8,642 research outputs found

    Surge pricing on a service platform under spatial spillovers: evidence from Uber

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    Ride-sharing platforms employ surge pricing to match anticipated capacity spillover with demand. We develop an optimization model to characterize the relationship between surge price and spillover. We test predicted relationships using a spatial panel model on a dataset from Ubers operation. Results reveal that Ubers pricing accounts for both capacity and price spillover. There is a debate in the management community on the ecacy of labor welfare mechanisms associated with shared capacity. We conduct counterfactual analysis to provide guidance in regards to the debate, for managing congestion, while accounting for consumer and labor welfare through this online platform.First author draf

    Synergistic Interactions of Dynamic Ridesharing and Battery Electric Vehicles Land Use, Transit, and Auto Pricing Policies

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    It is widely recognized that new vehicle and fuel technology is necessary, but not sufficient, to meet deep greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions goals for both the U.S. and the state of California. Demand management strategies (such as land use, transit, and auto pricing) are also needed to reduce passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and related GHG emissions. In this study, the authors explore how demand management strategies may be combined with new vehicle technology (battery electric vehicles or BEVs) and services (dynamic ridesharing) to enhance VMT and GHG reductions. Owning a BEV or using a dynamic ridesharing service may be more feasible when distances to destinations are made shorter and alternative modes of travel are provided by demand management strategies. To examine potential markets, we use the San Francisco Bay Area activity based travel demand model to simulate business-as-usual, transit oriented development, and auto pricing policies with and without high, medium, and low dynamic ridesharing participation rates and BEV daily driving distance ranges. The results of this study suggest that dynamic ridesharing has the potential to significantly reduce VMT and related GHG emissions, which may be greater than land use and transit policies typically included in Sustainable Community Strategies (under California Senate Bill 375), if travelers are willing pay with both time and money to use the dynamic ridesharing system. However, in general, large synergistic effects between ridesharing and transit oriented development or auto pricing policies were not found in this study. The results of the BEV simulations suggest that TODs may increase the market for BEVs by less than 1% in the Bay Area and that auto pricing policies may increase the market by as much as 7%. However, it is possible that larger changes are possible over time in faster growing regions where development is currently at low density levels (for example, the Central Valley in California). The VMT Fee scenarios show larger increases in the potential market for BEV (as much as 7%). Future research should explore the factors associated with higher dynamic ridesharing and BEV use including individual attributes, characteristics of tours and trips, and time and cost benefits. In addition, the travel effects of dynamic ridesharing systems should be simulated explicitly, including auto ownership, mode choice, destination, and extra VMT to pick up a passenger

    An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

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    In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

    Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

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    Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure
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