Spatial Growth and Industry Age

U.S. county data for the last 20 or 30 years show that manufacturing employment has been deconcentrating. In contrast, the service sector exhibits concentration in counties with intermediate levels of employment. This paper presents a theory where local sectoral growth is driven by technological diffusion across space. The age of an industry -- measured as the time elapsed since the last major general purpose technology innovation in the sector -- determines the pattern of scale dependence in growth rates. Young industries exhibit non-monotone relationships between employment levels and growth rates, while old industries experience negative scale dependence in growth rates. The model then predicts that the relationship between county employment growth rates and county employment levels in manufacturing at the turn of the 20th century should be similar to the same relationship in services in the last 20 years. We provide evidence consistent with this prediction.

Spatial growth and industry age

U.S. county data for the last 20 or 30 years show that manufacturing employment has been deconcentrating. In contrast, the service sector exhibits concentration in counties with intermediate levels of employment. This paper presents a theory where local sectoral growth is driven by technological diffusion across space. The age of an industry -- measured as the time elapsed since the last major general purpose technology innovation in the sector -- determines the pattern of scale dependence in growth rates. Young industries exhibit non-monotone relationships between employment levels and growth rates, while old industries experience negative scale dependence in growth rates. The model then predicts that the relationship between county employment growth rates and county employment levels in manufacturing at the turn of the 20th century should be similar to the same relationship in services in the last 20 years. We provide evidence consistent with this predictio

Description and spatial analysis of employment change in New Zealand regions 1986-2001

Over the last two decades New Zealand has undergone fundamental economic restructuring, and phases of slow and rapid growth, which have resulted in some dramatic changes in the regional economies. This paper provides a detailed multiperiod shift-share analysis over three intercensal periods between 1986 and 2001 on changes in regional employment outcomes at two levels of spatial disaggregation: 29 Administrative Regions (ARs), based on Regional Council areas, and 58 Labour Market Areas (LMAs) that have economically meaningful (commuting determined) boundaries. The contributions to employment outcomes of national trends, sectoral composition within regions, structural change, and local conditions are identified. A four-category disaggregation of regional employment into sex, age, occupation and industry is also undertaken. The results show a dichotomy between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, but also several distinct clusters among the latter. Regional competitive advantage is clearly linked with net inward migration. There is also evidence of significantly positive spatial autocorrelation in the competitive effect. Local indicators of spatial association help to identify regions that stand out in terms of being surrounded by similar regions, or by regions that are just the opposite, in terms of the competitive effect. Interestingly, regional population growth precedes the competitive component of employment growth rather than just being a symptom of it

Human capital, innovation and the productive ageing: growth and senior aged health in the regional community through engaged higher education

[Abstract]: This paper examines how low relative economic growth and high service and infrastructure costs in non-metropolitan regions that are increasingly attractive to lifestyle-seeking seniors, can be offset by focussing more positively on the human capital dimension of this cohort through closer engagement with higher education learning and innovation. At present, many senior-aged persons attracted to ‘lifestyle’ locations are allowed to let their knowledge, networks and skills ossify through a lack of engagement with processes of learning and innovation and institutional impediments of a structural and attitudinal nature. It represents poor return on sunk investment in human capital, has cost impacts on enabling health and community services and infrastructure and does not contribute as positively as it could to regional growth outcomes through productivity gains. The spatial impact of this will exacerbate as the demographic profile of the nation continues to age. Higher education in these places could be a key instrument in the learning and innovation required to realise the greater productivity gains from senior-aged human capital and the consequential growth and health outcomes at the local and regional scale. The paper reports on the literature, research undertaken and analysis to understand these potentially important issues of policy and practice. The paper has a particular focus on the Sunshine Coast and Wide Bay Burnett regions of Queensland which have some of the highest concentrations of senior aged people in Australia

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: France Case Study

The paper examines the patterns of internal migration and population change in France over the recent decades at departément and commune scales. Regional population change is controlled by both natural increase and internal migration. There are two differing patterns of natural increase: north and east France has higher natural increase and south and east has lower. The geographic pattern of internal migration has changed substantially over the last 50 years, most dramatically in the Île-de-France, which showed the highest gains between 1954 and 1962 but the highest losses between 1975 and 1982. Urban growth, which was strong in the 1950s and 1960s, reversed in the 1970s favouring small towns but recovered slightly in the last 20 years. Migration gains and losses show a quite complicated pattern of depopulation of city centres combined with slow suburbanisation and advanced periurbanisation. Periurbanisation is evident in Paris region and in nearly all large urban agglomerations. Most other cities show suburbanisation or periurbanisation at various stages of development. Out-migration shows a clear division of the country into a northern part with higher rates, and a central and southern part of the country with lower out-migration. This simple pattern is modified by higher out-migration from some cities such as Lyon or Clermont-Ferrand and from isolated rural communes scattered all over the country. Out-migration also has a regional dimension: there are shifts towards more attractive areas, in particular Alpine region and Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts. Analysis of migration between size bands of rural and urban units shows a significant deconcentration process, and a similar pattern characterises migration between population density bands. The general movement is down the urban/density band hierarchy, from higher to lower urban/density bands. Deep rural areas are not attractive and excluded from the process of counterurbanisation. In addition, unemployment was found to have a strong and very efficient impact on migration behaviour. Analysis for 1990-1999 leads to slight modification of this picture: a slow recovery of central parts of the largest urban agglomerations and less differentiated patterns than in the 1980s. Deconcentration of the French population continues but is less powerful

