13,342 research outputs found
Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is fast becoming the dominant paradigm in social simulation due primarily to a worldview that suggests that complex systems emerge from the bottom-up, are highly decentralised, and are composed of a multitude of heterogeneous objects called agents. These agents act with some purpose and their interaction, usually through time and space, generates emergent order, often at higher levels than those at which such agents operate. ABM however raises as many challenges as it seeks to resolve. It is the purpose of this paper to catalogue these challenges and to illustrate them using three somewhat different agent-based models applied to city systems. The seven challenges we pose involve: the purpose for which the model is built, the extent to which the model is rooted in independent theory, the extent to which the model can be replicated, the ways the model might be verified, calibrated and validated, the way model dynamics are represented in terms of agent interactions, the extent to which the model is operational, and the way the model can be communicated and shared with others. Once catalogued, we then illustrate these challenges with a pedestrian model for emergency evacuation in central London, a hypothetical model of residential segregation tuned to London data which elaborates the standard Schelling (1971) model, and an agent-based residential location built according to spatial interactions principles, calibrated to trip data for Greater London. The ambiguities posed by this new style of modelling are drawn out as conclusions
BCAS: A Web-enabled and GIS-based Decision Support System for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Breast Cancer
For decades, geographical variations in cancer rates have been observed but the precise determinants of such geographic differences in breast cancer development are unclear. Various statistical models have been proposed. Applications of these models, however, require that the data be assembled from a variety of sources, converted into the statistical models’ parameters and delivered effectively to researchers and policy makers. A web-enabled and GIS-based system can be developed to provide the needed functionality. This article overviews the conceptual web-enabled and GIS-based system (BCAS), illustrates the system’s use in diagnosing and treating breast cancer and examines the potential benefits and implications for breast cancer research and practice
Modeling urban evolution by identifying spatiotemporal patterns and applying methods of artificial intelligence.Case study: Athens, Greece.
While during the past decades, urban areas experience constant slow population growth, the spatial patterns they form, by means of their limits and borders, are rapidly changing in a complex way. Furthermore, urban areas continue to expand to the expense of "rural” intensifying urban sprawl. The main aim of this paper is the definition of the evolution of urban areas and more specifically, the specification of an urban model, which deals simultaneously with the modification of population and building use patterns. Classical theories define city geographic border, with the Aristotelian division of 0 or 1 and are called fiat geographic boundaries. But the edge of a city and the urbanization "degree" is something not easily distinguishable. Actually, the line that city ends and rural starts is vague. In this respect a synthetic spatio - temporal methodology is described which, through the adaptation of different computational methods aims to assist planners and decision makers to gain an insight in urban - rural transition. Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks are recruited to provide a precise image of spatial entities, further exploited in a twofold way. First for analysis and interpretation of up - to - date urban evolution and second, for the formulation of a robust spatial simulation model, the theoretical background of which is that the spatial contiguity between members of the same or different groups is one of the key factors in their evolution. The paper finally presents the results of the model application in the prefecture of Attica in Greece, unveiling the role of the Athens Metropolitan Area to its current and future evolution, by illustrating maps of urban growth dynamics.urban growth; urban dynamics; neural networks; fuzzy logic; Greece; Athens
Planning Support Systems: Progress, Predictions, and Speculations on the Shape of Things to Come
In this paper, we review the brief history of planning support systems, sketching the way both the fields of planning and the software that supports and informs various planning tasks have fragmented and diversified. This is due to many forces which range from changing conceptions of what planning is for and who should be involved, to the rapid dissemination of computers and their software, set against the general quest to build ever more generalized software products applicable to as many activities as possible. We identify two main drivers – the move to visualization which dominates our very interaction with the computer and the move to disseminate and share software data and ideas across the web. We attempt a brief and somewhat unsatisfactory classification of tools for PSS in terms of the planning process and the software that has evolved, but this does serve to point up the state-ofthe- art and to focus our attention on the near and medium term future. We illustrate many of these issues with three exemplars: first a land usetransportation model (LUTM) as part of a concern for climate change, second a visualization of cities in their third dimension which is driving an interest in what places look like and in London, a concern for high buildings, and finally various web-based services we are developing to share spatial data which in turn suggests ways in which stakeholders can begin to define urban issues collaboratively. All these are elements in the larger scheme of things – in the development of online collaboratories for planning support. Our review far from comprehensive and our examples are simply indicative, not definitive. We conclude with some brief suggestions for the future
A sketch planning methodology for determining interventions for bicycle and pedestrian crashes: an ecological approach
Bicycle and pedestrian safety planning have recently been gaining increased attention. With this focus, however, comes increased responsibilities for planning agencies and organizations tasked with evaluating and selecting safety interventions, a potentially arduous task given limited staff and resources. This study presents a sketch planning framework based on ecological factors that attempts to provide an efficient and effective method of selecting appropriate intervention measures. A Chicago case study is used to demonstrate how such a method may be applied
Spatial Economic Analysis in Data-Rich Environments
Controlling for spatial effects in micro-economic studies of consumer and producer behavior necessitates a range of analytical modifications ranging from modest changes in data collection and the definition of variables to dramatic changes in the modeling of consumer and producer decision-making. This paper discusses conceptual, empirical, and data issues involved in modeling the spatial aspects of economic behavior in data rich environments. Attention is given to established and emerging agricultural economic applications of spatial data and spatial econometric methods at the micro-scale. Recent applications of individual and household data are featured, including models of land-use change at the urban-rural interface, agricultural land values, and technological change and technology adoption.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C21, Q10, Q12, Q15, Q56,
Towards automated knowledge-based mapping between individual conceptualisations to empower personalisation of Geospatial Semantic Web
Geospatial domain is characterised by vagueness, especially in the semantic disambiguation of the concepts in the domain, which makes defining universally accepted geo- ontology an onerous task. This is compounded by the lack of appropriate methods and techniques where the individual semantic conceptualisations can be captured and compared to each other. With multiple user conceptualisations, efforts towards a reliable Geospatial Semantic Web, therefore, require personalisation where user diversity can be incorporated. The work presented in this paper is part of our ongoing research on applying commonsense reasoning to elicit and maintain models that represent users' conceptualisations. Such user models will enable taking into account the users' perspective of the real world and will empower personalisation algorithms for the Semantic Web. Intelligent information processing over the Semantic Web can be achieved if different conceptualisations can be integrated in a semantic environment and mismatches between different conceptualisations can be outlined. In this paper, a formal approach for detecting mismatches between a user's and an expert's conceptual model is outlined. The formalisation is used as the basis to develop algorithms to compare models defined in OWL. The algorithms are illustrated in a geographical domain using concepts from the SPACE ontology developed as part of the SWEET suite of ontologies for the Semantic Web by NASA, and are evaluated by comparing test cases of possible user misconceptions
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