Changes in Snow Phenology from 1979 to 2016 over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Snowmelt from the Tianshan Mountains (TS) is a major contributor to the water resources of the Central Asian region. Thus, changes in snow phenology over the TS have significant implications for regional water supplies and ecosystem services. However, the characteristics of changes in snow phenology and their influences on the climate are poorly understood throughout the entire TS due to the lack of in situ observations, limitations of optical remote sensing due to clouds, and decentralized political landscapes. Using passive microwave remote sensing snow data from 1979 to 2016 across the TS, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of snow phenology and their attributes and implications. The results show that the mean snow onset day (Do), snow end day (De), snow cover duration days (Dd), and maximum snow depth (SDmax) from 1979 to 2016 were the 78.2nd day of hydrological year (DOY), 222.4th DOY, 146.2 days, and 16.1 cm over the TS, respectively. Dd exhibited a spatial distribution of days with a temperature of \u3c0 \u3e°C derived from meteorological station observations. Anomalies of snow phenology displayed the regional diversities over the TS, with shortened Dd in high-altitude regions and the Fergana Valley but increased Dd in the Ili Valley and upper reaches of the Chu and Aksu Rivers. Increased SDmax was exhibited in the central part of the TS, and decreased SDmax was observed in the western and eastern parts of the TS. Changes in Dd were dominated by earlier De, which was caused by increased melt-season temperatures (Tm). Earlier De with increased accumulation of seasonal precipitation (Pa) influenced the hydrological processes in the snowmelt recharge basin, increasing runoff and earlier peak runoff in the spring, which intensified the regional water crisi

Evaluating Consistency of Snow Water Equivalent Retrievals from Passive Microwave Sensors over the North Central U. S.: SSM/I vs. SSMIS and AMSR-E vs. AMSR2

For four decades, satellite-based passive microwave sensors have provided valuable snow water equivalent (SWE) monitoring at a global scale. Before continuous long-term SWE records can be used for scientific or applied purposes, consistency of SWE measurements among different sensors is required. SWE retrievals from two passive sensors currently operating, the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), have not been fully evaluated in comparison to each other and previous instruments. Here, we evaluated consistency between the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) onboard the F13 Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and SSMIS onboard the F17 DMSP, from November 2002 to April 2011 using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) for continuity. Likewise, we evaluated consistency between AMSR-E and AMSR2 SWE retrievals from November 2007 to April 2016, using SSMIS for continuity. The analysis is conducted for 1176 watersheds in the North Central U.S. with consideration of difference among three snow classifications (Warm forest, Prairie, and Maritime). There are notable SWE differences between the SSM/I and SSMIS sensors in the Warm forest class, likely due to the different interpolation methods for brightness temperature (Tb) between the F13 SSM/I and F17 SSMIS sensors. The SWE differences between AMSR2 and AMSR-E are generally smaller than the differences between SSM/I and SSMIS SWE, based on time series comparisons and yearly mean bias. Finally, the spatial bias patterns between AMSR-E and AMSR2 versus SSMIS indicate sufficient spatial consistency to treat the AMSR-E and AMSR2 datasets as one continuous record. Our results provide useful information on systematic differences between recent satellite-based SWE retrievals and suggest subsequent studies to ensure reconciliation between different sensors in long-term SWE records

Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment

Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006

Multiscale assimilation of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS snow water equivalent and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover fraction observations in northern Colorado

Eight years (2002–2010) of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–EOS (AMSR-E) snow water equivalent (SWE) retrievals and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction (SCF) observations are assimilated separately or jointly into the Noah land surface model over a domain in Northern Colorado. A multiscale ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used, supplemented with a rule-based update. The satellite data are either left unscaled or are scaled for anomaly assimilation. The results are validated against in situ observations at 14 high-elevation Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites with typically deep snow and at 4 lower-elevation Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites. Assimilation of coarse-scale AMSR-E SWE and fine-scale MODIS SCF observations both result in realistic spatial SWE patterns. At COOP sites with shallow snowpacks, AMSR-E SWE and MODIS SCF data assimilation are beneficial separately, and joint SWE and SCF assimilation yields significantly improved root-mean-square error and correlation values for scaled and unscaled data assimilation. In areas of deep snow where the SNOTEL sites are located, however, AMSR-E retrievals are typically biased low and assimilation without prior scaling leads to degraded SWE estimates. Anomaly SWE assimilation could not improve the interannual SWE variations in the assimilation results because the AMSR-E retrievals lack realistic interannual variability in deep snowpacks. SCF assimilation has only a marginal impact at the SNOTEL locations because these sites experience extended periods of near-complete snow cover. Across all sites, SCF assimilation improves the timing of the onset of the snow season but without a net improvement of SWE amounts

Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment

Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006

A Review of Global Satellite-Derived Snow Products

Snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere plays a crucial role in the Earth's hydrology and surface energy balance, and modulates feedbacks that control variations of global climate. While many of these variations are associated with exchanges of energy and mass between the land surface and the atmosphere, other expected changes are likely to propagate downstream and affect oceanic processes in coastal zones. For example, a large component of the freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean comes from snow melt. The timing and magnitude of this flux affects biological and thermodynamic processes in the Arctic Ocean, and potentially across the globe through their impact on North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Several recent global remotely sensed products provide information at unprecedented temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions. In this article we review the theoretical underpinnings and characteristics of three key products. We also demonstrate the seasonal and spatial patterns of agreement and disagreement amongst them, and discuss current and future directions in their application and development. Though there is general agreement amongst these products, there can be disagreement over certain geographic regions and under conditions of ephemeral, patchy and melting snow

Downscaling Coarse Resolution Satellite Passive Microwave SWE Estimates

The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of seasonal snow and its impact on socio-economic and environmental functionality make accurate, real-time estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) important for hydrological and climatological predictions. Passive microwave remote sensing offers a cost effective, temporally and spatially consistent approach to SWE monitoring at the global to regional scale. However, local scale estimates are subject to large errors given the coarse spatial resolution of passive microwave observations (25 x 25 km). Regression downscaling techniques can be implemented to increase the spatial resolution of gridded datasets with the use of related auxiliary datasets at a finer spatial resolution. These techniques have been successfully implemented to remote sensing datasets such as soil moisture estimates, however, limited work has applied such techniques to snow-related datasets. This thesis focuses on assessing the feasibility of using regression downscaling to increase the spatial resolution of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Globsnow SWE product in the Red River basin, an agriculturally important region of the northern United States that is widely recognized as a suitable location for passive microwave remote sensing research. Multiple Linear (MLR), Random Forest (RFR) and Geographically Weighted (GWR) regression downscaling techniques were assessed in a closed loop experiment using Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) SWE estimates at a 1 x 1 km spatial resolution. SNODAS SWE data for a 5-year period between 2013-2018 was aggregated to a 25 x 25 km spatial resolution to match Globsnow. The three regression techniques were applied using correlative datasets to downscale the aggregated SNODAS data back to the original 1 x 1 km spatial resolution. By comparing the downscaled SNODAS estimates to the original SNODAS data, it was found that RFR downscaling produced much less variation in downscaled results, and lower RMSE values throughout the study period when compared to MLR and GWR downscaling techniques, indicating it was the optimal downscaling method. RFR downscaling was then implemented on daily Globsnow SWE estimates for the same time period. The downscaled SWE results were evaluated using SNODAS SWE as well as in situ derived SWE estimates from weather stations within the study region. Spatial and temporal errors were assessed using both the SNODAS and in situ reference datasets and overall RMSEs of 21 mm and 37 mm were found, respectively. It was observed that the southern regions of the basin and seasons with higher downscaled SWE estimates were associated with higher errors with overestimation being the most common bias throughout the region. A major contribution of this study is the illustration that RFR downscaling of Globsnow SWE estimates is a feasible approach to understanding the seasonal dynamics of SWE in the Red River basin. This is extremely beneficial for local communities within the basin for flood management and mitigation and water resource management

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationThis dissertation examines three separate data analysis studies which sought to estimate the spatial and temporal characteristics of seasonal snowpack variables in the mountainous areas of the western United States. Research began with the analysis of historical daily snow data from Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites, located in the mountainous areas of the western United States. Three snowpack characteristics were analyzed from a climatological perspective: snow water equivalent (SWE); snow depth (SD); and snow density, all three being interrelated. Analysis of 7 years of data showed that at a given location, during the winter season, interannual snowpack density variability was smaller than the corresponding SD and SWE changes. Hence, reliable climatological estimates of snow density could be obtained from a relatively short record period. Additionally, the spatial pattern of snowpack densi fication was qualitatively characterized using cluster analysis. The second part of research developed a regional regression-based approach to creating monthly climatological SWE grids over the western United States. The western United States was partitioned into smaller, homogenous regions in consideration of seasonal snowpack accumulation and ablation processes. Using stepwise regression, various geographic and meteorological variables were investigated as potential predictors of change in climatological SWE within each subregion. Results indicate that a simple regional regression approach, coupled with readily available geographic and meteorological parameters as predictors, is reliable for mapping SWE climatology from October to March. For the period of April, however, the regional equations produced increased error, especially in the North Pacifi c and Southwest regions. Lastly, performance of space-borne passive microwave SWE retrieval algorithms for the Colorado River Basin was examined by comparing daily SWE estimates from selected algorithms with SNOTEL SWE measurements for each winter month

Tundra Snow Cover Properties from \u3cem\u3eIn-Situ\u3c/em\u3e Observation and Multi-Scale Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