Investigation into the causes and possible remedies for the registered surveyor shortage in regional Queensland

Aims: The aims of the research were to identify whether there is a shortage of surveyors in regional Queensland, the impacts of a surveyor shortage, the demographics of registered surveyors and Spatial Science students, the processes of becoming a registered surveyor and ways of increasing surveyor numbers in regional Queensland. Methodology: A literature review was conducted on the shortage of surveyors in regional Queensland and the process of becoming a registered surveyor. Professionals within the industry were also consulted on these matters. A questionnaire was then designed to meet the aims of the research and distributed to Spatial Science students studying at the University of Southern Queensland and Queensland University of Technology online. Outcomes and Benefits: There is a shortage of surveyors in regional Queensland that may have a substantial impact on the industry. Increasing enrolment numbers through improved marketing to high school students has been identified as an effective remedy to address surveyor shortages.There are also ways of enticing Spatial Science students into taking up positions in regional Queensland upon graduatio

The effect of R&D growth on employment and self-employment in local labour markets

The paper investigates the effects of firms’ investment in Research and Development (R&D) on employment dynamics in the British local labour markets (Travel to Work Areas). We distinguish between local areas characterised by the initial level of routinised employment of the workforce. We implement a instrumenting strategy to address endogeneity issues in the relation between innovation and employment. Our results suggest that increases in R&D investments mainly affect routinised areas, where the employment created is low skilled, concentrated in non-tradable sectors (like transport, construction) and services. A significant share of the jobs created is self-employment, concentrated in the 25-34 age cohort. We qualify the effect of R&D on self-employment by looking at local firms’ dynamics, which suggest that the increase in self-employment is reflected in a higher number of micro-firms. Rather, in non-routinized areas, R&D results in the expected increase in the demand of high-skilled workers and a reduced demand of low-skill employment

Critical Events and Labour Mobility: Relocations in the Wake of the Ansett Airlines collapse

Migration plays an important role in neo-liberal regional adjustment. This paper explores the role of economic shocks in stimulating internal migration within Australia. Drawing on the experiences of retrenched Ansett airlines employees, it argues that economic crisis impels some households to relocate but traps others in places with restricted employment prospects. For some, the crisis of retrenchment triggers inter-State migration to take up new jobs. For others, it prompts relocation to less expensive housing, often in a geographically proximate location. These opposing responses, which are different outcomes of similar causal processes, exacerbate regional inequalities as they selectively encourage younger skilled workers to enter growing regions. The combination of high housing costs and insecure employment discourages speculative migration. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the policy implications of these findings

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: United Kingdom Case Study

This case study examines recent population change patterns and internal migration activity in the United Kingdom. A wealth of knowledge about population dynamics in Britain is revealed. The spatial patterns of population change and net migration are intricate mosaics of gains and losses. Gains and losses in population were principally determined by net internal migration. The decade long population change patterns and one year long migration patterns were in close agreement. This was surprising in view of temporal instability in population change and migration patterns. The dominant spatial pattern was one of deconcentration from the cores of city regions to hinterlands for both the largest metropolises and also their subsidiary partner cities. There were also signs of loss in population and migrants in declining resource regions(former mining areas, fishing ports) and gains in new resource frontiers - particularly in northeast Scotland reflecting the vigorous development of onshore facilities for the offshore oil and gas fields of the North Sea. The pattern of overall population and migrant redistribution was predominantly that of the middle labour force/family ages reinforced at much lower mobility levels but with sharper patterns of redistribution by the pre-retirement and retirement ages. People in the young adult ages in contrast redistributed to different destinations, showing a unique shift to the dense neighbourhoods of big cities. With respect to the urban system, there was significant redistribution both downward and outward. Downward redistribution meant shifts from large metropolitan cities to medium and small sized freestanding cities. Outward redistribution meant shifts to the outer commuting rings around cities, often deep into the countryside, This was not a return to the rural idyll, merely the expansion of the daily urban systems to cover most of lowland Britain. Strong preferences for low density living were revealed by shifts towards districts in Rural Areas and by net flows to low density wards and sectors. Similar strong shifts out of areas of above average into below average unemployment were detected, though both relationships with density and unemployment were either not present or weak for young adults. Some ambiguity was revealed in the fortunes of Inner London areas. Migration data from the 1991 Census showed intense outward movement. Downward population shifts were on a lesser scale because of the compensating effects of higher than average natural increase and high immigration. However, a re-analysis of 1991 population by ONS led to a substantial upward revision of London borough populations, and so places doubt on the size of outward shift of population through internal migration