From the Hands of an Early Adopter's Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods' Lifetime Survival

One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution, and lifetime in the form of goods. In "real" economies, a perfect model for the circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods' circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to "real life" and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected characteristics of early adopters.Comment: 28 page

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban-rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both models can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, 4 table

The effect of friends’ churn on consumer behavior in mobile networks

We study how consumers decide which tariff plan to choose and whether to churn when their friends churn in the mobile industry. We develop a theoretical model showing conditions under which users remain with their carrier and conditions under which they churn when their friends do. We then use a large and rich anonymized longitudinal panel of call detailed records to characterize the consumers’ path to death with unprecedented level of detail. We explore the structure of the network inferred from these data to derive instruments for friends’ churn, which is typically endogenous in network settings. This allows us to econometrically identify the effect of peer influence in our setting. On average, we find that each additional friend that churns increases the monthly churn rate by 0.06 percent. The observed monthly churn rate across our dataset is 2.15 percent. We also find that firms introducing the pre-paid tariff plans that charge the same price to call users inside and outside the carrier help retain consumers that would otherwise churn. In our setting, without this tariff plan the monthly churn rate could have been as high as 8.09 percent. We perform a number of robustness checks, in particular to how we define friends in the social graph, and show that our results remain unchanged. Our paper shows that the traditional definition of customer lifetime value underestimates the value of consumers and, in particular, that of consumers with more friends due to the effect of contagious churn and, therefore, managers should actively take into account the structure of the social network when prioritizing whom to target during retention campaigns.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Multimedia delivery in the future internet

The term “Networked Media” implies that all kinds of media including text, image, 3D graphics, audio and video are produced, distributed, shared, managed and consumed on-line through various networks, like the Internet, Fiber, WiFi, WiMAX, GPRS, 3G and so on, in a convergent manner [1]. This white paper is the contribution of the Media Delivery Platform (MDP) cluster and aims to cover the Networked challenges of the Networked Media in the transition to the Future of the Internet. Internet has evolved and changed the way we work and live. End users of the Internet have been confronted with a bewildering range of media, services and applications and of technological innovations concerning media formats, wireless networks, terminal types and capabilities. And there is little evidence that the pace of this innovation is slowing. Today, over one billion of users access the Internet on regular basis, more than 100 million users have downloaded at least one (multi)media file and over 47 millions of them do so regularly, searching in more than 160 Exabytes1 of content. In the near future these numbers are expected to exponentially rise. It is expected that the Internet content will be increased by at least a factor of 6, rising to more than 990 Exabytes before 2012, fuelled mainly by the users themselves. Moreover, it is envisaged that in a near- to mid-term future, the Internet will provide the means to share and distribute (new) multimedia content and services with superior quality and striking flexibility, in a trusted and personalized way, improving citizens’ quality of life, working conditions, edutainment and safety. In this evolving environment, new transport protocols, new multimedia encoding schemes, cross-layer inthe network adaptation, machine-to-machine communication (including RFIDs), rich 3D content as well as community networks and the use of peer-to-peer (P2P) overlays are expected to generate new models of interaction and cooperation, and be able to support enhanced perceived quality-of-experience (PQoE) and innovative applications “on the move”, like virtual collaboration environments, personalised services/ media, virtual sport groups, on-line gaming, edutainment. In this context, the interaction with content combined with interactive/multimedia search capabilities across distributed repositories, opportunistic P2P networks and the dynamic adaptation to the characteristics of diverse mobile terminals are expected to contribute towards such a vision. Based on work that has taken place in a number of EC co-funded projects, in Framework Program 6 (FP6) and Framework Program 7 (FP7), a group of experts and technology visionaries have voluntarily contributed in this white paper aiming to describe the status, the state-of-the art, the challenges and the way ahead in the area of Content Aware media delivery platforms

