Vulnerability assessment using remote sensing: The earthquake prone megacity Istanbul, Turkey

Hazards like earthquakes are natural, disasters are not. Disasters result from the impact of a hazard on a vulnerable system or society at a specific location. The framework of vulnerability aims at a holistic concept taking physical, environmental, socio-economic and political components into account. This paper focuses on the capabilities of remote sensing to contribute up-to-date spatial information to the physical dimension of vulnerability for the complex urban system of the megacity Istanbul, Turkey. An urban land cover classification based on high resolution satellite data establishes the basis to analyse the spatial distribution of different types of buildings, the carrying capacity of the street network or the identification of open spaces. In addition, a DEM (Digital Elevation Model) enables a localization of potential landslide areas. A methodology to combine these attributes related to the physical dimension of vulnerability is presented. In this process an n-dimensional coordinate system plots the variables describing vulnerability against each other. This enables identification of the degree of vulnerability and the vulnerability-determining factors for a specific location. This assessment of vulnerability provides a broad spatial information basis for decision-makers to develop mitigation strategies

Evaluating regional emission estimates using the TRACE-P observations

Measurements obtained during the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment are used in conjunction with regional modeling analysis to evaluate emission estimates for Asia. A comparison between the modeled values and the observations is one method to evaluate emissions. Based on such analysis it is concluded that the inventory performs well for the light alkanes, CO, ethyne, SO2, and NOₓ. Furthermore, based on model skill in predicting important photochemical species such as O₃, HCHO, OH, HO₂, and HNO₃, it is found that the emissions inventories are of sufficient quality to support preliminary studies of ozone production. These are important finding in light of the fact that emission estimates for many species (such as speciated NMHCs and BC) for this region have only recently been estimated and are highly uncertain. Using a classification of the measurements built upon trajectory analysis, we compare observed species distributions and ratios of species to those modeled and to ratios estimated from the emissions inventory. It is shown that this technique can reconstruct a spatial distribution of propane/benzene that looks remarkably similar to that calculated from the emissions inventory. A major discrepancy between modeled and observed behavior is found in the Yellow Sea, where modeled values are systematically underpredicted. The integrated analysis suggests that this may be related to an underestimation of emissions from the domestic sector. The emission is further tested by comparing observed and measured species ratios in identified megacity plumes. Many of the model derived ratios (e.g., BC/CO, SOₓ/C₂H₂) fall within ∼25% of those observed and all fall outside of a factor of 2.5. (See Article file for details of the abstract.)Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringAuthor name used in this publication: Wang, T

Principles and components of a strategic EPM process relevant to the peri-urban interface (PUI)

In the first instance the concern of this paper is with inquiring, as stated in the title of the paper, into principles and components of a strategic environmental planning and management (EPM) process relevant to the PUI. The research focuses attention in particular on the problems and needs of the poor living at the interface

Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.scenarios, megacities, risk habitat

Urbanization, housing and environment: Megacities of Africa

This paper takes a look at urbanization, housing and environment in Africa megacities; it enumerates the problems caused by the continued influx of migrant into cities, and state the government, private and public organization effort in solving these challenges. It found out that with proper management, the chilling prospect of a serious deterioration in quality of life could be averted. The report noted that continuing migration from rural to urban areas will expand the number of megacities, and it concedes that megacities are often plagued by environmental deterioration, inadequate housing, traffic congestion, social alienation slums, crime and homelessness. Etc. The paper, observed that megacities are important to a country's economic development, and also provide residents with a satisfying quality of life, if properly managed. The report looked for ways of solving the problems to a significant degree and observed that nearly in all cases, the gaps between demand and supply are management related, and recommends ways of improving the quality of citizen life by provision of adequate and quality housing, reduction in land costs, healthy environment, clean water and sanitation services, security within the city, employment opportunity, bolstering urban farming, and improving public transportation and make sure that the megacities are beneficial to the environment as well as to the national economy. The paper admits that the solutions are far from easy. It is difficult to predict what will happen if there are shortfalls in the financing of megacity growth and management

Developing a forecasting model for cholera incidence in Dhaka megacity through time series climate data

Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease spread by lack of hygiene and contaminated water, is a major public health risk in many countries. As cholera is triggered by environmental conditions influenced by climatic variables, establishing a correlation between cholera incidence and climatic variables would provide an opportunity to develop a cholera forecasting model. Considering the auto-regressive nature and the seasonal behavioral patterns of cholera, a seasonal-auto-regressive-integrated-moving-average (SARIMA) model was used for time-series analysis during 2000–2013. As both rainfall (r = 0.43) and maximum temperature (r = 0.56) have the strongest influence on the occurrence of cholera incidence, single-variable (SVMs) and multi-variable SARIMA models (MVMs) were developed, compared and tested for evaluating their relationship with cholera incidence. A low relationship was found with relative humidity (r = 0.28), ENSO (r = 0.21) and SOI (r = −0.23). Using SVM for a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature at one-month lead time showed a 7% increase of cholera incidence (p \u3c 0.001). However, MVM (AIC = 15, BIC = 36) showed better performance than SVM (AIC = 21, BIC = 39). An MVM using rainfall and monthly mean daily maximum temperature with a one-month lead time showed a better fit (RMSE = 14.7, MAE = 11) than the MVM with no lead time (RMSE = 16.2, MAE = 13.2) in forecasting. This result will assist in predicting cholera risks and better preparedness for public health management in the future