Multi-criteria GIS analysis for siting of small wind power plants : a case study from Berlin

Scientific summary One of the main issues to be solved for the 21st century is the energy generation from renewable sources. In particular, wind energy has a large potential and is one of the most advanced technologies currently available. However, in many cases wind energy is restricted to large wind parks with wind power plants often reaching heights greater than 100 m. In areas with high population density such as cities, where many obstacles like buildings are present, the construction of large wind power plants is often problematic. In such areas, small wind power plants are an alternative due to their lower starting wind speeds and higher flexibility in terms of logistics, costs and space-demand. Small wind power plants are wind power plants with an output power smaller than or equal to 100 kW and/or a rotor area less than 200 m². Presently, small wind power plants are mainly used on roof tops of buildings in European cities, if at all. The capital of Germany, Berlin, can serve as a typical example of this issue as large wind power plants have been declared as unsuitable for the Berlin area. The present study attempts to contribute to small wind power site assessment in Berlin by performing a GIS-based overlay analysis for small wind power plants on free space and in addition on electric power poles, which can serve as supporting towers for small wind power plants. The focus of the GIS-based overlay analysis lies on a safety and performance point of view, including factors such as wind speed for three different power plant heights (10, 20 and 30 m), land use, distance to power line network, safety distance to buildings and wind shed/turbulences distance to buildings. The latter two depend on the regarded wind power plant height. Even though the overlay analysis technique and associated weight criteria (rank and ratio scale based weights) and decision rules (simple additive weighting) used in this study are chosen to be transparent and simple, they have been proven to be useful to investigate the influence of the included assessment factors on suitability. As a result of the study, it is shown show that up to 9% of the total area of Berlin is suitable for small wind power plants with a height ≥ 20 m. Interestingly, the suitable areas are very scattered throughout the area of Berlin. Furthermore, up to 28% of Berlin's power poles are suitable to serve as constructional bases for small wind power plant rotors. This result is a pointer for other communities to utilise power poles and other pole type structures, such as telephone poles, antennas, etc for the erection of small wind power plant rotors. Finally, the results of this study emphasise the flexibility and potential of unconventional, decentralized wind power generation in cities such as Berlin, especially when compared to large wind power plant farm installationsPopular summary Energy generation from renewable sources is one of the main issues to be solved for the 21st century. One of the most advanced technologies currently available is wind energy, which has a large potential onshore and offshore. However, in many cases wind energy is restricted to large wind parks with wind power plants sometimes exceeding heights of 100 m. The construction of large wind power plants is often problematic in areas with high population density such as cities, where many obstacles like buildings are present. In contrast, the lower starting wind speeds and higher flexibility in terms of logistics, costs and space-demand make small wind power plants a true alternative in such highly populated areas. Per definition small wind power plants are wind power plants with an output power smaller than or equal to 100 kW and/or a rotor area less than 200 m². If at all, small wind power plants are mainly used on roof tops of buildings in European cities presently. A typical example of this issue is the capital of Germany, Berlin, as large wind power plants have been declared as unsuitable for its area. The present study attempts to contribute to small wind power site assessment in Berlin by utilisation of a geographical information system (GIS) incorporating spatial information about performance and safety, but also economic, social and ecological aspects. The different aspects were combined into suitability maps providing information about the quantity and locations of good spots for small wind power plants in Berlin. In addition, the potential of Berlin's electric power poles, which can serve as supporting towers for small wind power plants, was assessed. As a result of the study, up to 9% of the total area of Berlin was rated as suitable for small wind power plants with a height ≥ 20 m. Thereby, the suitable areas are very scattered throughout the area of Berlin. Assuming a density of one micro wind power plant (power output ≤ 5 kW) per hectare the potential of small wind power plant energy production could be as much as 40 MW equalling to 4% of Berlin's energy supply needs. This number could be even increased, if more efficient wind power plants and installations on roof tops were considered. Moreover, up to 28% of Berlin's power poles are suitable to serve as constructional bases for small wind power plant rotors. This result is a pointer for other cities and communities to utilise power poles and other pole type structures, such as telephone poles, antennas, etc. for the installation of small wind power plant rotors. The results of this study underline the potential and flexibility of decentralized power generation from small wind power plants in cities such as Berlin; in particular when compared to large wind power plant farm installations

