Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Mixtures of Skew-t Factor Analyzers

In this paper, we introduce a mixture of skew-t factor analyzers as well as a family of mixture models based thereon. The mixture of skew-t distributions model that we use arises as a limiting case of the mixture of generalized hyperbolic distributions. Like their Gaussian and t-distribution analogues, our mixture of skew-t factor analyzers are very well-suited to the model-based clustering of high-dimensional data. Imposing constraints on components of the decomposed covariance parameter results in the development of eight flexible models. The alternating expectation-conditional maximization algorithm is used for model parameter estimation and the Bayesian information criterion is used for model selection. The models are applied to both real and simulated data, giving superior clustering results compared to a well-established family of Gaussian mixture models

Unsupervised Learning via Mixtures of Skewed Distributions with Hypercube Contours

Mixture models whose components have skewed hypercube contours are developed via a generalization of the multivariate shifted asymmetric Laplace density. Specifically, we develop mixtures of multiple scaled shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions. The component densities have two unique features: they include a multivariate weight function, and the marginal distributions are also asymmetric Laplace. We use these mixtures of multiple scaled shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions for clustering applications, but they could equally well be used in the supervised or semi-supervised paradigms. The expectation-maximization algorithm is used for parameter estimation and the Bayesian information criterion is used for model selection. Simulated and real data sets are used to illustrate the approach and, in some cases, to visualize the skewed hypercube structure of the components

Parsimonious Shifted Asymmetric Laplace Mixtures

A family of parsimonious shifted asymmetric Laplace mixture models is introduced. We extend the mixture of factor analyzers model to the shifted asymmetric Laplace distribution. Imposing constraints on the constitute parts of the resulting decomposed component scale matrices leads to a family of parsimonious models. An explicit two-stage parameter estimation procedure is described, and the Bayesian information criterion and the integrated completed likelihood are compared for model selection. This novel family of models is applied to real data, where it is compared to its Gaussian analogue within clustering and classification paradigms