5,310 research outputs found
Enhancing Energy Production with Exascale HPC Methods
High Performance Computing (HPC) resources have become the key actor for achieving more ambitious challenges in many disciplines. In this step beyond, an explosion on the available parallelism and the use of special purpose
processors are crucial. With such a goal, the HPC4E project applies new exascale HPC techniques to energy industry simulations, customizing them if necessary, and going beyond the state-of-the-art in the required HPC exascale
simulations for different energy sources. In this paper, a general overview of these methods is presented as well as some specific preliminary results.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme (2014-2020) under the HPC4E Project (www.hpc4e.eu), grant agreement n° 689772, the Spanish Ministry of
Economy and Competitiveness under the CODEC2 project (TIN2015-63562-R), and
from the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation through Rede
Nacional de Pesquisa (RNP). Computer time on Endeavour cluster is provided by the
Intel Corporation, which enabled us to obtain the presented experimental results in
uncertainty quantification in seismic imagingPostprint (author's final draft
Benefits of spatio-temporal modelling for short term wind power forecasting at both individual and aggregated levels
The share of wind energy in total installed power capacity has grown rapidly
in recent years around the world. Producing accurate and reliable forecasts of
wind power production, together with a quantification of the uncertainty, is
essential to optimally integrate wind energy into power systems. We build
spatio-temporal models for wind power generation and obtain full probabilistic
forecasts from 15 minutes to 5 hours ahead. Detailed analysis of the forecast
performances on the individual wind farms and aggregated wind power are
provided. We show that it is possible to improve the results of forecasting
aggregated wind power by utilizing spatio-temporal correlations among
individual wind farms. Furthermore, spatio-temporal models have the advantage
of being able to produce spatially out-of-sample forecasts. We evaluate the
predictions on a data set from wind farms in western Denmark and compare the
spatio-temporal model with an autoregressive model containing a common
autoregressive parameter for all wind farms, identifying the specific cases
when it is important to have a spatio-temporal model instead of a temporal one.
This case study demonstrates that it is possible to obtain fast and accurate
forecasts of wind power generation at wind farms where data is available, but
also at a larger portfolio including wind farms at new locations. The results
and the methodologies are relevant for wind power forecasts across the globe as
well as for spatial-temporal modelling in general
Day-ahead allocation of operation reserve in composite power systems with large-scale centralized wind farms
This paper focuses on the day-ahead allocation of operation reserve considering wind power prediction error and network transmission constraints in a composite power system. A two-level model that solves the allocation problem is presented. The upper model allocates operation reserve among subsystems from the economic point of view. In the upper model, transmission constraints of tielines are formulated to represent limited reserve support from the neighboring system due to wind power fluctuation. The lower model evaluates the system on the reserve schedule from the reliability point of view. In the lower model, the reliability evaluation of composite power system is performed by using Monte Carlo simulation in a multi-area system. Wind power prediction errors and tieline constraints are incorporated. The reserve requirements in the upper model are iteratively adjusted by the resulting reliability indices from the lower model. Thus, the reserve allocation is gradually optimized until the system achieves the balance between reliability and economy. A modified two-area reliability test system (RTS) is analyzed to demonstrate the validity of the method.This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51277141) and National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2011AA05A103)
Very-short-term probabilistic wind power forecasts by sparse vector autoregression
A spatio-temporal method for producing very-short-term parametric probabilistic wind power forecasts at a large number of locations is presented. Smart grids containing tens, or hundreds, of wind generators require skilled very-short-term forecasts to operate effectively, and spatial information is highly desirable. In addition, probabilistic forecasts are widely regarded as necessary for optimal power system management as they quantify the uncertainty associated with point forecasts. Here we work within a parametric framework based on the logit-normal distribution and forecast its parameters. The location parameter for multiple wind farms is modelled as a vector-valued spatio-temporal process, and the scale parameter is tracked by modified exponential smoothing. A state-of-the-art technique for fitting sparse vector autoregressive models is employed to model the location parameter and demonstrates numerical advantages over conventional vector autoregressive models. The proposed method is tested on a dataset of 5 minute mean wind power generation at 22 wind farms in Australia. 5-minute-ahead forecasts are produced and evaluated in terms of point and probabilistic forecast skill scores and calibration. Conventional autoregressive and vector autoregressive models serve as benchmarks
Synchronization-Aware and Algorithm-Efficient Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow
One of the most common control decisions faced by power system operators is
the question of how to dispatch generation to meet demand for power. This is a
complex optimization problem that includes many nonlinear, non convex
constraints as well as inherent uncertainties about future demand for power and
available generation. In this paper we develop convex formulations to
appropriately model crucial classes of nonlinearities and stochastic effects.
We focus on solving a nonlinear optimal power flow (OPF) problem that includes
loss of synchrony constraints and models wind-farm caused fluctuations. In
particular, we develop (a) a convex formulation of the deterministic
phase-difference nonlinear Optimum Power Flow (OPF) problem; and (b) a
probabilistic chance constrained OPF for angular stability, thermal overloads
and generation limits that is computationally tractable.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure
Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow Using the Inner-Outer Approximation Approach
In recent years, there has been a huge trend to penetrate renewable energy
sources into energy networks. However, these sources introduce uncertain power
generation depending on environmental conditions. Therefore, finding 'optimal'
and 'feasible' operation strategies is still a big challenge for network
operators and thus, an appropriate optimization approach is of utmost
importance. In this paper, we formulate the optimal power flow (OPF) with
uncertainties as a chance constrained optimization problem. Since uncertainties
in the network are usually 'non-Gaussian' distributed random variables, the
chance constraints cannot be directly converted to deterministic constraints.
Therefore, in this paper we use the recently-developed approach of inner-outer
approximation to approximately solve the chance constrained OPF. The
effectiveness of the approach is shown using DC OPF incorporating uncertain
non-Gaussian distributed wind power
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