Road distance and travel time for spatial urban modelling

Interactions within and between urban environments include the price of houses, the flow of traffic and the intensity of noise pollution, which can all be restricted by various physical, regulatory and customary barriers. Examples of such restrictions include buildings, one-way systems and pedestrian crossings. These constrictive features create challenges for predictive modelling in urban space, which are not fully captured when proximity-based models rely on the typically used Euclidean (straight line) distance metric. Over the course of this thesis, I ask three key questions in an attempt to identify how to improve spatial models in restricted urban areas. These are: (1) which distance function best models real world spatial interactions in an urban setting? (2) when, if ever, are non-Euclidean distance functions valid for urban spatial models? and (3) what is the best way to estimate the generalisation performance of urban models utilising spatial data? This thesis answers each of these questions through three contributions supporting the interdisciplinary domain of Urban Sciences. These contributions are: (1) the provision of an improved approximation of road distance and travel time networks to model urban spatial interactions; (2) the approximation of valid distance metrics from non-Euclidean inputs for improved spatial predictions and (3) the presentation of a road distance and travel time cross-validation metric to improve the estimation of urban model generalisation. Each of these contributions provide improvements against the current state-of-the-art. Throughout, all experiments utilise real world datasets in England and Wales, such datasets contain information on restricted roads, travel times, house sales and traffic counts. With these datasets, I display a number of case studies which show up to a 32% improved model accuracy against Euclidean distances and in some cases, a 90% improvement for the estimation of model generalisation performance. Combined, the contributions improve the way that proximity-based urban models perform and also provides a more accurate estimate of generalisation performance for predictive models in urban space. The main implication of these contributions to Urban Science is the ability to better model the challenges within a city based on how they interact with themselves and each other using an improved function of urban mobility, compared with the current state-of-the-art. Such challenges may include selecting the optimal locations for emergency services, identifying the causes of traffic incidents or estimating the density of air pollution. Additionally, the key implication of this research on geostatistics is that it provides the motivation and means of undertaking non-Euclidean based research for non-urban applications, for example predicting with alternative, non-road based, mobility patterns such as migrating animals, rivers and coast lines. Finally, the implication of my research to the real estate industry is significant, in which one can now improve the accuracy of the industry's state-of-the-art nationwide house price predictor, whilst also being able to more appropriately present their accuracy estimates for robustness

LIPIcs, Volume 277, GIScience 2023, Complete Volume

LIPIcs, Volume 277, GIScience 2023, Complete Volum

Short-Term Traffic Prediction Based on Genetic Algorithm Improved Neural Network

This paper takes the time series of short-term traffic flow as research object. The delay time and embedding dimension are calculated by C-C algorithm, and the chaotic characteristics of the time series are verified by small data sets method.Then based on the neural network prediction model and the chaotic phase space reconstruction theory, the network topology is determined, and the prediction is conducted by the wavelet neural network and RBF neural network using Lan-Hai expressway experimental data. The results show that the prediction effect of RBF neural network is better. Due to the poor stability of the network caused by the initial parameters randomness, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the initial parameters. The results show that the prediction error of the optimized wavelet neural network or RBF neural network is reduced by more than 10%, and prediction accuracy of the latter is better