Impact of market design and social acceptance on the regional distribution of wind energy - simulation results for Germany

In Germany, in 2017 the support scheme for renewables changed to capacity auctions for wind power. While in theory auctions have a high degree of overall target fulfilment, the regional distribution of investments varies based on the implemented market designs. Results from 2017 show that changes in market design lead to a significant shift of investments in the south of Germany: While previously support schemes incentivised investments, in 2017 almost no wind projects were accepted. This paper investigates the regional distribution of investments into wind energy, when different designs of capacity auctions are implemented. The modelling approach draws on a parallel analysis of technical potential, expected revenues and social acceptance to determine economic wind power investments. The European electricity model REMix is then used to simulate investments in wind energy in order to analyze: What measures and incentives on a German/European level could be beneficial to meet regional targets? Overview: In recent years social acceptance of investment projects for renewables, power plants and power lines have gained significant attention by sociologists and policy makers. Results of previous studies show (Sonnberger 2017), that with regard to wind energy people tend to have a considerably high level of trust and acceptance of wind power projects in general. However, when wind power stations are planed close to settlements, the level of acceptance decreases sharply. Policy makers in Germany (in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria) therefore proposed to "avoid acceptance problems" by introducing a minimum distance of wind farms to settlements. The paper therefore aims to answer the following questions: - How can public acceptance be integrated into the analysis of wind investments? Which measures and market incentives can increase public acceptance for additional investments into wind power? - What incentives provide different remuneration schemes and auction design on the regional distribution of wind energy? - What regulatory measures and incentives on a German and European level could be beneficial to reach the regional targets (e.g. the states targets)? (here: targets of the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg) The analysis was conducted for Germany and the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Methods: The selected modelling approach consists of three parts: 1. Technical potential: A geodata (GIS) based analysis has been used to investigate the technical potential of wind power in different regions in Germany. The model REMix-Endat uses a high resolution spatial analysis and determines potential areas within Germany, where investments into additional wind farms could talke place. The calculation is based on distance from settlements, infrastructure, type of landscape (landcover data), slope and altitude . In a second step the model determines, based on historic windspeeds, the estimated hourly feed-in of renewables in future years for these different locations. 2. Market design and incentives: In a second step, a modell analyzing the long term investment incentives from different political frameworks and market designs will be investigated for different regions and types of locations. The model determines the expected net present value for each location. 3. Public acceptance: Aspects of public acceptance will be integrated into the model. While general acceptance for wind is high, local acceptance must be accomplished to enable investments. Two path for increasing local acceptance are investigated: Avoiding acceptance problems in the first place and creating distributional fairness and trust. The effect of both measures on the energy system and long term investments are investigated. Technical potential, market incentives and results from the acceptance analysis are integrated into the European energy system model REMix. Based on the estimated hourly dispatch and price estimates for representative years up to 2050, an overall potential can be determined for each location. The modell depicts investments - it especially adds wind (an PV) capacity to meet the renewable targets for Germany. A first analysis of market design and incentives for investments and detailed description can be found in Borggrefe (2018). This paper extends the model and focuses on the integration of aspects of "public acceptance" Results: Creating acceptance by "avoiding acceptance problems" as it is proposed/implemented by some states in Germany will not provide sufficient areas for wind power onshore. Investments into other more expensive renewable technologies will increase costs of electricity procurement. A second set of scenarios analyses the impact of a "fair distribution" of wind capacity across all regions in Germany on market results, system stability and target fulfillment. In the coming decades this will lead to increasing costs for investment and remuneration. In the long run the resulting energy system also provides benefits, because cost extensive investments into grid can be saved

