Spatial-Temporal Stochasticity of Electric Vehicles in Integrated Traffic and Power System

A penetration of a large number of electric vehicles for charging their batteries in the grid can have a negative impact to the grid. To prevent a negative effect to the grid, the behavior of electric vehicles must be accurately modeled and their charging schedules must be coordinated. Therefore, it is necessary to determine where and how much charge is available in electric vehicles in the distribution system. In this thesis, a state transition algorithm is designed to determine a stochastic model of electric vehicles to simulate electric vehicle movement in an integrated traffic and power network. Dijkstra’s algorithm is used to determine the shortest distance between end-user residential and office areas. An uncoordinated and semi-coordinated charging technique are used to charge electric vehicles at different time intervals at different charging stations based on their driving patterns. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the effect of uncertainty in driving behavior. Results show that uncoordinated charging techniques generate new peaks in the load profile of each node in the distribution system and cause undervoltage problems in the power network. The semi-coordinated charging technique introduces a delay in the charging time to shift electric vehicle charging loads to off-peak times. Hence, with the semi-coordinated charging method, it is unnecessary to immediately upgrade the distribution network infrastructure to avoid network overloading

Dynamic Modeling and Real-time Management of a System of EV Fast-charging Stations

Demand for electric vehicles (EVs), and thus EV charging, has steadily increased over the last decade. However, there is limited fast-charging infrastructure in most parts of the world to support EV travel, especially long-distance trips. The goal of this study is to develop a stochastic dynamic simulation modeling framework of a regional system of EV fast-charging stations for real-time management and strategic planning (i.e., capacity allocation) purposes. To model EV user behavior, specifically fast-charging station choices, the framework incorporates a multinomial logit station choice model that considers charging prices, expected wait times, and detour distances. To capture the dynamics of supply and demand at each fast-charging station, the framework incorporates a multi-server queueing model in the simulation. The study assumes that multiple fast-charging stations are managed by a single entity and that the demand for these stations are interrelated. To manage the system of stations, the study proposes and tests dynamic demand-responsive price adjustment (DDRPA) schemes based on station queue lengths. The study applies the modeling framework to a system of EV fast-charging stations in Southern California. The results indicate that DDRPA strategies are an effective mechanism to balance charging demand across fast-charging stations. Specifically, compared to the no DDRPA scheme case, the quadratic DDRPA scheme reduces average wait time by 26%, increases charging station revenue (and user costs) by 5.8%, while, most importantly, increasing social welfare by 2.7% in the base scenario. Moreover, the study also illustrates that the modeling framework can evaluate the allocation of EV fast-charging station capacity, to identify stations that require additional chargers and areas that would benefit from additional fast-charging stations

Traffic-Aware Ecological Cruising Control for Connected Electric Vehicle

The advent of intelligent connected technology has greatly enriched the capabilities of vehicles in acquiring information. The integration of short-term information from limited sensing range and long-term information from cloud-based systems in vehicle motion planning and control has become a vital means to deeply explore the energy-saving potential of vehicles. In this study, a traffic-aware ecological cruising control (T-ECC) strategy based on a hierarchical framework for connected electric vehicles in uncertain traffic environments is proposed, leveraging the two distinct temporal-dimension information. In the upper layer that is dedicated for speed planning, a sustainable energy consumption strategy (SECS) is introduced for the first time. It finds the optimal economic speed by converting variations in kinetic energy into equivalent battery energy consumption based on long-term road information. In the lower layer, a synthetic rolling-horizon optimization control (SROC) is developed to handle real-time traffic uncertainties. This control approach jointly optimizes energy efficiency, battery life, driving safety, and comfort for vehicles under dynamically changing traffic conditions. Notably, a stochastic preceding vehicle model is presented to effectively capture the uncertainties in traffic during the driving process. Finally, the proposed T-ECC is validated through simulations in both virtual and real-world driving conditions. Results demonstrate that the proposed strategy significantly improves the energy efficiency of the vehicle

Smart Sustainable Mobility: Analytics and Algorithms for Next-Generation Mobility Systems