Indirect impact of landslide hazards on transportation infrastructure

This thesis examines the indirect impact of natural hazards on infrastructure networks. It addresses several key themes and issues for hazard assessment, network modelling and risk assessment using the case study of landslides impacting the national road network in Scotland, United Kingdom. The research follows four distinct stages. First, a landslide susceptibility model is developed using a database of landslide occurrences, spatial data sets and logistic regression. The model outputs indicate the terrain characteristics that are associated with increased landslide potential, including critical slope angles and south westerly aspects associated with increased rates of solar irradiance and precipitation. The results identify the hillslopes and road segments that are most prone to disruption by landslides and these indicate that 40 % (1,700 / 4,300 km) of Scotland s motorways and arterial roads (i.e. strategic road network) are susceptible to landslides and this is above previous assessments. Second, a novel user-equilibrium traffic model is developed using UK Census origin-destination tables. The traffic model calculates the additional travel time and cost (i.e. indirect impacts) caused by network disruptions due to landslide events. The model is applied to calculate the impact of historic scenarios and for sets of plausible landslide events generated using the landslide susceptibility model. Impact assessments for historic scenarios are 29 to 83 % greater than previous, including £1.2 million of indirect impacts over 15 days of disruption at the A83 Rest and Be Thankful landslide October 2007. The model results indicate that the average impact of landslides is £64 k per day of disruption, and up to £130 k per day on the most critical road segments in Scotland. In addition to identifying critical road segments with both high impact and high susceptibility to landslides, the study indicates that the impact of landslides is concentrated away from urban centres to the central and north-west regions of Scotland that are heavily reliant on road and haulage-based industries such as seasonal tourism, agriculture and craft distilling. The third research element is the development of landslide initiation thresholds using weather radar data. The thresholds classify the rainfall conditions that are most commonly associated with landslide occurrence in Scotland, improving knowledge of the physical initiation processes and their likelihood. The thresholds are developed using a novel optimal-point threshold selection technique, high resolution radar and new rain variables that provide spatio-temporally normalised thresholds. The thresholds highlight the role of the 12-day antecedent hydrological condition of soils as a precursory factor in controlling the rain conditions that trigger landslides. The new results also support the observation that landslides occur more frequently in the UK during the early autumn and winter seasons when sequences or clustering of multiple cyclonic-storm systems is common in periods lasting 5 to 15 days. Fourth, the three previous elements are combined to evaluate the landslide hazard of the strategic road segments and a prototype risk assessment model is produced - a catastrophe model. The catastrophe model calculates the annual average loss and aggregated exceedance probability of losses due to the indirect impact of landslides in Scotland. Beyond application to cost-benefit analyses for landslide mitigation efforts, the catastrophe model framework is applicable to the study of other natural hazards (e.g. flooding), combinations of hazards, and other infrastructure networks

Investigating the performance of transport infrastructure using real-time data and a scalable multi-modal agent based model

The idea that including more information in more dynamic and iterative ways is central to the promise of the big data paradigm. The hope is that via new data sources, such as remote sensors and mobile phones, the reliance on heavily simplified generalised functions for model inputs will be erased. This trade between idealised and actual empirical data will be matched with dynamic models which consider complexity at a fundamental level, inherently mirroring the systems they are attempting to replicate. Cloud computing brings the possibility of doing all of this, in less time than the simplified macro models of the past, thus enabling better answers and at the time of critical decision making junctures. This research was task driven - the question of high speed rail versus aviation led to an investigation into the simplifications and assumptions that back up many of the commonly held beliefs on the sustainability of different modes of transport. The literature ultimately highlighted the need for context specific information; actual load factors, actual journey times considering traffic/engineering works and so on. Thus, rather than being explicitly an exercise in answering a specific question, a specific question was used to drive the development of a tool which may hold promise for answering a range of transportation related questions. The original contributions of this work are, firstly the use of real-time data sources to quantify temporally and spatially dynamic network performance metrics (eg. journey times on different transport models) and secondly to organise these data sources in a framework which can handle the volume and type of the data and organise the data in a way so that it is useful for the dynamic agent based modelling of future scenarios.EPSRC I Case Studentship with Ove Arup & Partner

Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks - OMCO NET

The mini conference “Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks” focuses on advanced methods for search and optimisation applied to wireless communication networks. It is sponsored by Research & Enterprise Fund Southampton Solent University. The conference strives to widen knowledge on advanced search methods capable of optimisation of wireless communications networks. The aim is to provide a forum for exchange of recent knowledge, new ideas and trends in this progressive and challenging area. The conference will popularise new successful approaches on resolving hard tasks such as minimisation of transmit power, cooperative and optimal routing

