streams in robotic systems. We contribute two reservoir inspired methods: 1) the online echostate Gaussian process (OESGP) and 2) its infinite variant, the online infinite echostate Gaussian process (OIESGP) Both algorithms are iterative fixed-budget methods that learn from noisy time series. In particular, the OESGP combines the echo-state network with Bayesian online learning for Gaussian processes. Extending this to infinite reservoirs yields the OIESGP, which uses a novel recursive kernel with automatic relevance determination that enables spatial and temporal feature weighting. When fused with stochastic natural gradient descent, the kernel hyperparameters are iteratively adapted to better model the target system. Furthermore, insights into the underlying system can be gleamed from inspection of the resulting hyperparameters. Experiments on noisy benchmark problems (one-step prediction and system identification) demonstrate that our methods yield high accuracies relative to state-of-the-art methods, and standard kernels with sliding windows, particularly on problems with irrelevant dimensions. In addition, we describe two case studies in robotic learning-by-demonstration involving the Nao humanoid robot and the Assistive Robot Transport for Youngsters (ARTY) smart wheelchair

    Online Spatio-Temporal Gaussian Process Experts with Application to Tactile Classification

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    Estimation of the mixing kernel and the disturbance covariance in IDE-based spatiotemporal systems

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    The integro-difference equation (IDE) is an increasingly popular mathematical model of spatiotemporal processes, such as brain dynamics, weather systems, and disease spread. We present an efficient approach for system identification based on correlation techniques for linear temporal systems that extended to spatiotemporal IDE-based models. The method is derived from the average (over time) spatial correlations of observations to calculate closed-form estimates of the spatial mixing kernel and the disturbance covariance function. Synthetic data are used to demonstrate the performance of the estimation algorithm

    Tasks Makyth Models: Machine Learning Assisted Surrogates for Tipping Points

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    We present a machine learning (ML)-assisted framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale modeling, for (a) detecting tipping points in the emergent behavior of complex systems, and (b) characterizing probabilities of rare events (here, catastrophic shifts) near them. Our illustrative example is an event-driven, stochastic agent-based model (ABM) describing the mimetic behavior of traders in a simple financial market. Given high-dimensional spatiotemporal data -- generated by the stochastic ABM -- we construct reduced-order models for the emergent dynamics at different scales: (a) mesoscopic Integro-Partial Differential Equations (IPDEs); and (b) mean-field-type Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) embedded in a low-dimensional latent space, targeted to the neighborhood of the tipping point. We contrast the uses of the different models and the effort involved in learning them.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, 6 table

    Echo state model of non-Markovian reinforcement learning, An

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    Department Head: Dale H. Grit.2008 Spring.Includes bibliographical references (pages 137-142).There exists a growing need for intelligent, autonomous control strategies that operate in real-world domains. Theoretically the state-action space must exhibit the Markov property in order for reinforcement learning to be applicable. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that reinforcement learning also applies to domains where the state-action space is approximately Markovian, a requirement for the overwhelming majority of real-world domains. These domains, termed non-Markovian reinforcement learning domains, raise a unique set of practical challenges. The reconstruction dimension required to approximate a Markovian state-space is unknown a priori and can potentially be large. Further, spatial complexity of local function approximation of the reinforcement learning domain grows exponentially with the reconstruction dimension. Parameterized dynamic systems alleviate both embedding length and state-space dimensionality concerns by reconstructing an approximate Markovian state-space via a compact, recurrent representation. Yet this representation extracts a cost; modeling reinforcement learning domains via adaptive, parameterized dynamic systems is characterized by instability, slow-convergence, and high computational or spatial training complexity. The objectives of this research are to demonstrate a stable, convergent, accurate, and scalable model of non-Markovian reinforcement learning domains. These objectives are fulfilled via fixed point analysis of the dynamics underlying the reinforcement learning domain and the Echo State Network, a class of parameterized dynamic system. Understanding models of non-Markovian reinforcement learning domains requires understanding the interactions between learning domains and their models. Fixed point analysis of the Mountain Car Problem reinforcement learning domain, for both local and nonlocal function approximations, suggests a close relationship between the locality of the approximation and the number and severity of bifurcations of the fixed point structure. This research suggests the likely cause of this relationship: reinforcement learning domains exist within a dynamic feature space in which trajectories are analogous to states. The fixed point structure maps dynamic space onto state-space. This explanation suggests two testable hypotheses. Reinforcement learning is sensitive to state-space locality because states cluster as trajectories in time rather than space. Second, models using trajectory-based features should exhibit good modeling performance and few changes in fixed point structure. Analysis of performance of lookup table, feedforward neural network, and Echo State Network (ESN) on the Mountain Car Problem reinforcement learning domain confirm these hypotheses. The ESN is a large, sparse, randomly-generated, unadapted recurrent neural network, which adapts a linear projection of the target domain onto the hidden layer. ESN modeling results on reinforcement learning domains show it achieves performance comparable to lookup table and neural network architectures on the Mountain Car Problem with minimal changes to fixed point structure. Also, the ESN achieves lookup table caliber performance when modeling Acrobot, a four-dimensional control problem, but is less successful modeling the lower dimensional Modified Mountain Car Problem. These performance discrepancies are attributed to the ESN’s excellent ability to represent complex short term dynamics, and its inability to consolidate long temporal dependencies into a static memory. Without memory consolidation, reinforcement learning domains exhibiting attractors with multiple dynamic scales are unlikely to be well-modeled via ESN. To mediate this problem, a simple ESN memory consolidation method is presented and tested for stationary dynamic systems. These results indicate the potential to improve modeling performance in reinforcement learning domains via memory consolidation
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