Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...

There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical, operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale

CAST – City analysis simulation tool: an integrated model of land use, population, transport and economics

The paper reports on research into city modelling based on principles of Science of Complexity. It focuses on integration of major processes in cities, such as economics, land use, transport and population movement. This is achieved using an extended Cellular Automata model, which allows cells to form networks, and operate on individual financial budgets. There are 22 cell types with individual processes in them. The formation of networks is based on supply and demand mechanisms for products, skills, accommodation, and services. Demand for transport is obtained as an emergent property of the system resulting from the network connectivity and relevant economic mechanisms. Population movement is a consequence of mechanisms in the housing and skill markets. Income and expenditure of cells are self-regulated through market mechanisms and changing patterns of land use are a consequence of collective interaction of all mechanisms in the model, which are integrated through emergence

Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations

The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded. The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded

Urban Atlas, land use modelling and spatial metric techniques

Recently, through the GMES program of ESA the Urban Atlas dataset was released. The Urban Atlas is providing pan-European comparable land use and land cover data for Large Urban Zones with more than 100.000 inhabitants as defined by the Urban Audit. The production of the various datasets started in 2009 and is expected to be completed by the end of 2011. At presently datasets for more than 150 urban areas have been released. Most importantly the datasets can be freely downloaded and distributed. The availability of such a huge dataset produced with the same standards will have a major impact on the development of urban transportation models and the comparative analysis of the urban areas across Europe. Combined with the data sets that will be developed from the various Census of population it could become the basis for the application of various models in the next ten years. In this paper two major themes are discussed. First, how the current state of art in urban modeling (behavioral, cellular automata and statistical) can use these models, what type of additional data might be needed and how these datasets can be combined with other data for developing land use transportation models. Second, spatial metric techniques are used to define indicators for the landscape that could be used for comparing the structure and the form of the various cities. In the last ten years there has been an increasing interest in applying spatial metric techniques analysis of urban environments, to examine unique spatial components of intra-and inter-city urban structure, as well as, the dynamics of change. The landscape perspective assumes abrupt transitions between individual patches that result in distinct edges. These measures provide a link between the detailed spatial structures that result from urban change processes. The spatial metric indicators were developed for several cities and are then used for a comparative study of city typologies and urban fabric characteristics.

An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment

An Ensemble Approach to Space-Time Interpolation

There has been much excitement and activity in recent years related to the relatively sudden availability of earth-related data and the computational capabilities to visualize and analyze these data. Despite the increased ability to collect and store large volumes of data, few individual data sets exist that provide both the requisite spatial and temporal observational frequency for many urban and/or regional-scale applications. The motivating view of this paper, however, is that the relative temporal richness of one data set can be leveraged with the relative spatial richness of another to fill in the gaps. We also note that any single interpolation technique has advantages and disadvantages. Particularly when focusing on the spatial or on the temporal dimension, this means that different techniques are more appropriate than others for specific types of data. We therefore propose a space- time interpolation approach whereby two interpolation methods – one for the temporal and one for the spatial dimension – are used in tandem in order to maximize the quality of the result. We call our ensemble approach the Space-Time Interpolation Environment (STIE). The primary steps within this environment include a spatial interpolator, a time-step processor, and a calibration step that enforces phenomenon-related behavioral constraints. The specific interpolation techniques used within the STIE can be chosen on the basis of suitability for the data and application at hand. In the current paper, we describe STIE conceptually including the structure of the data inputs and output, details of the primary steps (the STIE processors), and the mechanism for coordinating the data and the processors. We then describe a case study focusing on urban land cover in Phoenix, Arizona. Our empirical results show that STIE was effective as a space-time interpolator for urban land cover with an accuracy of 85.2% and furthermore that it was more effective than a single technique.