IENE 2020 International Conference LIFE LINES – Linear Infrastructure Networks with Ecological Solutions. Abstract Book

In the past 12 to 14 of January 2021, the University of Évora, in the framework of the LIFE LINES project, and the Infrastructure and Ecology Network Europe held the online event IENE International Conference, under the theme “LIFE LINES – Linear Infrastructure Networks with Ecological Solutions”. We had 293 attendees from 40 different countries representing the five continents. During three days, participants were able to assist to 115 full oral presentations, 36 lightning talks, 13 workshops and chat with 40 posters authors, representing studies and projects worldwide. The event counted with 50 thematic sessions, running in five parallel sessions mixing live and pre-recorded interventions

GIS-based decision support systems to minimise soil impacts in logging operations

Mechanised logging operations can leave negative impacts, like ruts, on forest soils. To avoid this, forestry planners and machine operators need decision support systems that can estimate soil trafficability and help to minimise soil impacts. The main objective of this thesis was to evaluate whether or how different data, stored in a geographic information system (GIS), can contribute to improved estimation of soil trafficability. Requirements for implementation of soil trafficability maps in forestry GIS applications were also described. A soil trafficability map, based on several GIS data using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), was proposed in Paper I. Availability and implementation of soil trafficability maps, mainly depth-to-water (DTW) maps, in some European countries, was reviewed in Paper II. Effect of DTW map resolutions to predict soil moisture was evaluated in Paper IV, and the study showed that a spatial resolution of 1–2 m was sufficient. Risk for rutting was analysed in relation to field-measured and GIS data in Papers III, V and VI. GIS data included digital elevation models, DTW maps, hydrological data, soil type, and clay content maps. The results showed that planning forwarder trails and evaluating different alternatives can be improved by using a soil trafficability map. GIS data of high quality is required to achieve acceptable results. Easy or free access to soil trafficability maps facilitate their application in forestry operations. DTW maps, together with other data, can be used to estimate risk for rutting. Clay content maps and hydrological data, at current resolution, need further development but showed potential to predict risk for rutting. More studies are required to estimate temporal and spatial variability of soil trafficability maps. In conclusion, GIS-based decision support systems should be used for planning of logging operations to minimise risk for rutting

Network Centralities in Polycentric Urban Regions: Methods for the Measurement of Spatial Metrics

The primary aim of this thesis is to explain the complex spatial organisations of polycentric urban regions (PURs). PURs are a form of regional morphology that often evolves from post-industrial structures and describe a subnational area featuring a plurality of urban centres. As of today, the analysis of the spatial organisation of PURs constitutes a hitherto uncharted territory. This is due to PURs’ inherent complexity that poses challenges for their conceptualisation. In this context, this thesis reviews theories on the spatial organisation of regions and cities and seeks to make a foundational methodological contribution by joining space syntax and central place theory in the conceptualisation of polycentric urban regions. It takes into account human agency embedded in the physical space, as well as the reciprocal effect of the spatial organisation for the emergence of centralities and demonstrates how these concepts can give insights into the fundamental regional functioning. The thesis scrutinises the role that the spatial organisation plays in such regions, in terms of organising flows of goods and people, ordering locational occupation and fostering centres of commercial activity. It proposes a series of novel measurements and techniques to analyse large and messy datasets. This includes a method for the application of large-scale volunteered geographic information in street network analysis. This is done, in the context of two post-industrial regions: the German Ruhr Valley and the British Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Yorkshire region. The thesis’ contribution to the understanding of regional spatial organisation and the study of regional morphology lies in the identification of spatial structural features of socio-economic potentials of regions and particular areas within them. It constitutes the first comparative study of comprehensive large-scale regional spatial networks and presents a framework for the analysis of regions and the evaluation of the predictive potential of spatial networks for socio-economic patterns and the location of centres in regional contexts