To this date, mobility ecosystems around the world operate on an uncoordinated, inefficient and unsustainable basis. Yet, many technology-enabled solutions that have the potential to remedy these societal negatives are already at our disposal or just around the corner. Innovations in vehicle technology, IoT devices, mobile connectivity and AI-powered information systems are expected to bring about a mobility system that is connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE). In order to fully leverage the sustainability opportunities afforded by CASE, system-level coordination and management approaches are needed. This Thesis sets out an agenda for Information Systems research to shape the future of CASE mobility through data, analytics and algorithms (Chapter 1). Drawing on causal inference, (spatial) machine learning, mathematical programming and reinforcement learning, three concrete contributions toward this agenda are developed. Chapter 2 demonstrates the potential of pervasive and inexpensive sensor technology for policy analysis. Connected sensing devices have significantly reduced the cost and complexity of acquiring high-resolution, high-frequency data in the physical world. This affords researchers the opportunity to track temporal and spatial patterns of offline phenomena. Drawing on a case from the bikesharing sector, we demonstrate how geo-tagged IoT data streams can be used for tracing out highly localized causal effects of large-scale mobility policy interventions while offering actionable insights for policy makers and practitioners. Chapter 3 sets out a solution approach to a novel decision problem faced by operators of shared mobility fleets: allocating vehicle inventory optimally across a network when competition is present. The proposed three-stage model combines real-time data analytics, machine learning and mixed integer non-linear programming into an integrated framework. It provides operational decision support for fleet managers in contested shared mobility markets by generating optimal vehicle re-positioning schedules in real time. Chapter 4 proposes a method for leveraging data-driven digital twin (DT) frameworks for large multi-stage stochastic design problems. Such problem classes are notoriously difficult to solve with traditional stochastic optimization. Drawing on the case of Electric Vehicle Charging Hubs (EVCHs), we show how high-fidelity, data-driven DT simulation environments fused with reinforcement learning (DT-RL) can achieve (close-to) arbitrary scalability and high modeling flexibility. In benchmark experiments we demonstrate that DT-RL-derived designs result in superior cost and service-level performance under real-world operating conditions

An Overview of Modeling Approaches Applied to Aggregation-Based Fleet Management and Integration of Plug-in Electric Vehicles †

The design and implementation of management policies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) need to be supported by a holistic understanding of the functional processes, their complex interactions, and their response to various changes. Models developed to represent different functional processes and systems are seen as useful tools to support the related studies for different stakeholders in a tangible way. This paper presents an overview of modeling approaches applied to support aggregation-based management and integration of PEVs from the perspective of fleet operators and grid operators, respectively. We start by explaining a structured modeling approach, i.e., a flexible combination of process models and system models, applied to different management and integration studies. A state-of-the-art overview of modeling approaches applied to represent several key processes, such as charging management, and key systems, such as the PEV fleet, is then presented, along with a detailed description of different approaches. Finally, we discuss several considerations that need to be well understood during the modeling process in order to assist modelers and model users in the appropriate decisions of using existing, or developing their own, solutions for further applications

Exploring the future Electric Vehicle market and its impacts with an agent-based spatial integrated framework: A case study of Beijing, China

This paper investigates the potential expansion and impacts of Electric Vehicle (EV) market in Beijing, China at the micro level with an agent-based integrated urban model (SelfSim-EV), considering the interactions, feedbacks and dynamics found in the complex urban system. Specifically, a calibrated and validated SelfSim-EV Beijing model was firstly used to simulate how the EV market might expand in the context of urban evolution from 2016 to 2020, based on which the potential impacts of EV market expansion on the environment, power grid system and transportation infrastructures were assessed at the multiple resolutions. The results suggest that 1) the adoption rate of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) increases over the period, whereas the rate of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) almost remains the same; Furthermore, the so-called neighbour effects appear to influence the uptake of BEVs, based on the spatial analyses of the residential locations of BEV owners; 2) the EV market expansion could eventually benefit the environment, as evident from the slight decrease in the amounts of HC, CO and CO2 emissions after 2017; 3) Charging demand accounting for around 4% of total residential electricity demand in 2020 may put slight pressure on the power grid system; 4) the EV market expansion could influence several EV-related transport facilities, including parking lots, refuelling stations, and charging posts at parking lots, in terms of quantity, layout and usage. These results are expected to be useful for different EV-related stakeholders, such as local authorities and manufacturers, to shape polices and invest in technologies and infrastructures for EVs