Frequency and duration of low-wind-power events in Germany

In the transition to a renewable energy system, the occurrence of low-wind-power events receives increasing attention. We analyze the frequency and duration of such events for onshore wind power in Germany, based on 40 years of reanalysis data and open software. We find that low-wind-power events are less frequent in winter than in summer, but the maximum duration is distributed more evenly between months. While short events are frequent, very long events are much rarer. Every year, a period of around five consecutive days with an average wind capacity factor below 10% occurs, and every ten years a respective period of nearly eight days. These durations decrease if only winter months are considered. The longest event in the data lasts nearly ten days. We conclude that public concerns about low-wind-power events in winter may be overrated, but recommend that modeling studies consider multiple weather years to properly account for such events.Comment: This is an update version after peer revie

Prospects for pumped-hydro storage in Germany

After a period of hibernation, the development of pumpedâ€hydro storage plants in Germany regains momentum. Motivated by an ever increasing share of intermittent renewable generation, a variety of energy players considers new projects, which could increase the available capacity by up to 60% until the end of the decade. This paper analyzes the current development and evaluates the revenue potential as well as possible barriers. Overall, the prospects for new pumpedâ€hydro storage plants have improved, even though profitability remains a major challenge.pumped-hydro energy storage, power plant investment, Germany

Sustainable land use against the background of a growing wind power industry

Among the measures discussed as remedies for CO2 emissions reduction renewable energies are prominent as they already provide marketable alternatives to fossil fuels. This holds true especially for wind power, which has multiplied more than twelve-fold on the global scale from 4,800 MW to over 59,000 MW between 1995 and 2005. This is the highest growth rate compared to all other sources of renewable energy. However, is this impressive expansion expected to continue in the near future? Although wind power as a clean technology helps to combat global warming and, as a renewable energy reduces the dependency on the supply of exhaustible fossil fuels, it is not without flaws. There are concerns over adverse effects on human beings, on wildlife and on the landscape. This paper discusses the limits for wind power generation and highlights important conflict areas that may roadblock further expansion of wind power and thus its potential to combat global warming. --

Spatially and Temporally Explicit Energy System Modelling to Support the Transition to a Low Carbon Energy Infrastructure – Case Study for Wind Energy in the UK

Renewable energy sources and electricity demand vary with time and space and the energy system is constrained by the location of the current infrastructure in place. The transitioning to a low carbon energy society can be facilitated by combining long term planning of infrastructure with taking spatial and temporal characteristics of the energy system into account. There is a lack of studies addressing this systemic view. We soft-link two models in order to analyse long term investment decisions in generation, transmission and storage capacities and the effects of short-term fluctuation of renewable supply: The national energy system model UKTM (UK TIMES model) and a dispatch model. The modelling approach combines the benefits of two models: an energy system model to analyse decarbonisation pathways and a power dispatch model that can evaluate the technical feasibility of those pathways and the impact of intermittent renewable energy sources on the power market. Results give us the technical feasibility of the UKTM solution from 2010 until 2050. This allows us to determine lower bounds of flexible elements and feeding them back in an iterative process (e.g. storage, demand side control, balancing). We apply the methodology to study the long-term investments of wind infrastructure in the United Kingdom

Renewable electricity generation and transmission network developments in light of public opposition: Insights from Ireland. ESRI Working Paper No. 653 March 2020

This paper analyses how people’s attitudes towards onshore wind power and overhead transmission lines affect the costoptimal development of electricity generation mixes, under a high renewable energy policy. For that purpose, we use a power systems generation and transmission expansion planning model, combined with information on public attitudes towards energy infrastructure on the island of Ireland. Overall, households have a positive attitude towards onshore wind power but their willingness to accept wind farms near their homes tends to be low. Opposition to overhead transmission lines is even greater. This can lead to a substantial increase in the costs of expanding the power system. In the Irish case, costs escalate by more than 4.3% when public opposition is factored into the constrained optimisation of power generation and grid expansion planning across the island. This is mainly driven by the compounded effects of higher capacity investments in more expensive technologies such as offshore wind and solar photovoltaic to compensate for lower levels of onshore wind generation and grid reinforcements. The results also reveal the effect of public opposition on the value of onshore wind, via shadow prices. The higher the level of public opposition, the higher the shadow value of onshore wind. And, this starkly differs across regions: regions with more wind resource or closest to major demand centres have the highest shadow prices. The shadow costs can guide policy makers when designing incentive mechanisms to garner public support for onshore wind installations