Tundra snow cover is important to monitor as it influences local, regional, and global scale surface water balance, energy fluxes, and ecosystem and permafrost dynamics. Moreover, recent global circulation models (GCM) predict a pronounced shift in high latitude winter precipitation and mean annual air temperature due to the feedback between air temperature and snow extent. At regional and hemispheric scales, the estimation of snow extent, snow depth and, snow water equivalent (SWE) is important because high latitude snow cover both forces and reacts to atmospheric circulation patterns. Moreover, snow cover has implications on soil moisture dynamics, the depth, formation and growth of the permafrost active layer, the vegetation seasonality, and the respiration of C02. In Canada, daily snow depth observations are available from 1955 to present for most meteorological stations. Moreover, despite the abundance and dominance of a northern snow cover, most, if not all, long term snow monitoring sites are located south of 550N. Stations in high latitudes are extremely sparse and coastally biased. In Arctic regions, it can be logistically difficult and very expensive to acquire both spatially and temporally extensive in-situ snow data. Thus, the possibility of using satellite remote sensing to estimate snow cover properties is appealing for research in remote northern regions. Remote sensing techniques have been employed to monitor the snow since the 1960s when the visible light channels were used to map snow extent. Since then, satellite remote sensing has expanded to provide information on snow extent, depth, wetness, and SWE. However, the utility of satellite sensors to provide useful, operational tundra snow cover data depends on sensor parameters and data resolution. Passive microwave data are the only currently operational sources for providing estimates of dry snow extent, SWE and snow depth. Currently, no operational passive microwave algorithms exist for the spatially expansive tundra and high Arctic regions. The heterogeneity of sub-satellite grid tundra snow and terrain are the main limiting factors in using conventional SWE retrieval algorithm techniques. Moreover, there is a lack of in-situ data for algorithm development and testing. The overall objective of this research is to improve operational capabilities for estimating end of winter, pre-melt tundra SWE in a representative tundra study area using satellite passive microwave data. The study area for the project is located in the Daring-Exeter-Yamba portion of the Upper-Coppermine River Basin in the Northwest Territories. The size, orientation and boundaries of the study area were defined based on the satellite EASE grid (25 x 25 km) centroid located closest to the Tundra Ecosystem Research Station operated by the Government of the Northwest Territories. Data were collected during intensive late winter field campaigns in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. During each field campaign, snow depth, density and stratigraphy were recorded at sites throughout the study area. During the 2005 and 2008 seasons, multi-scale airborne passive microwave radiometer data were also acquired. During the 2007 season, ground based passive microwave radiometer data were acquired. For each year, temporally coincident AMSR-E satellite Tb were obtained. The spatial distribution of snow depth, density and SWE in the study area is controlled by the interaction of blowing snow with terrain and land cover. Despite the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover, several inter-annual consistencies were identified. Tundra snow density is consistent when considered on a site-by-site basis and among different terrain types. A regional average density of 0.294 g/cm3 was derived from the six years of measurements. When applied to site snow depths, there is little difference in SWE derived from either the site or the regional average density. SWE is more variable from site to site and year to year than density which requires the use of a terrain based Classification to better quantify regional SWE. The variability in SWE was least on lakes and flat tundra, while greater on slopes and plateaus. Despite the variability, the interannual ratios of SWE among different terrain types does not change that much. The variability (CV) in among terrain categories was quite similar. The overall weighted mean CV for the study area was 0.40, which is a useful regional generalization. The terrain and landscape based classification scheme was used to generalize and extrapolate tundra SWE. Deriving a weighted mean SWE based on the spatial proportion of landscape and terrain features was shown as a method for generalizing the regional distribution of tundra SWE. The SWE data from each year were compared to AMSR-E satellite Tb. Within each season and among each of the seasons, there was little difference in 19 GHz Tb. However, there was always a large decrease in 37 GHz Tb from early November through April. The change in ΔTb37-19 throughout each season showed that the Tb at 37 GHz is sensitive to parameters which evolve over a winter season. A principal component analysis (PCA) showed that there are differences in ΔTb37-19 among different EASE grids and that land cover may have an influence on regional Tb. However, the PCA showed little relationship between end of season ΔTb37-19 and lake fraction. A good relationship was found between ΔTb37-19 and in-situ SWE. A quadratic function was fitted to explain 89 percent of the variance in SWE from the ΔTb37-19. The quadratic relationship provides a good fit between the data; however, the nature of the relationship is opposite to the expected linear relationship between ΔTb37-19 and SWE. Airborne Tb data were used to examine how different snow, land cover and terrain properties influence microwave emission. In flat tundra, there was a significant relationship between SWE and high resolution ΔTb37-19. On lakes and slopes, no strong relationships were found between SWE and high resolution ΔTb37-19. Due to the complexity of snow and terrain in high resolution footprints, it was a challenge to isolate a relationship between SWE and Tb. However, as the airborne footprint size increased the amplitude of variability in Tb decrease considerably to the point that Tb in large footprints is not sensitive to local scale variability in SWE. As such, most of the variability evident in the high and mid resolution airborne data will not persist at the EASE grid scale. Despite the many challenges, algorithm development should be possible at the satellite scale. The AMSR-E ΔTb37-19 changes from year to year in response to differences in snow cover properties. However, the multiple years of in-situ snow data remain the most important contribution in linking Tb with SWE