An Ensemble Approach to Space-Time Interpolation

There has been much excitement and activity in recent years related to the relatively sudden availability of earth-related data and the computational capabilities to visualize and analyze these data. Despite the increased ability to collect and store large volumes of data, few individual data sets exist that provide both the requisite spatial and temporal observational frequency for many urban and/or regional-scale applications. The motivating view of this paper, however, is that the relative temporal richness of one data set can be leveraged with the relative spatial richness of another to fill in the gaps. We also note that any single interpolation technique has advantages and disadvantages. Particularly when focusing on the spatial or on the temporal dimension, this means that different techniques are more appropriate than others for specific types of data. We therefore propose a space- time interpolation approach whereby two interpolation methods – one for the temporal and one for the spatial dimension – are used in tandem in order to maximize the quality of the result. We call our ensemble approach the Space-Time Interpolation Environment (STIE). The primary steps within this environment include a spatial interpolator, a time-step processor, and a calibration step that enforces phenomenon-related behavioral constraints. The specific interpolation techniques used within the STIE can be chosen on the basis of suitability for the data and application at hand. In the current paper, we describe STIE conceptually including the structure of the data inputs and output, details of the primary steps (the STIE processors), and the mechanism for coordinating the data and the 1 processors. We then describe a case study focusing on urban land cover in Phoenix Arizona. Our empirical results show that STIE was effective as a space-time interpolator for urban land cover with an accuracy of 85.2% and furthermore that it was more effective than a single technique.

Spatial Dynamic Modeling and Urban Land Use Transformation:

Assessing the economic impacts of urban land use transformation has become complex and acrimonious. Although community planners are beginning to comprehend the economic trade-offs inherent in transforming the urban fringe, they find it increasingly difficult to analyze and assess the trade-offs expediently and in ways that can influence local decisionmaking. New and sophisticated spatial modeling techniques are now being applied to urban systems that can quickly assess the probable spatial outcomes of given communal policies. Applying an economic impact assessment to the probable spatial patterns can provide to planners the tools needed to quickly assess scenarios for policy formation that will ultimately help inform decision makers. This paper focuses on the theoretical underpinnings and practical application of an economic impact analysis submodel developed within the Land use Evolution and Impact Assessment Modeling (LEAM) environment. The conceptual framework of LEAM is described, followed by an application of the model to the assessment of the cost of urban sprawl in Kane County, Illinois. The results show the effectiveness of spatially explicit modeling from a theoretical and a practical point of view. The agent-based approach of spatial dynamic modeling with a high spatial resolution allows for discerning the macro-level implications of micro-level behaviors. These phenomena are highlighted in the economic submodel in the discussion of the implications of land use change decisions on individual and communal costs; low-density development patterns favoring individual behaviors at the expense of the broader community.

Land-Cover and Land-Use Study Using Genetic Algorithms, Petri Nets, and Cellular Automata

Recent research techniques, such as genetic algorithm (GA), Petri net (PN), and cellular automata (CA) have been applied in a number of studies. However, their capability and performance in land-cover land-use (LCLU) classification, change detection, and predictive modeling have not been well understood. This study seeks to address the following questions: 1) How do genetic parameters impact the accuracy of GA-based LCLU classification; 2) How do image parameters impact the accuracy of GA-based LCLU classification; 3) Is GA-based LCLU classification more accurate than the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC), iterative self-organizing data analysis technique (ISODATA), and the hybrid approach; 4) How do genetic parameters impact Petri Net-based LCLU change detection; and 5) How do cellular automata components impact the accuracy of LCLU predictive modeling. The study area, namely the Tickfaw River watershed (711mi²), is located in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. The major datasets include time-series Landsat TM / ETM images and Digital Orthophoto Quarter Quadrangles (DOQQ’s). LCLU classification was conducted by using the GA, MLC, ISODATA, and Hybrid approach. The LCLU change was modeled by using genetic PN-based process mining technique. The process models were interpreted and input to a CA for predicting future LCLU. The major findings include: 1) GA-based LCLU classification is more accurate than the traditional approaches; 2) When genetic parameters, image parameters, or CA components are configured improperly, the accuracy of LCLU classification, the coverage of LCLU change process model, and/or the accuracy of LCLU predictive modeling will be low; 3) For GA-based LCLU classification, the recommended configuration of genetic / image parameters is generation 2000-5000, population 1000, crossover rate 69%-99%, mutation rate 0.1%-0.5%, generation gap 25%-50%, data layers 16-20, training / testing data size 10000-20000 / 5000-10000, and spatial resolution 30m-60m; 4) For genetic Petri nets-based LCLU change detection, the recommended configuration of genetic parameters is generation 500, population 300, crossover rate 59%, mutation rate 5%, and elitism rate 4%; and 5) For CA-based LCLU predictive modeling, the recommended configuration of CA components is space 6025 * 12993, state 2, von Neumann neighborhood 3 * 3, time step 2-3 years, and optimized transition rules