Landscape functional connectivity and animal movement: application of remote sensing for increasing efficiency of road mitigation measures

Roads are a major threat to wildlife due to induced mortality and restrictions to animal movement. A central issue in conservation biology is the accurate site identification for the implementation of multispecies mitigation measures, on roads. Those measures entail high costs and methodological challenges and their efficiency highly depend on the right location. The aim of this PhD is to inform, through remote sensing and connectivity modelling, how to increase the efficiency of planning mitigation measures to reduce roadkill and promote connectivity; and demonstrate the usefulness of remote sensing in defining suitable areas for the conservation of an endangered species that often occurs in the vicinity of roads. To do so, we first assessed whether occurrence-based strategies were able to infer functional connectivity, compared to those more complex and financially demanding based on telemetry, with respect to daily and dispersal movements. Secondly, we assessed whether remote sensing data were sufficiently informative to identify key habitats for a threatened species around road verges. Thirdly, we assessed the predictive and prioritisation ability of road mitigation units intercepting multispecies corridors to prevent vulnerability to roadkill. Findings revealed that simple models are suitable as complex ones for both daily and dispersal movements, allowing for costly-effective connectivity assessments. Results demonstrated the ability of free remote sensing data to identify microhabitat conditions in verges and surrounding landscape, for a threatened rodent, allowing for the delimitation of refugee areas and definition of monitoring strategies for the species. Undemanding data (occurrence and remote sensing) were able to describe species-specific ecological requirements for birds, bats and non-flying mammals as well as roadkill patterns, possibly due to similar overlapping corridors and habitats, despite some mismatches that occurred for highly mobile species. This framework ensured high efficiency in prioritisation of multispecies roadkill mitigation planning, resilient to long-term landscape dynamics; Conectividade funcional da paisagem e movimento animal: aplicação da detecção remota para aumentar a eficiência de medidas de mitigação em estradas. Resumo: As estradas constituem uma enorme ameaça para a vida selvagem devido à mortalidade. Uma questão central é a identificação dos locais para implementar medidas de mitigação multiespécies, em estradas. Essas medidas envolvem custos elevados e desafios metodológicos e sua eficiência depende muito da localização correcta. O objetivo deste doutoramento é informar, através de detecção remota e conectividade, como aumentar a eficiência do planeamento de medidas de mitigação para reduzir atropelamentos e promover a conectividade; e demonstrar a utilidade da detecção remota na definição de áreas adequadas para a conservação de espécies ameaçadas que podem ocorrer nas proximidades de estradas. Portanto, primeiro avaliamos se os dados resultantes de amostragens simples eram capazes de inferir conectividade funcional, em comparação com estratégias complexas, respeito aos movimentos diários e de dispersão. Segundo, avaliamos se os dados de detecção remota eram suficientemente informativos para identificar habitats-chave para uma espécie ameaçada em torno das margens das estradas. Terceiro, avaliamos a capacidade preditiva e de prioritização das unidades de mitigação de estradas que cruzam corredores multi-espécies para reduzir o risco de atropelamentos. Os resultados revelaram que os modelos simples são adequados quanto os complexos para os movimentos diários e de dispersão. Os resultados demonstraram a capacidade dos dados de detecção remota gratuitos em identificar condições de microhabitats nos habitats de berma e na paisagem circundante, para um roedor ameaçado, permitindo a delimitação de áreas de refúgio. Dados pouco exigentes (ocorrência e detecção remota) foram capazes de descrever os requisitos ecológicos específicos de aves, morcegos e mamíferos não voadores, bem como padrões de atropelamentos, possivelmente devido a corredores e habitats semelhantes, apesar de haver algumas incompatibilidades para espécies de maior mobilidade. Essa estrutura foi capaz de garantir uma elevada eficiência na prioritização de planeamento de mitigação de atropelamentos para multi-espécies, resiliente à dinâmica da paisagem de longo prazo