Modelling revenue generation in a dynamically priced mobile telephony service

Dynamic pricing has been used extensively in specific markets for many years but recent years have seen an interest in the utilization of this approach for the deployment of novel and attractive tariff structures for mobile communication services. This paper describes the development and operation of an agent based model (ABM) for subscriber behavior in a dynamically priced mobile telephony network. The design of the ABM was based on an analysis of real call detail records recorded in a Uganda mobile telephony network in which dynamic pricing was deployed. The ABM includes components which simulate subscriber calling behavior, mobility within the network and social linkages. Using this model, this paper reports on an investigation of a number of alternative strategies for the dynamic pricing algorithm which indicate that the network operator will likely experience revenue losses ranging from a 5 %, when the pricing algorithm is based on offering high value subscriber cohort enhanced random discounts compared to a lower value subscriber cohort, to 30 %, when the priding algorithm results in the discount on offer in a cell being inversely proportional to the contemporary cell load. Additionally, the model appears to suggest that the use of optimization algorithms to control the level of discount offered in cells would likely result in discount simply converging to a “no-discount” scenario. Finally, commentary is offered on additional factors which need to be considered when interpreting the results of this work such as the impact of subscriber churn on the size of the subscriber base and the technical and marketing challenges of deploying the various dynamic pricing algorithms which have been investigated

Creating an entrepreneurial region: exploring the entrepreneurial capacity of the East Midlands

This paper explores the notion of the entrepreneurial region and, in particular, the relevance and appropriateness of this concept to the East Midlands. An outline framework is developed that depicts aspects and dimensions of an entrepreneurial region. This is then applied to the East MIdlands to gauge how entrepreneurial the region is

A unified framework for traditional and agent-based social network modeling

In the last sixty years of research, several models have been proposed to explain (i) the formation and (ii) the evolution of networks. However, because of the specialization required for the problems, most of the agent-based models are not general. On the other hand, many of the traditional network models focus on elementary interactions that are often part of several different processes. This phenomenon is especially evident in the field of models for social networks. Therefore, this chapter presents a unified conceptual framework to express both novel agent-based and traditional social network models. This conceptual framework is essentially a meta-model that acts as a template for other models. To support this meta-model, the chapter proposes a different kind of agent-based modeling tool that we specifically created for developing social network models. The tool the authors propose does not aim at being a general-purpose agent-based modeling tool, thus remaining a relatively simple software system, while it is extensible where it really matters. Eventually, the authors apply this toolkit to a novel problem coming from the domain of P2P social networking platforms

A P2P Platform for real-time multicast video streaming leveraging on scalable multiple descriptions to cope with bandwidth fluctuations

In the immediate future video distribution applications will increase their diffusion thanks tothe ever-increasing user capabilities and improvements in the Internet access speed and performance.The target of this paper is to propose a content delivery system for real-time streaming services based ona peer-to-peer approach that exploits multicast overlay organization of the peers to address thechallenges due to bandwidth heterogeneity. To improve reliability and flexibility, video is coded using ascalable multiple description approach that allows delivery of sub-streams over multiple trees andallows rate adaptation along the trees as the available bandwidth changes. Moreover, we have deployeda new algorithm for tree-based topology management of the overlay network. In fact, tree based overlaynetworks better perform in terms of end-to-end delay and ordered delivery of video flow packets withrespect to mesh based ones. We also show with a case study that the proposed system works better thansimilar systems using only either multicast or multiple trees

A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF COMPUTATIONAL METHODS IN AND RESEARCH TAXONOMY OF HOMOPHILY IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Homophily is both a principle for social group formation with like-minded people as well as a mechanism for social interactions. Recent years have seen a growing body of management research on homophily particularly on large-scale social media and digital platforms. However, the predominant traditional qualitative and quantitative methods employed face validity issues and/or are not well-suited for big social data. There are scant guidelines for applying computational methods to specific research domains concerning descriptive patterns, explanatory mechanisms, or predictive indicators of homophily. To fill this research gap, this paper offers a structured review of the emerging literature on computational social science approaches to homophily with a particular emphasis on their relevance, appropriateness, and importance to information systems research. We derive a research taxonomy for homophily and offer methodological reflections and recommendations to help inform future research